The Path for Kentucky Football to the 12-Team CFB Playoff

by:Nick Roush•05/25/23•

RoushKSR

This is the ninth and final college football season that a four-team playoff will determine the sport’s national champion. In 2024 the CFB Playoff expands to 12 teams. It’s not ludicrous to dream of a world where the Kentucky football team is playing in the new 12-team CFB Playoff.

The Wildcats have knocked on the door, albeit a gentle knock. Kentucky has appeared in the CFB Playoff rankings ten times, peaking at No. 9. Throw the logo bias aside, and there’s a plausible scenario that puts the Wildcats among the sport’s top teams.

Mark Stoops Consistently Spikes

Thursday afternoon Josh Pate from CBS Sports’ “Late Kick” joined 11 Personnel to share an outsider’s perspective on the program Mark Stoops has built in Lexington.

“If I were watching a heart monitor on them, they consistently sit at a certain amount of beats per minute that would put them in the upper-middle part of the SEC. But then they have that spike every two or three years where they can knock on the door,” Pate told KSR.

“They’re probably not going to end up in Atlanta or anything like that, but they can be in the mix in November, which most people don’t expect. They can pull a big upset, they can take a Georgia or an LSU to the wire, any given year.”

Kentucky had two 10-win seasons in four years, 2018 and 2021. Last year Tennessee crossed that threshold for the first time since 2007. There’s demonstrated proof Mark Stoops can exceed expectations, but the math behind those 10-win campaigns is about to get a lot more complicated.

“The key is you’ve got two big dogs about to come into the conference…,” said Pate. “You gotta be careful not to cut off your nose to spite your face. There are going to be 16 rungs on the SEC ladder and the chances are Oklahoma and Texas are gonna be a lot closer to the top than they are the bottom, which means the mathematics of the situation — a bunch of y’all are gonna be bumped down a couple rungs. The net result is there’s more money in the conference, but the net result is you’ve got a couple more losable games on your schedule.”

Kentucky Needs a Little Lightning in a Bottle

During those 10-win seasons, Tennessee was the team that stood in the Wildcats’ way of making that spike an appearance in the Sugar Bowl. Kentucky laid an egg in Neyland in 2018 and a pick six was the difference in a 2021 shootout at Kroger Field. Has Kentucky plateaued, or can the Wildcats get over the hump and crack the field for a 12-team CFB Playoff?

“The answer is yes,” said Pate. “We’re going to get a lot of folks to scoff at that, but it’s only because people are going to classify that ‘yes’ in the present terms. I’m not saying ‘yes’ under the present 4-team terms. You’re talking about the future. You’re talking about 12 teams.”

Pate laid out the formula and it’s not unobtainable. It just requires a combination of talent and a little bit of luck, both with the schedule and the way the pigskin bounces on the gridiron.

“Picture this for a second. Let’s say Kentucky goes into any given year and they just get a favorable schedule draw and they pair that up with striking gold at quarterback in the portal. I’m not saying it has to happen that way, but this is just the lightning in a bottle scenario.

“Workable schedule, biggest games at home, quarterback in the portal, you end up being like plus-nine turnovers in a given year. You are 4-1 or maybe 5-2 in one-possession games and you don’t go to the SEC Championship Game. But because the league is so deep, the two teams that went to the SEC Championship Game are both in the Playoff, and therefore downstream everybody looks better a a result of it.

“If we’re arguing 10-2 Kentucky against 10-2 Oregon State or 10-2 TCU, absolutely the SEC team is going to get the nod. That’s not going to be sustainable, but we’re asking any given year. We’re asking about that spike year. Yes, I don’t think that’s out of the realm of possibility that it could happen one day down the road.”

Dream big, Big Blue Nation, and remember this day when the Wildcats are selected to appear in the new 12-team CFB Playoff.