How Ole Miss has performed under Lane Kiffin in revenge spots

NCAA Football: Mississippi at Florida — Nov 23, 2024; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Mississippi Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin looks on against the Florida Gators during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Ole Miss went all-in on the 2024 college football season and built one of the most talented rosters in college football through the transfer portal. There were legitimate College Football Playoff or bust expectations. Despite having a top-5 team in most of the computer rankings, the Rebels went bust.

An outright loss as a 15-point home favorite against unranked Kentucky was a massive reason why. There has been a lot of talk this week both in Lexington and Oxford about last year’s shocking result.

“Yeah, it was horrible,” Kiffin said during his press conference with local reporters on Monday. “I mean, it was horrible on all fronts because it was such a bizarre game that, and in football, everything can go different ways, but it was like all these plays. …It’s just so many ways that game could have went our way and so many things went their way.”

“It was really hard to deal with because I just didn’t think we played that well, either, and still had the ball ahead later in the game. Then drive down, and then the missed field goal was just, it all sucked.”

Kiffin went on to admit that Ole Miss spent extra time in the offseason preparing for the matchup with Kentucky. This is a clear revenge spot for the Rebels. Many are expecting the road team to try and run up the score if they can after last year’s brutal loss. But that game last year was not the first time that Kiffin suffered an outright loss as a favorite.

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So I went back and pulled the data to see just how Ole Miss has performed under Kiffin in these revenge spots after suffering a loss to the same team as a betting favorite just a year before. Ole Miss is undefeated in these games under Kiffin but rarely do the Rebels cover the spread. There have not been any blowouts in the second meeting.

Upset Loss	Revenge Spot	Result	Record
10/17/2020 \| Ole Miss (-1) at Arkansas \| Hogs 33-21	Ole Miss (-5) vs. Arkansas	Rebels 52, Hogs 51 (10/9/2021)	1-0 (0-1 ATS)
12/19/2020 \| Ole Miss (-1) at LSU \| Tigers 53-48	Ole Miss (-8) vs. LSU	Rebels 31, Tigers 17 (10/23/2021)	2-0 (1-1 ATS)
11/19/2022 \| Ole Miss (-2) at Arkansas	Ole Miss (-13) vs. Arkansas	Rebels 27, Hogs 20 (10/7/2023)	3-0 (1-2 ATS)
11/26/2022 \| Ole Miss (-2) vs. Mississippi State	Ole Miss (-10) at Mississippi State	Rebels 17, Bulldogs 7 (11/23/2023)	4-0 (1-2-1 ATS)

Ole Miss has been a very good favorite under Kiffin and has mostly avoided upsets until the 2024 seasons. Three foes beat the Rebels outright as underdogs. LSU won as a three-point dog and Florida won as a 13-point dog. Kiffin’s team will get a rematch spot with both of those teams at home but Kentucky will be just the second road game to occur in a rematch spot.

That gets us to the other side. In just about every season, Kentucky has pulled off an outright upset under Mark Stoops both in SEC play and in the rivalry series against Louisville. The Cats have then had to come back and play that same team the next year in the opposite of a revenge spot. How has UK performed in the other corner? The results have been more up and down.

Upset Win	Revenge Spot	Result	Record
10/4/2014 \| Kentucky (+4) vs. South Carolina: Cats 45-38	Kentucky (+7) at South Carolina	Cats 26, Gamecocks 22 (9/12/2015)	1-0 (1-0 ATS)
9/12/2015 \| Kentucky (+7) at South Carolina: Cats 26-22	Kentucky (-2) vs. South Carolina	Cats 17, Gamecocks 10 (9/24/2016)	2-0 (2-0 ATS)
10/22/2016 \| Kentucky (+4) vs. Mississippi State: Cats 40-38	Kentucky (+12) at Mississippi State	Bulldogs 45, Cats 7 (10/21/2017)	2-1 (2-1 ATS)
10/29/2016 \| Kentucky (+6) at Missouri: Cats 35-21	Kentucky (-9) vs. Missouri	Cats 40, Tigers 34 (10/7/2017)	3-1 (2-2 ATS)
11/26/2016 \| Kentucky (+27) at Louisville: Cats 41-38	Kentucky (+9) vs. Louisville	Cards 44, Cats 17 (11/25/2017)	3-2 (2-3 ATS)
9/16/2017 \| Kentucky (+5) at South Carolina: Cats 23-13	Kentucky (PK) vs. South Carolina	Cats 24, Gamecocks 10 (9/29/2018)	4-2 (3-3 ATS)
11/11/2017 \| Kentucky (+2) at Vanderbilt: Cats 44-21	Kentucky (-11) vs. Vanderbilt	Cats 14, Commodores 7 (10/20/2018)	5-2 (3-4 ATS)
9/8/2018 \| Kentucky (+13) at Florida: Cats 27-16	Kentucky (+8) vs. Florida	Gators 29, Cats 21 (9/14/2019)	5-3 (3-4-1 ATS)
9/22/2018 \| Kentucky (+9) vs. Mississippi State: Cats 28-7	Kentucky (+6) at Mississippi State	Bulldogs 28, Cats 13 (9/21/2019)	5-4 (3-5-1 ATS)
10/26/2019 \| Kentucky (+10) vs. Missouri: Cats 29-7	Kentucky (-3) at Missouri	Tigers 20, Cats 10 (10/24/2020)	5-5 (3-6-1 ATS)
10/17/2020 \| Kentucky (+6) at Tennessee: Cats 34-7	Kentucky (PK) vs. Tennessee	Vols 45, Cats 42 (11/6/2021)	5-6 (3-7-1 ATS)
10/2/2021 \| Kentucky (+7) vs. Florida: Cats 20-13	Kentucky (+6) at Florida	Cats 26, Gators 16 (9/10/2022)	6-6 (4-7-1 ATS)
11/27/2021 \| Kentucky (+3) at Louisville: Cats 52-21	Kentucky (-3) vs. Louisville	Cats 26, Cards 13 (11/26/2022)	7-6 (5-7-1 ATS)
9/10/2022 \| Kentucky (+6) at Florida: Cats 26-16	Kentucky (-1) vs. Florida	Cats 33, Gators 14 (9/30/2023)	8-6 (6-7-1 ATS)
11/25/2023 \| Kentucky (+7) at Louisville: Cats 38-31	Kentucky (+4) vs. Louisville	Cards 41, Cats 14 (11/30/2024)	8-7 (6-8-1 ATS)

In a revenge spot after pulling an upset, UK has a winning record but has covered just six times in 15 games. Saturday against Ole Miss will be the first time that UK was a double-digit dog in consecutive matchups after pulling an upset. The Rebels are currently a 10-point favorite. However, there have been multiple blowout losses with two coming to Louisville at Kroger Field the year after a big upset.