Scouting Report: Mississippi State Bulldogs

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It is always more difficult the second time around. In this instance, that becomes even more true as the #16 Kentucky Wildcats (19-8, 9-5) must travel to Starkville to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (19-8, 8-6). The first time these two teams played, back on January 17th, both were coming off of a loss. Kentucky had just lost a tough one at Texas A&M in overtime while Mississippi State dropped one at home to Alabama. Now, the ‘Cats and ‘Dawgs will enter coming off of wins. In fact, the Bulldogs have strung together five straight Southeastern Conference victories to play their way semi-firmly into the NCAA Tournament field. Tuesday evening’s 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time tip-off on ESPN will be an important Quad 1 opportunity for each program.

Per Bart Torvik, Mississippi State has been the 12th best team in the country since their five game winning streak started back on February 7th. In that time, they’ve posted the 62nd best adjusted offensive efficiency and the 9th best adjusted defensive efficiency. Those defensive numbers are mostly in line with what Coach Chris Jans’ squad has been all season, but the offense has seen a significant improvement. The recent boost has primarily come from beyond the arc where the Bulldogs have shot 36.9% from deep in the last five games compared to 31.4% in the previous 22. Continuing to play through freshman guard Josh Hubbard has helped improve their shooting prowess. He is making over three per game at a 37% clip during Mississippi State’s winning streak.

As always, we have prepared a full, in-depth scouting report for Kentucky’s next opponent. We will take a deep dive into the Bulldogs’ personnel, break down their offensive and defensive schemes, and highlight the keys to the game for the ‘Cats. Let’s dive in and get to know more about the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Personnel

Starters

#13 Josh Hubbard: 5’10” 190 lbs, Freshman Guard

15.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.7 apg

Will be the primary ball handler a lot when he is in there. VERY aggressive. Has taken twice as many shots as everyone else. SHOOTER!!! NO 3’s!!! 214 of 33 shots have been 3’s. Shooting 35.5% from 3. You have to be tight to him at all times to take him away from 3. Tighten up to him as the ball is driven towards you. Absolutely no help off of him. Get OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE him off of downscreens and get over the flares. Be very willing to switch anytime there is too much space. If you switch you must switch OUT to take him away from 3. He will drive it right when you take him away from 3. We want to make him finish 2’s. Do not over help when he drives. Not super efficient inside the arc. Contest all pull-up jump shots. No 3’s!!!

#3 Shakeel Moore: 6’1″ 190 lbs, Senior Guard

8.7 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.0 apg

Left-handed. Secondary playmaker next to #13 Hubbard. Shooter! Shooting just under 40%. You have to take away the catch-and-shoot 3’s. Tighten up to him as the ball is driven towards you. Don’t help too much off of him. Get OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE off of downscreens and get OVER the flares. Once you take away the catch-and-shoot 3’s he will look to drive it left. He is looking to get all the way to the basket when driving it left. More likely to shoot the floater or pull up for a jump shot when going right. Do not over help, especially when he is driving it right. Likes to use the shot fake on the perimeter to drive it left. Stay down on the fakes. We can’t let him be comfortable on the perimeter. No catch-and-shoot 3’s!

#5 Shawn Jones Jr.: 6’5″ 205 lbs, Sophomore Guard

5.0 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.1 apg

Bigger guard. Willing shooter. Half of his shots shots have been 3’s. Shooting just 28.8% from 3. You need to be there to contest the obvious catch-and-shoot 3’s. However, we are more worried about him as a right-hand driver. No right-hand drives! Once you take away the obvious catch-and-shoot you need to bounce back and guard against the right hand drive. Physical, athletic driver. You can hop underneath the ballscreens and handoffs to stay between him and the basket. Likes to use the shot fake around the basket and is always spinning back to finish with his right hand. Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. Will crash the offensive glass from the perimeter. Good offensive rebounder. You need to make contact with him when the shot goes up. No right-hand drives!

#4 Cameron Matthews: 6’7″ 230 lbs, Senior Forward

9.6 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 2.9 apg

Strong, athletic forward. RIGHT HAND DRIVER!!! No right-hand drives!!! He is a non-shooter. Just 2-19 from three. You do not have to guard him on the perimeter. Close out short and be ready for him to drive it at you to his right hand. You should never be beyond the 3-point line when guarding him. When in doubt, back up further. Excellent finisher inside when he is allowed to get to his right hand. Will shot fake, spin, and step through to finish with his right hand inside. Always coming back right! Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. Right hand, left shoulder if he catches it in the post. Elite offensive rebounder. He will crash hard from wherever he is on the floor. You have to find him and make contact. Box out! Absolutely no right-hand drives!

#15 Jimmy Bell Jr.: 6’10” 280 lbs, Graduate Student Center

5.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 0.6 apg

Strong, physical post. They will look to throw it to him just like they do #1 Smith. Very physical inside. He will seal you off as guards drive to the basket. Don’t get sealed. Will duck you in hard. Don’t let yourself get buried. Do your work early and get him pushed off of the block. His percentages will go down the further off of the block you make him catch it. Right hand, left shoulder in the post. Not as efficient as Smith so you don’t need to double as much, but you should still stunt and dig at him. The deeper he catches it the more aggressive you should be. 15 assists, 41 turnovers. Go with the plan of either stealing it or fouling him if you go. Don’t get caught in the middle. Excellent offensive rebounder. Averaging 2.1 offensive rebounds per game. Box out!!!

Bench

#1 Tolu Smith III: 6’11” 245 lbs, Graduate Student Center

16.8 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.3 apg

Very physical inside. Looking to duck you in at all times. Don’t let yourself get buried. Will ballscreen and roll to the basket. They are aggressively looking to throw it inside. Do your work early and get him pushed off of the block. His percentages will go down the further off of the block you make him catch it. Scores it over both shoulders. Very good with his left hand. Play him straight up. No quick drop steps. You need to aggressively dig the ball out of the post when he catches you. The deeper he catches it the quicker you need to go. 19 assists, 41 turnovers. Go with the plan of either stealing it or fouling him. Don’t get caught in the middle. Elite offensive rebounder. You have to be physical and keep him off of the glass. Make him score over you outside of the paint.

#12 KeShawn Murphy: 6’10” 235 lbs, Redshirt Sophomore Forward

6.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 0.8 apg

Backup forward. Athletic and physical. He is a very similar player to #4 Matthews, but bigger and stronger. Did not play in our first game. He is a willing shooter with 20 attempts in 13 games, but has only made 4. Throw a hand up to contest if he shoots. We will adjust if he makes a couple. We are much more worried about him as a right hand driver. NO RIGHT HAND DRIVES!!! Excellent finisher inside when he is allowed to get to his right hand. Always coming back right! Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. Right hand, left shoulder if he catches it in the post. Elite offensive rebounder. He will crash hard from wherever he is on the floor. You have to find him and make contact. Box out! Absolutely no right-hand drives!

#10 Dashawn Davis: 6’2″ 190 lbs, Graduate Student Guard

6.2 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 3.0 apg

Backup Point Guard. Primary ball handler alongside #13 Hubbard when he is in the game. Capable shooter. 23-71 from 3. More aggressive as a right hand driver. No right hand drives! He is looking to get all the way to the basket when driving it right. Very quick. You need to get over and cut off the right-hand drive. Hop underneath the ballscreens and handoffs. He isn’t looking to shoot the ones behind the ballscreen. Be there to contest the obvious catch-and-shoot 3’s, but then bounce back and guard against the right hand drive. Stay between him and the basket and make him finish. He is not a good finisher unless he is all the way at the rim. Do not overhelp when he drives. Just get your hands up and make him finish. No right-hand drives. No layups for him.

#0 D.J. Jeffries: 6’7″ 215 lbs, Graduate Student Forward

6.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.7 apg

Strong, physical wing. Very willing shooter, but much more dangerous as a right-hand driver. No right-hand drives!!! 77 of 139 shots have been 3s, but shooting just 26%. Be there to contest the obvious catch-and-shoot 3’s and then bounce back to guard against the right-hand drives. He is very physical at the end of his drives. Be ready for him to bring it into your chest. Will shot fake, spin, and step through to finish with his right hand inside. Always coming back right! Stay down, wall up, and make him score over you. Right hand, left shoulder if he catches it in the post. Will shoot the little turnaround jumper as well. Give it a hard contest. Anytime he catches it you have to be thinking about him driving it right. Good offensive rebounder. Box out!

#11 Trey Fort: 6’4″ 200 lbs, Junior Guard

5.2 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 0.5 apg

Backup guard. SHOOTER!!! NO 3’s!!! 63 of 89 shots have been 3’s. You have to be tight to him at all times to take him away from 3. Tighten up to him as the ball is driven towards you. Absolutely no help off of him. Get OVER the ballscreens and handoffs. CHASE him off of downscreens and get over the flares. Be very willing to switch anytime there is too much space. If you switch you have to switch OUT to take him away from 3. He will drive it right when you take him away from 3. We want to make him finish 2’s. Pressure him on the perimeter and make him drive it. He is not a very efficient finisher from inside of the arc. Contest all pull-up jump shots. No 3’s for him.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Offense

When you think about the Mississippi State Bulldogs their offense isn’t the first thing that comes to mind. However, it has gotten markedly better of late. The Bulldogs are still shooting just 32.2% from 3 on the year, but that has improved to 36.9% during their current five game winning streak. They are very good around the basket thanks to talented post players like Tolu Smith and Jimmy Bell along with efficient drive-first forwards such as DJ Jeffries and Cameron Matthews. Their aggressiveness inside also lends itself to getting to the foul line frequently. In terms of scheme, Coach Jans sticks with some ballscreen continuity, 4-around-1 Motion, and a lot of set plays to throw the ball in the post. Keeping them off of the glass will be a key as well.

Since the last time we played, #13 Hubbard has become the focal point of the Mississippi State Bulldogs’ offense. It is unlikely that we will see another 1-11, 1-9 performance like he put up at Rupp Arena. Hubbard is coming off of his best game yet scoring 32 points and on 6-12 shooting from deep in their win over LSU. You must guard him with a similar urgency as we had against Alabama on Saturday. Closeouts like you see in this clip will get us beat. Their path to winning on Tuesday night involves him getting hot from 3-point range.

#1 Smith did almost all of his work against us in the second half in Lexington on his way to 26 points. If there isn’t more aggressiveness at the point of the screen, then you have to give ground and stay lower than him on the roll. This is a game, unlike Saturday, where we can be more aggressive tagging on the roll from the perimeter as well.

You have to be aggressive and decisive when doubling the post against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. When you go actually bother #1 Smith good things will happen. He has 19 assists compared to 41 turnovers on the season. However, you have to actually get there and make a play on the ball. When you double the post you should be thinking about only two outcomes, either creating a turnover or fouling. On this possession you see DJ Wagner coming from the low side but never actually get to Smith. He was essentially doing nothing and that led to #10 Davis knocking in a wide open 3. If you aren’t going to ACTUALLY double then you might as well stay home and take away the 3.

One of the biggest keys to our defensive improvement over the last two weeks has been much better off-ball discipline. We have cut down on our obsession with the ball that led to constant converging on the drive. When #4 Matthews is driving it across the lane there is no reason to slide over off of #1 Smith. You can’t be so concerned with blocking shots that you give up your position. Even if Matthews would have shot this and missed, Smith would have likely finished the putback because Ole Miss was out of rebounding position. Do not help up off of him at the rim!

The Mississippi State Bulldogs like to set this step up screen on the wing. They will use it a lot for their bigger, drive-first forwards like #0 Jeffries, #4 Matthews, and #12 Murphy. Here you see Murphy, who is a non-shooter but an athletic right hand driver, get downhill off of the step up ballscreen and finish inside. You have to do a better job of be physical and staying between him and the basket to make him finish. This is where you should provide some rim protection as well and see if he can make a play. Murphy has just 11 assists on the season.

We did a really good job in the first half of limiting #1 Smith in our matchup back in January. Unlike Saturday where we wanted to play the percentages by taking away 3’s at the expense of giving up layups, Tuesday night will be the opposite. We want to be aggressive taking them away on the interior at the expense of potentially giving up a couple of extra 3’s. This is great awareness by Reed Sheppard to no follow #3 Moore and stay to make a play on the ball.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Defense

This is where Coach Jans and the Mississippi State Bulldogs make their money. They will play almost exclusively man-to-man with the ability to switch a lot 1-4 due to having very athletic forwards. Coach Jans has mixed in more zone recently though. Typically it’ll be a full court 2-2-1 back to a 2-3 as you see in the clip below. The Bulldogs played 11 possessions of zone against Arkansas and five against LSU. When they extend that full court token pressure it is mostly just to slow down the offense and run some clock before they can initiate offense.

Mississippi State has produced a borderline Top 10 defense this season, per KenPom, led by the fact that opponents shoot just 28.3% from 3-point range. That mark is fourth in the country. The Bulldogs have been opportunistic as well when it comes to creating live ball turns with an 11.7% steal rate which ranks 32th nationally. Two of our offensive strengths, shooting 3’s and taking care of the ball, directly combat two of their defensive strengths. Which side is able to win the strength versus strength battle will likely win the game in Starkville.

Keys to the Game

Contain #1 Smith and #15 Bell inside. We did a good job of this for a half in Lexington, but then Smith took over in the second half. Force four or more turnovers and hold them below their scoring and offensive rebounding averages. Make them uncomfortable with aggressive and decisive double teams.
REBOUND!!! The Mississippi State Bulldogs get 35.5% of their misses on the season and rebounded 35% of their own against us the first time around. That has to be better on Tuesday night. Limit them to no better than 30% on the offensive glass. They are going to miss shots. If you limit them to one attempt per trip they can’t score enough to win.
No 3’s for #13 Hubbard. Mississippi State’s path to winning involves Hubbard, and to a lesser extent guys like #3 Moore, #10 Davis, and #11 Fort getting hot from 3. Hubbard is going to squeeze them off and you have to guard him like an Alabama guy. Stay tight and take away his attempts. No more than two 3’s for him in this one.
Shoot 75% or better at the free throw line.