Player of the Year rankings, betting odds all point to Oscar Tshiebwe
As a competitive college basketball season comes to a close, award races are coming down to the wire as well. The most important is the Player of the Year award and the field of candidates is phenomenal. With multiple candidates across the country, odds and rankings are continuing to shift as we head into March.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
On the Outside Looking In
- Paolo Banchero – Duke: 7th in KenPom, T-11th in odds (+8000)
- Johnny Juzang – UCLA: 13th in odds (+10000)
- Trayce Jackson-Davis – Indiana: 10th in odds (+6000)
- Collin Gillespie – Villanova: T-11th in odds (+8000)
While all talented, these player’s shots at Player of the Year have taken a hit throughout the season for various reasons. Banchero is on the best team and has had the best individual season of the group, but the ACC has proven to be arguably the weakest of the Power-Five conferences. Similarly, Jackson-Davis is having another stellar statistical season for the Hoosiers except Indiana has fallen to ninth in the Big-10. Meanwhile, Juzang and the Bruins have fallen out of the Top-10 by struggling as of late in the Pac-12. Gillespie is on the highest-rated team with #8 Villanova, but the fifth-year senior is putting up similar numbers as he has the past two seasons.
Benedict Mathurin – Arizona
After making the PAC-12 All-Freshman team, Mathurin has become a Pac-12 Player of the Year candidate with his improvement. His numbers have jumped up to 17.1 points and 5.7 rebounds a game. Under first-year coach Tommy Lloyd, the Wildcats have been a Top-10 team all season long with one of the best offenses in the country. Still, he’s a long shot to win the award as he isn’t in KenPom’s rankings and is only seventh in odds (+3500).
Jaden Ivey – Purdue
Ivey and Mathurin have followed a similar path. He was named to the Big-10 All-Freshman team last season, but the sophomore point guard is now a Big-10 Player of the Year candidate. He has also become an absolute highlight machine with comparisons to Ja Morant more than warranted. Even with all the big-time finishes at the rim and clutch moments for the Boilermakers, Ivey isn’t in KenPom’s rankings but does sit at sixth in odds (+3000).
Jabari Smith – Auburn
The Tigers freshman hasn’t just entered the conversation as the #1 pick in the NBA Draft, but he’s become a Player of the Year candidate as well. Smith is a matchup nightmare as a 6-10 mobile forward that can score it from anywhere, including a 41.9% 3-point stroke. His 16.6 points and 6.8 rebounds a game make him a near shoo-in for SEC Freshman of the Year. He hasn’t cracked the KenPom rankings, though, although he’s currently fifth in odds (+2800).
Ochai Agbaji – Kansas
The Big-12 continues to run through Lawrence, but Agbaji has made the Jayhawks one of the most formidable teams in the country. While the roster around him isn’t up to par with a normal Bill Self team, Agbaji is one of the most capable go-to scorers in the country. The senior guard is averaging a career-high 20.4 points on career percentages at 50.1% from the field and 43.3% from the three. He isn’t included in KenPom’s rankings, but he is tied for 3rd in odds (+1200) as the Jayhawks look to win yet another conference title.
Kofi Cockburn – Illinois
A Kentucky transfer target last summer, Cockburn elected to return to Champaign and has remained an incredibly dominant force in college basketball. At seven feet tall and 285 pounds, he has somehow managed to improve on an All-American sophomore season. As a junior, he’s averaging a career-high 21.2 points and 10.8 rebounds on 59.5% shooting from the field. The Illini center is a force in the paint that checks in at 10th in KenPom but is tied for 3rd in odds at +1200.
Drew Timme – Gonzaga
Timme is one of two Bulldogs to make the list for Player of the Year candidates. While he’s averaging worse numbers this season than a year ago, Gonzaga has remained just as consistent as a team. With that said, 17.6 points and 6.4 rebounds are still incredible numbers for one of the college game’s premier low-post scorers. Even with his frontcourt partner garnering consideration as well, Timme ranks 3rd in KenPom but is only tied for the eighth-best odds at +5000.
EJ Liddell – Ohio State
Of all the players up for the award, Liddell has seemingly flown under the radar the most. A lot of that has to do with the Buckeyes’ early struggles, but they’ve picked it back up with a return to the Top-25 and a jump towards the top of the Big Ten standings. Liddell has improved his numbers from an All-Big Ten sophomore season with career highs in points (19.6), rebounds (7.5), and percentages (50.8% from the field, 39.6% from three). KenPom’s rankings have recognized his play as he sits second in their rankings. He’s lower in the odds, though, as he’s tied for eighth at +5000.
Johnny Davis – Wisconsin
If Davis isn’t Player of the Year, he’s certainly in the running for Most Improved. Davis didn’t start a single game for the Badgers last season and scored just seven points a game. In his sophomore season, he’s become a national commodity and an NBA Draft prospect. He has doubled all his major statistics with 20.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists. He also has kept similar percentages although he’s tripled his field goal attempts in his bigger role. Davis’ name has been in the conversation all season and he’s some media member’s leading candidate. At +750, he’s tied for second in odds. KenPom isn’t as high on him, though, as he’s only eighth in their ranking.
Chet Holmgren – Gonzaga
Holmgren is college basketball’s very own unicorn. The seven-foot freshman can do it all even with his slender frame at 195 pounds. He’s only averaging 14.4 points and 9.7 boards, but his entire package is what makes him unique. He blocks 3.5 shots a game while also shooting 61.6% from the field and 43.8% from three. His slighter frame hasn’t affected his ability to make an impact at all as he’s shown he can do it all at the college level. He and Timme are sharing the shine, but Holmgren is in the lead between the Bulldog pair as he’s fourth in odds at +2000 as well as KenPom.
Keegan Murray – Iowa
If Davis isn’t Most Improved, Murray is a worthy candidate as well. His numbers warrant a bigger award though with Player of the Year. Murray has tripled his scoring from 7.2 as a freshman to 23.2 as a sophomore. Pair that with 8.2 rebounds and 56.1% shooting from the field and we have yet another worthy candidate out of the Big Ten. The only thing holding Murray back is the Hawkeyes’ record as conference play has done a number on their overall record. Beyond that, the statistics and advanced numbers are in his favor. He’s tied with Davis in odds for second at +750, but KenPom has him fifth in their rankings.
Oscar Tshiebwe – Kentucky
Tshiebwe has separated himself from the pack as the season has gone on. The 6-9 junior is putting up historic rebounding numbers when it comes to Kentucky, as well as the country. He leads the NCAA in total rebounds, rebounds per game, offensive & defensive rebound percentage, and is second in double-doubles. That doesn’t even include his improved offensive game with a career-high in points (16.9) and field goal percentage (59.7%) or his improved defensive game with more than 1.5 steals and blocks a game.
Tshiebwe has the perfect pairing of numbers, impact, team success and storyline to be a Player of the Year winner. It shows in the rankings and odds as well. He’s first in KenPom’s rankings and the runaway, odds-on-favorite at -200. With the season winding down, ‘Big O’ is in the driver’s seat to be 2022’s National Player of the Year.
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