Quick Hit Thoughts on the Entire Kentucky Derby Field

2015 Kentucky Derby (Photo: America’s Best Racing)

The post position draw for the 144th Kentucky Derby took place earlier today at Churchill Downs.  In a 20 horse field, the race can absolutely be lost at the draw.  Here is a quick run down of every horse in the main body of the field in post position order:

(1) – Firenze Fire – If he finished in the top half of the field, especially from here, it would be shocking.

(2) – Free Drop Billy – Top notch 2yo has not shown the necessary progression as a 3yo to compete with the elite of this division.

(3) – Promises Fulfilled – Dale Romans took the worst of it at the draw, with both contenders trapped in slots 2 and 3.  This one can be a fun “side bet” horse.  He will be in front, but for how long?

(4) – Flameaway – Will also be prominent from the outset.  Difficult to see him hanging around all the way to the end, but he loves a good fight and can definitely figure into the exotics.

(5) – Audible – Given the favorable post draw and trainer Todd Pletcher’s preferred 5 weeks between starts, the Holy Bull and Florida Derby winning son of Into Mischief rates as the top contender for team TAP.

(6) – Good Magic – Juvenile champion’s two wins came against a 12 horse field in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and a 14 horse field in the Bluegrass Stakes.  He is training like he’ll run the race of his life.  Look out.

(7) – Justify – Most talent, least experience.

(8) – Lone Sailor – Late runner can pick up the pieces down the lane and potentially jump into the exotics.  Will no doubt be favored amongst several ex-UK Wildcats currently attempting a major upset of their own.

(9) – Hofburg – Has the necessary stamina in spades.  Bill Mott would not be running this horse if he didn’t feel he had a legitimate shot of sharing the spoils.

(10) – My Boy Jack – The Lexington Stakes winner will be passing horses late.

(11) – Bolt D’Oro – Dual Grade 1 winning 2yo has yet to cross the wire first at 3.  Should be ready to fire his best shot 3rd time back since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and may be the forgotten horse in the wagering.

(12) – Enticed – Winner of the Grade 2 Jockey Club at Churchill last fall needs to improve to hit the board.

(13) – Bravazo – You can’t spell Derby without D. – Wayne Lukas.

(14) – Mendelssohn – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and UAE Derby winner represents the best chance legendary European trainer Aidan O’Brien has ever had to capture the roses.

(15) – Instilled Regard – Won’t threaten your superfecta ticket.

(16) – Magnum Moon – Rebel and Arkansas Derby winner has a perfect record in 4 starts.  Trainer Todd Pletcher’s record bringing horses back on just 3 weeks rest is . . . less than perfect.

(17) – Solomini – Son of Curlin is a grinder that has never finished worse than 3rd in 6 lifetime starts.  He can definitely find his way on the board at a big price again Saturday.

(18) – Vino Rosso – Closing winner of the Wood Memorial will drop near the rear of the field to save some ground from this post position.

(19) – Noble Indy – Louisiana Derby winner may not possess the speed and talent necessary to win from this far outside.

(20) – Combatant – This horse has had a multitude of excuses for why he can’t seem to find the winners’ circle.  Connections need to go no farther than the post draw for this one.