Scouting Report: Mississippi State Bulldogs

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For the second time in as many months the Kentucky Wildcats find their backs squarely against the wall. In January, the ‘Cats lost by 26 points at Alabama and then returned to Rupp Arena where they lost to South Carolina. Those back-to-back results dropped the Wildcats to 10-6 overall and 1-3 in the Southeastern Conference with the season seemingly slipping away. However, a road win at Tennessee sparked a six-game SEC winning streak that vaulted Kentucky back to the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. Now, after back-to-back losses to Arkansas and Georgia the season once again feels on the brink of a tailspin. Wednesday’s trip to Starkville to face the Mississippi State Bulldogs will offer a new opportunity to right the ship.

It has been a season of runs for the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Coach Chris Jans took over in Starkville after five incredibly successful seasons at New Mexico State that included three NCAA Tournament appearances. He hit the ground running with the Bulldogs by beginning the season 11-0 to earn a Top 25 national ranking. However, things quickly took a downward turn as Mississippi State lost eight of their next nine games which included a 1-7 start to Southeastern Conference play. Coach Jans and company have turned it around though since that losing skid rattling off five straight victories including wins over TCU and at Arkansas. This is a team playing very good basketball right now.

As always, we’ve been hard at work in the KSR Film Room putting together another scouting report for your pregame consumption. Here you will find a full personnel deep-dive, breakdowns of their offensive and defensive schemes, and the keys to the game. Let’s dive on in and learn more about the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Personnel

Starters

#3 Shakeel Moore: 6’1″ 190 lbs, Junior Guard

9.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.3 apg

Lefty. Aggressive offensive player. Willing shooter. 28.7% from 3 on nearly four attempts per game. More worried about him penetrating than shooting the 3. You can hop underneath the ballscreens and handoffs. He is much better as a mid-range jump shooter than shooting behind the ballscreen from 3. Go under to stay between him and the basket and cut off his left hand drives. No left hand drives!!! Hunting mid-range jump shots. Get your hands up and make him finish over you as he attacks the basket. You can bring some help if he is driving it left, but do not over help when he is going right. Just make him finish. He is going to try and come back left to finish. Stay down on shot fakes both on the perimeter and at the end of his drives. Contest all jumpers. No left hand drives.

#10 Dashawn Davis: 6’2″ 195 lbs, Senior Guard

8.3 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 3.5 apg

Quick, athletic guard. He is their best 3-point shooter. No catch-and-shoot 3’s! Shooting a better percentage from 3 than 2. 32-80 from 3. Need to be tight enough to take away the catch-and-shoot 3’s. Tighten up as the ball comes towards you. Will attack your closeout to drive it right, but he is a low percentage finisher. Once you take away the initial catch-and-shoot you should bounce back and guard against the right hand drive. Get over the ballscreens and handoffs. Chase off of downscreens and get over the flares. Make him finish when he drives it. Just 37.1% from 2 on the season. He is driving to pass the deeper he takes it. Do not over help! Very good passer and would rather pass than try to finish. Get your hands up and make him finish over you. Next most dangerous in transition. No catch-and-shoot 3’s.

#0 D.J. Jeffries: 6’7″ 215 lbs, Senior Forward

9.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.8 apg

Big, physical wing. Willing shooter. 27.8% from 3 on over four attempts per game. More worried about him penetrating than shooting the 3. They will ballscreen for him some out on the perimeter. You can hop underneath (or switch) the ballscreens and handoffs. He is much better as a mid-range jump shooter than shooting behind the ballscreen from 3. Go under (or switch) to stay between him and the basket and cut off his right hand drives. No right hand drives! No reason to be all the way out there taking him away from 3. Just get a hand up to contest when he shoots. Uses the left-to-right crossover to get to his mid-range pull-up jumper. Give a hard contest to the pull-ups. Physical at the end of his drives. Stay down on the fakes. Right hand, left shoulder. Make him score over you. No right hand drives.

#4 Cameron Matthews: 6’7″ 225 lbs, Junior Forward

6.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.0 apg

Big, physical wing. He is a non-shooter! 4-29 from 3. No reason to guard him out on the perimeter. Closeout short, back up, and guard against the right hand drive. No right hand drives!!! You are closing out short to stay between him and the basket. Very physical at the end of his drives. He is going to shot fake and pivot around to finish with his right hand. Wall up, be physical, and make him score over you. Right hand, left shoulder around the basket. If we are giving up size to him around the basket, or as he is driving it right, you can come help some. Stunt and dig at him. The goal is to cut him off and keep him out of the paint. Excellent offensive rebounder! Averaging two offensive rebounds per game. Box out! Help off of him. Closeout short. No right hand drives.

#1 Tolu Smith: 6’11” 245 lbs, Redshirt Senior Forward

14.6 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.8 apg

Physical 5-man. Exclusively looking to score at the rim. He is very good on the roll. Need to give ground on the roll to stay lower than him and recover as quickly as possible. There should be plenty of guys to help off of on the perimeter as well to take him away on the roll. Have to take him away on the roll. Looking to duck you in around the basket for a deep post catch. Be physical and do your work early to get him off the block. His percentages will go down the further off the block you make him catch it. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Uses the shot fake to step through and finish with his right. Stay down on the fakes. Elite offensive rebounder. Averages 3.6 offensive rebounds per game. Must be physical when the shot goes up and box him out.

Bench

#14 Tyler Stevenson: 6’8″ 220 lbs, Graduate Student Forward

4.6 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 0.4 apg

Backup 4-man. Non-shooter. 0-1 from 3. Looking to score around the basket. Will ballscreen and roll some. Primarily looking to post up and score either via facing up or with his back to the basket. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Be physical and get him off of the block. His percentages will go down the further off of the block you make him catch it. Wall up and stay down on the shot fakes. Be physical on his left shoulder. Make him score over you. No quick drop steps. He will shoot the little turnaround jumper some in the post. Get your hand up to contest. Help off of him on the perimeter. Closeout short. No right hand drives. Box out! No left shoulder baskets for him.

#11 Eric Reed Jr.: 6’2″ 200 lbs, Graduate Student Guard

4.2 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.0 apg

Backup guard. Very willing shooter. 81 of 121 shots have been 3’s. Just 24.7% from 3. Has been high percentage in the past, but just 20-81 this season. Percentages have gotten progressively, and significantly, worse each season. Still need to be there to contest the obvious catch-and-shoot 3’s though because that is what he wants to do. Once you are there to contest the initial catch-and-shoot you can bounce back and guard against the right hand drive. Go under the ballscreens and handoffs. Just make him score over you as he drives it. Very physical on his way to the basket. Get your hands up and make him finish. Excellent offensive rebounder. Crashes in hard from the perimeter. Box out! Contest the obvious catch-and-shoot 3’s.

#13 Will McNair Jr.: 6’11” 265 lbs, Redshirt Senior Forward

3.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 0.4 apg

Back-up 5-man. Big, physical post presence. Will ballscreen and roll to the rim. They aren’t as aggressive throwing it to him as they are #1 Smith, but he still gets it some. Need to give ground on the roll to stay lower than him and recover as quickly as possible. There should be plenty of guys to help off of on the perimeter as well to take him away on the roll. Your goal when guarding the roll man is to be active enough with your stunts and fakes to bait the ball handler into taking a 6-8 foot floater/jump shot. We don’t want to give up layups or dunks on the roll. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Be physical and get him off of the block. Wall up and make him score over you. Good offensive rebounder. Box out!

#0 Shawn Jones Jr.: 6’5″ 200 lbs, Freshman Guard

2.5 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 0.6 apg

Athletic backup guard. Very willing shooter. 30 of 40 shots have been 3’s. 26.7% from 3. He is looking to shoot catch-and-shoot 3’s. Need to be tight enough to contest the obvious catch-and-shoot 3’s. Once you take away the initial catch-and-shoot you need to bounce back and guard against the right hand drives. Go under the ballscreens and handoffs. You can help off of him and help clog up the paint, but closeout a little more aggressively to contest the catch-and-shoot 3’s.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Offense

Quite simply, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are one of the worst shooting teams in all of college basketball. You should constantly be thinking about packing it in, backing up, and protecting the paint. As a general rule, the more 3-pointers you can get them to take the better. Their 28.5% clip is 355th out of 363 Division I teams. The Bulldogs are equally bad from the free throw line converting just 62.4% which is 357th nationally. Mississippi State averages just 65.6 points per game which is ahead of only South Carolina in the SEC. Again, this is not a good offensive team. However, they offensive rebound at high level led by #1 Smith who pulls down 3.6 offensive rebounds per game by himself. Keeping them off of the glass will make it hard for the ‘Dawgs to score enough to win.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs aren’t as reliant on ballscreen action as some of our opponents, but it is still something they do quite a bit. They will even ballscreen for their forwards #0 Jeffries and #4 Matthews who are both solid ball handlers and drivers. There is no reason to be out on the perimeter denying #0 Jeffries. He is a 27.8% 3-point shooter and definitely isn’t going to shoot them off of the dribble. However, he is a solid mid-range jump-shooter and can drive it right. Go UNDER the ballscreens and handoffs to stay in front of the ball and so we don’t have to help off of #1 Smith on the roll. If he gets a head of steam he is too big and strong to stop on the roll. There will always be non-shooters on the weak side too so be willing to X-Out.

In terms of the two defenders directly involved in the ballscreen this isn’t too bad here. #10 Davis is the one guy where it is okay to chase him over the top because of his shooting ability. Still, this far out, it would be great if you could hop under. The primary issue here though goes back to the general theme of pack it in, back up, and protect the paint. There needs to be more help from all of the “other guys” when Mississippi State attacks the basket. We are not worried about them moving it ahead to someone else on the perimeter. A kick out is ALWAYS better than a drive in this one. The defender guarding #14 Stevenson should have stayed directly in front of #13 McNair Jr. on the roll. There is NO REASON to follow #14 Stevenson to the perimeter. 0-1 from 3.

Activity level, effort, and toughness will win the game on the defensive end of the floor against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. They aren’t talented enough to beat us, but they can execute well enough and be tough enough to win. We can’t allow that to happen. When guarding the ballscreens, first and foremost, we should go UNDER as many as possible that don’t involve #10 Davis. Switching is always a viable second option as well. However, in drop coverage, our defender guarding the roll man has to have active hands and feet while giving ground towards the rim. We want to stay lower than #1 Smith on the roll while trying to bait the ball handler into taking 6-8 foot floater/jump-shot. You must be ACTIVE with stunts and fakes to do that.

The Bulldogs will dial up some set plays out of a Horns alignment in the half court. This back screen to zoom action can be effective for #10 Davis. After the initial back screen Davis continues to circle through the paint and off of the down screen into zoom action at the top of the key. This is a tough angle to guard and almost forces you to switch it to stay in front of the ball. Get all the way in there to help from the strong side corner! Make him pass it out to #3 Moore on the perimeter (28.7% 3-point shooter).

Mississippi State Bulldogs Defense

The reason the Mississippi State Bulldogs have found some success this season is because of their defense. Per KenPom, Coach Jans leads the fourth best defense in the country allowing just 58.7 points per game. Even as their competition level improved in SEC play the Bulldogs still give up only 63.6 points per game. Using a pack-line, man-to-man style defense they turn teams over, protect the paint, and force opponents into taking 3-point shots. Part of their success has come from opponents converting just 30.6% of their 3-point attempts on over 23 shots per game. We are going to have opportunities to shoot the ball in from the perimeter tonight. Knocking in a few early to get going and making Mississippi State play from behind will flip the script in our favor.

Keys to the Game

Pack it in, back up, and protect the paint. You should constantly error on the side of staying inside the perimeter. Don’t chase their guys around outside. Look for opportunities to help on the drives or on the pick-and-roll. Be in the way as they attack. Closeout short when the ball does get moved ahead. Not worried about them kicking it out for 3. Keep them out of the paint!
Contain #1 Smith around the rim. Stay lower than him on the roll. Bring help to take away the roll. Box him out and keep him off of the offensive glass. Dig the ball out of the post when he catches it. Right hand, left shoulder. Be physical. Hold him below his averages.
Shoot it in from 3. Let it fly in transition. Catch-and-shoot on kick-outs. Shoot it behind when they go under. Mississippi State is going to dare you to shoot 3’s. The opportunities will be there. Need to make 8 or more 3’s.
Shoot 75% or better from the free throw line.