POINT SPREAD: Opening Line for Kentucky vs. Indiana

For the first time in 14 years, Kentucky and Indiana will battle on the hardwood in the regular season. The stakes couldn’t be higher for Mark Pope‘s squad, which is 0-4 against high-major programs. They desperately need a victory against an Indiana team that can put up some points.

Despite the Wildcats’ struggles against top competition, oddsmakers in the desert still give an advantage to the home team. Kentucky is a 5.5-point favorite at Rupp Arena, with a total of 152.5. That’s a projected final score 79-73.5.

This is a matchup between teams ranked No. 20 and No. 21 in KenPom. The computer rankings predict a final score of 78-74 in favor of Kentucky. Bart Torvik also gives the nod to Kentucky, forecasting a three-point win for the Wildcats.

It’s Indiana’s first season under head coach Darian DeVries, who spent six seasons at Drake, then parlayed one year at West Virginia into a spot in Bloomington. The Hoosiers lost consecutive games to Minnesota and Louisville, then bounced back with a blowout win over Penn State earlier this week behind a 44-point performance from Lamar Wilkerson. The former Kentucky transfer portal target netted 10-15 three-pointers in only 24 minutes of action.

The Hoosiers are 6-4 Against the Spread (ATS) this season, with a 3-2 record against high-major competition. The over has hit in three of the last four games. Kentucky is 4-6 ATS and has not covered in three consecutive games. The Cats were the favorite in three of their four games against high-major foes, losing every single one outright.

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Kentucky and Indiana share a common opponent. Louisville had a 20-point lead over Kentucky in the second half before the Cats went on a late run to make it a 4-point game, ultimately falling 96-88. Last week, the Hoosiers fell into a 16-0 hole against the Cards in Indy, but made Louisville sweat it down the stretch in an 87-78 loss.

It has been a tumultuous second season for Mark Pope in Lexington. Kentucky has failed every early test and hasn’t been particularly close. To describe Saturday’s game at Rupp Arena as “vital” would be an understatement.