Scouting Report: Arkansas Razorbacks

BRamseyKSR

We have made it to March.

The best time of year as a college basketball fan is here and the #16 Kentucky Wildcats (20-8, 10-5) are trending in the right direction. Winning four of their last five games, including three in Quad 1 and two on the road, has changed the narrative a bit for this group. A double-bye in the Southeastern Conference Tournament is back on the table. The ‘Cats are now on the #4-seed line in most bracket projections with hopes of moving up to a #3-seed.

Admittedly, these still aren’t the types of discussions that Big Blue Nation wants to have. Kentucky fans would prefer to compete for SEC championships and a #1-seed. However, the conference isn’t the same as it used to be and parity across the country is at an all-time high.

As for the Arkansas Razorbacks (14-14, 5-10), it has been a completely lost season for Coach Eric Musselman. After reaching the Elite Eight in 2021 and 2022, then going to the Sweet 16 in 2023, there weren’t many coaches with a higher approval rating. He will get the benefit of the doubt in Fayetteville this season, but the success has certainly come crashing down. The disappointment came to a head on Tuesday night as the Razorbacks, following back-to-back wins, lost at home to Vanderbilt. Coach Musselman has never won fewer than 20 games as a head coach at the college level, but this season he is in jeopardy of not even getting to .500. It’ll be all about simply taking care of business at Rupp Arena on Saturday afternoon for the ‘Cats.

As always, we have prepared a full, in-depth scouting report for Kentucky’s next opponent. We will take a deep dive into the Razorbacks’ personnel, break down their offensive and defensive schemes, and highlight the keys to the game for the ‘Cats. Let’s dive in and get to know more about the Arkansas Razorbacks.

Arkansas Razorbacks Personnel

Starters

3 El Ellis: 6’3″ 180 lbs, Graduate Student Guard

6.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.7 apg

Talented guard. Primary ball handler. Dynamic playmaker, but very inefficient. We want to stay between him and the basket at all times and be ready to contest when he shoots. Be close enough to contest the obvious catch-and-shoot 3s, but more worried about him as a right-hand driver. Don’t let him dribble into an uncontested 3. Better and more aggressive as a right-hand driver. NO RIGHT-HAND DRIVES!!! He likes to use the left-to-right crossover on the perimeter. You can go UNDER the ballscreens and handoffs. Always should be giving him a step or two so you can stay between him and the basket. Give a hard contest to all of the pull-up jump shots. Make him score over you. Get the ball stopped in transition. No right-hand drives. No layups. More shots than points for him.

#4 Davonte Davis: 6’4″ 185 lbs, Senior Guard

5.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.2 apg

Left-handed. He is a low-percentage shooter. 14-57 (24.6%) from 3 this season. We don’t want to give him wide-open catch-and-shoot 3s, but we are much more worried about him as a left-hand driver. He is much better and more aggressive as a left-hand driver. NO LEFT-HAND DRIVES!!! You can help off of him when he doesn’t have it and then close out short with high hands and choppy feet. Be there to contest the obvious catch-and-shoot 3s and then bounce back to guard against the left-hand drive. You are closing out short and under control to stay between him and the basket. He will look to get all the way to the basket when he is driving it left, but he is more so driving to pass when is going right. Don’t over-help when he drives it right. No left-hand drives. No layups for him.

#0 Khalif Battle: 6’5″ 185 lbs, Graduate Student Guard

12.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.2 apg

Backup guard. SHOOTER!!! NO 3s!!! Half of his shots have been 3s. Shooting nearly the same percentage from 3 as he is from 2. You need to be tight to him at all times to take him away from 3. Tighten up to him as the ball is driven towards you. Absolutely no help off of him. Get OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE him off of downscreens and get OVER the flares. Be very willing to switch anytime there is too much space. When you switch you have to switch out aggressively to take him away from 3. He almost exclusively is hunting jump shots. Be ready to contest the mid-range pull-ups. We want to make him finish 2s. Get out and pressure him on the perimeter and make him drive it. Don’t bail him out by fouling. Much better free throw shooter than finisher. NO 3s!!!

#12 Tramon Mark: 6’6″ 185 lbs, Junior Guard

16.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.7 apg

Left-handed. Most talented player. Very good offensively. Good size and can create for himself. Shooter! No catch-and-shoot 3s! Shooting 38% from 3. Not a high-volume shooter, but makes more than one per game at a high percentage. Get OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE off of downscreens and get OVER the flares. You need to be tighter to him on the perimeter than you are to the other guys. Tighten up to him as the ball is driven towards you. Very good left-hand driver. No left-hand drives! He is looking to shoot the pull-up going right but will get all the way to the rim going left. Contest the pull-up jump shots. Be ready to be physical at the end of his drives. He will shot fake and pivot around to come back left. Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. No catch-and-shoot 3s!

#8 Chandler Lawson: 6’8″ 210 lbs, Graduate Student Forward

3.9 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 0.6 apg

Strong, physical 4-man that plays as a small-ball 5. Not super aggressive offensively. Mostly looking to score around the basket. Will ballscreen and roll some within their offense. Just stay between him and the basket on the roll and make him score over you if they throw it to him. Not really a shooting threat. He is not hunting 3s. Much more dangerous as a slasher and right-hand driver. No right-hand drives!!! Closeout short to him on the perimeter and stay between him and the basket. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. He will use his physicality to turn his drives into a post move some. Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. Active on the offensive glass. Make contact and box him out. Don’t lose him off the ball and let him back-cut you. No right-hand drives!

Bench

#2 Trevon Brazile: 6’10” 220 lbs, Redshirt Sophomore Forward

8.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 0.5 apg

Super athletic, long 4-man. Capable shooter, but at his best as a slasher and right-hand driver. 19-53 from 3. You need to be there to contest the obvious catch-and-shoot 3s. You can help off of him, but close out with high hands and give a hard contest to the catch-and-shoot 3s. Better and more aggressive as a right-hand driver. No right-hand drives! Bounce back and stay between him and the basket on the perimeter. Need to tag him on the short roll and not give him a runway to the rim. They like to throw it to him on the pop or short roll so he can drive it right. You can aggressively come and try to take it off of him when he has the ball. Not thinking about passing. 10 assists, 35 turnovers. Excellent offensive rebounder. Box out. No right-hand drives!

#1 Keyon Menifield Jr.: 6’1″ 150 lbs, Sophomore Guard

7.9 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.6 apg

Dynamic, playmaking point guard. Aggressive offensive player. Capable shooter. Will make some tough ones off of the dribble. You need to get out and break his rhythm when he is bouncing it on the perimeter so he can’t dribble into a pull-up. Go OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. We don’t want to give him open 3s behind the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE him off of downscreens and get OVER the flares. He is not a great finisher when he has to drive it. Right-hand driver. Get your hands up and make him finish with you between him and the basket. Do not over-help when he is driving it, especially if he is driving it left. We would rather make him finish 2’s than give up an assist to an open teammate. No uncontested 3s. More shots than points for him.

#11 Jalen Graham: 6’10” 220 lbs, Fifth Year Senior Forward

7.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 0.7 apg

Backup 4/5 man. Long, bouncy, and athletic. He is exclusively looking to score around the basket. Will ballscreen and roll to the rim. They will throw it up to him some on the roll. He is an above-the-rim player. Just give ground and stay lower than him on the roll. Not as good of a finisher with you between him and the basket. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. Do your work early and get him off of the block. His percentages will go down the further off of the block you make him catch it. Don’t help up off of him at the rim and give up a dunk. Stay between him and the basket. Very good offensive rebound. Find him and make contact when the shot goes up. Box out! No dunks for him.

#15 Makhi Mitchell: 6’10” 240 lbs, 5th Year Senior Center

7.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.0 apg

Physical backup 5-man. Looking to score around the basket. Will ballscreen and roll to the basket. Capable of catching it on the roll and scoring. You need to give ground and stay lower than him to take away the layups and dunks on the roll. Don’t help up off of him at the rim and give up a dunk. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Be physical and get him off of the block. His percentages will go down the further off of the block you make him catch it. Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. Excellent offensive rebounder. You need to make contact when the shot goes up. Box out! Make him score everything with you between him and the basket. No left shoulder baskets. No layups or dunks for him!

#24 Jeremiah Davenport: 6’6″ 215 lbs, Graduate Student Guard/Forward

4.9 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 0.8 apg

Physical, athletic, backup wing. Very willing shooter. 87 of 124 shots have been 3s. However, he is shooting just 26.4% from 3. You need to be there to contest the obvious catch-and-shoot 3s. Help off of him, but don’t go so far that you can’t close out and give a hard contest to his catch-and-shoot 3s. Once you are there on the initial catch-and-shoot, you need to bounce back and guard against the right-hand drive. No right-hand drives! Be ready for him to physical at the end of his right-hand drives. Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. He has been a better 3-point shooter over the course of his career so we need to respect him from 3. No catch-and-shoot 3s. No straight line, right-hand drives.

#6 Layden Blocker: 6’2″ 175 lbs, Freshman Guard

3.7 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.0 apg

Long, athletic backup guard. He is a non-shooter. 2-17 from 3 this season. You do not need to guard him all the way out on the perimeter. Much better and more aggressive as a right-hand driver. No right-hand drives!!! Help off of him when he doesn’t have it and then close out short to stay between him and the basket. Go UNDER the ballscreens and handoffs. You should always be giving him a step or two in order to cut off the right-hand drives. Do not over-help when he is driving it. Just make him score contested 2s. Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. He will fly in from the perimeter to offensive rebound. You need to find him and make contact when the shot goes up. No right-hand drives. No layups for him!

Arkansas Razorbacks Offense

When watching the Arkansas Razorbacks on film their offense simply looks disjointed. The metrics would certainly back up the eye test. Per KenPom, the Razorbacks are 121st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 224th in effective field goal percentage at 49.6%. They rely heavily on getting to the foul line, shooting over 26 free throws per game, and derive nearly 25% of their points from there. Having to rely on free throws to power your offense is generally not a recipe for success. Arkansas will look to push the pace a little bit and they are at their best offensively in transition. However, they really struggle with half-court execution. They set a lot of ballscreens and run sets out of a Horns alignment in the half court. Kentucky’s defense should be able to showcase continued improvement on Saturday.

This is where discipline and concentration come into play. You don’t have to be an elite, lockdown defender in order to put yourself in a better position to not get smoked off of the dribble. The Arkansas Razorbacks don’t run a lot of intricate offense. Therefore, it is more about making smart, personnel-specific decisions in the half court. #3 Ellis is a capable shooter, but he is much better and more aggressive off of the bounce. There is no reason to all of the way out at the half court logo guarding him. Also, while we don’t want to help too much off of #12 Mark, if you do end up helping you need to actually do something. Here, the Missouri defender wasn’t taking away Mark but also didn’t stop Ellis’ drive.

Coach Musselman will dial up this cross screen set to isolate #12 Mark off of the block. The 6’6″ guard operates well inside and can attack a mismatch. However, the Razorbacks aren’t able to get him the ball on this possession. Instead, they throw a skip pass to #0 Battle who is able to attack towards to the baseline to his right hand. Battle is absolutely their most dangerous shooter, but this is still a bad closeout. You have to square him up more as opposed to opening the gate for him to drive it in a straight line to his strong hand. Whoever is in at the 5 for us guarding #8 Lawson needs to be planted at the rim ready to give this a better contest as well.

As a team, the Arkansas Razorbacks shoot just 32% from three-point range. Especially being at Rupp Arena, we want to error on the side of packing it in and making them shoot jump shots. That means you need to be in to the midline on the weak side, especially off of guys like #4 Davis, and help take away #15 Mitchell on the roll. They shouldn’t be able to spread you out enough to get this easy of a look at the rim this early in a possession.

First of all, you need to back up when guarding #3 Ellis. Like we said before, there is no reason to be guarding him this far out on the perimeter. He wants to drive it! We want to go UNDER the ballscreens which is another reason to back up and play lower when he is that far out on the perimeter. When you help off of the ball you need to help more aggressively and make them give it up. If you are just reaching at them as they still drive it all of the way to the rim for an And-1 you might as well just stay home and take away the potential kick-out 3.

You don’t have to be perfect defensively when you play with effort and urgency. It would be better if we went underneath the ballscreens set for #3 Ellis, and you shouldn’t stare at the ball when #8 Lawson is handling it, but we were able to cover up the small mistakes with urgency. At the end of the day it is all about staying between them and the basket. If you do that, it will be really hard for them to score enough to win the game.

#11 Graham will be back in the lineup for the Arkansas Razorbacks on Saturday afternoon. He is one of their highest-usage players and you can expect to see a set play or two like this that Coach Musselman will use to get him the ball in the post. Anytime he comes out this high to get a catch it should trigger in your mind that a backscreen is coming. When Thiero and Onyenso are involved together it is ALWAYS okay to switch it as they did here. This is an excellent job by Thiero utilizing his physicality to hold his ground against a bigger post player. Then, he displays his elite athleticism by getting up to block the shot. Again, it is all about staying between them and the basket.

Arkansas Razorbacks Defense

Over the last three seasons, the Arkansas Razorbacks have finished 10th, 11th, and 17th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. Even in Coach Musselman’s first season in Fayetteville, they were 57th. Now, they’ve faced a serious regression to 135th. They are one of the worst in the country at forcing turnovers and they are really struggling on the glass. Arkansas does still protect the rim and will block as many shots as any team in college basketball, but that is about their only strong suit defensively. In terms of scheme, the Razorbacks are primarily a man-to-man team but will mix in some full-court pressure and even a zone look from time to time. In their typical man-to-man they try to keep the ball on a side which should also use some runways to attack the rim. Be aggressive and go score 90 on these guys.

Keys to the Game

Force contested jump shots. They aren’t good enough offensively to win unless they lay it up at the rim and shoot uncontested 3s. We need to keep a guy on a guy, stay between them and the basket, and contest everything. Hold them under their averages. Under 48% effective goal percentage.
Control the glass. The Arkansas Razorbacks are not a good rebounding team. We need to take advantage of that at both ends. 30%+ on the offensive glass. 75%+ on the defensive glass.
Dictate the pace. It wasn’t necessarily a slow pace when we played in Fayetteville, but we still prefer to play above 70 possessions. Don’t let this game be decided in the 60s like our first meeting. “Just keep scoring” and “go score 90” should be the mindset in this matchup. They can’t score enough to keep up.
Shoot 75% or better from the free throw line.