Scouting Report: Mississippi State Bulldogs
After consecutive SEC losses to start October, Kentucky has a football team that is reeling at the moment. Mark Stoops’ team has a losing streak that desperately needs to be snapped.
Unfortunately, the Big Blue is drawing one of the hottest teams in college football this weekend.
Mississippi State will make the trip to Lexington this weekend fresh off of double-digit home wins against Texas A&M and Arkansas with a trip to Alabama looming next week. The Bulldogs are riding high thanks to some strong play from their junior quarterback.
KSR’s scouting report is here to give you all the intel on Mike Leach’s third team in Starkville.
Nuts and Bolts
Mississippi State might be the toughest football gig in the SEC outside of Nashville. The Bulldogs have never won more than 10 games in a season and have reached that double-digit win threshold just twice since the end of World War II.
Both Jackie Sherrill (1991-2003) and Dan Mullen (2009-17) had longevity in Starkville leading the school to both of those 10-win seasons. Each proved that a good program can be formed at State with seven combined top 25 finishes. However, this is a place that is hard to win at.
After deciding to fire Joe Moorhead after just two seasons, Mississippi State hired a coach who has won consistently in some hard places.
In a decade at Texas Tech, Mike Leach led the Red Raiders to a bowl game each season and had a national championship contender in 2008. Leach then landed at Washington State where he would spend eight seasons taking the Cougars to six bowl games and registering a top-10 finish with an 11-2 record in 2018.
The Air Raid master has won everywhere he’s been and is now attempting to do the same at Mississippi State. Through 30 games, Leach is 16-14 at Mississippi State but could have a special year cooking in 2022 behind a good quarterback and experienced defense. Unfortunately, the schedule is brutal with four ranked foes waiting on the Bulldogs in the last half of the season.
Saturday will be the 50th all-time meeting between the two SEC programs as this is one of the most tightly contested matchups in the league. Mississippi State holds a slim 25-24 series lead. The home squad has won seven consecutive matchups since 2015. The Bulldogs have not won in Lexington since 2014 when Dan Mullen’s team rolled into town with a No. 1 ranking.
Out in the desert, Mississippi State is a 4-point favorite with a total of 49. That’s a projected final score of 26.5-22.5. On the season, Kentucky is 4-2 against the spread (ATS) and Mississippi State is 4-1-1 ATS this season. We’ve seen a lot of line movement with the line growing up to seven and then shrinking to four once it was reported that Will Levis was practicing. The Cats are 6-2-1 ATS as a home dog since 2016. Only Georgia has covered as a favorite at Kroger Field during that time. The under is 5-1 ATS in six Kentucky games this year.
Mississippi State offense
Mike Leach is in year three in Starkville, and this certainly looks like his best offense yet at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have a handful of three-year starters playing major snaps, and Will Rogers (6-2, 210, Jr.) appears to be in total control playing behind a good offensive line.
Let’s take a look at State’s statistical profile through six games this season.
- Scoring: 38.5 (No. 22 overall)
- Success Rate (provided by CFB Graphs): 47.9% (No. 16 overall)
- Yards Per Play: 6.3 (No. 37 overall)
- Yards Per Rush: 4.2 (No. 71 overall)
- Yards Per Attempt: 7.4 (T-73 overall)
- 3rd/4th Down Conversion Rate: 49.4% (No. 25 overall)
- Red Zone TD Rate: 90.5% (No. 2 overall)
- Points Per Drive: 3.28 (No. 17 overall)
Mississippi State is not super explosive, but this offense is an efficiency machine both on the ground and in the air. The Bulldogs stay ahead of the chains and thrive in situational football (3rd/4th down, red zone), and it has led to a bunch of points scored against Power Five competition. With a very high pass-play percentage (65.4%), the quarterback must play at a high level.
Will Rogers has been excellent in his third season as a starter.
The junior out of Brandon (Miss.) High has posted a 52.1 percent passing success rate while completing 71.6 percent of his passes and taking only eight sacks in 290 passing dropbacks. Rogers has tossed 22 touchdowns, is averaging 7.5 yards per attempt and has become a dink-and-dunk master in Leach’s Air Raid scheme. The quarterback sees his throws travel 10 yards or less at a 71.2 percent clip but has been able to connect on enough vertical go routes (13 of 23 on passes that travel 20-plus yards in the air) to make defenses pay. The veteran is playing at a high level and is firmly in the running for All-SEC honors.
Rogers is spraying the ball to a bunch of receivers, but the two top tailbacks are the most important skill-talent players on this roster.
Dillon Johnson (6-0, 215, Jr.) and Jo’quavious Marks (5-10, 210, Jr.) have combined to rush for 647 yards and eight touchdowns on 21.6 rushes per game. Each tailback has a success rate over 55 percent. Meanwhile, the duo has combined to collect 48 receptions for 339 yards on 52 total targets. The offense is attempting to get this duo a combined 30 touches per game on 73.2 snaps per game. The two tailbacks — in many ways — are the offense.
Johnson has been more explosive to this point with 13 rushes of 10-plus yards and a team-high 256 yards after catch (YAC). Mississippi State is going with more run calls against light boxes and uses the tailbacks on swing passes as an extension of the run game on checkdowns when wideouts are blanketed. Both Johnson and Marks are essential to this operation and must be slowed down.
At wideout, Mississippi State has seen seven players play over 100 snaps this season, and each has recorded at least 10 receptions. Will Rogers does not have a true No. 1 target, but that’s fine because this is a strength-in-numbers passing attack.
Caleb Ducking (6-5, 200, Sr.) and Rufus Harvey (5-10, 165, RSo.) entered Week 7 tied with a team-high 39 targets. The former is a big, possession receiver who has been targeted frequently in the red zone. Ducking leads the team in touchdown receptions (7). Harvey has a small depth of target (5.9 yards) as the team’s top slot receiver. His 27 receptions on 10 yards per catch often come underneath.
Opposite of Ducking, Rara Thomas (6-2, 200, So.) has been this offense’s most explosive playmaker. The former mid-three star recruit out of Alabama has 21 grabs on 32 targets leading the team in depth of target (12.5 yards) and yards per reception (17.5). Many of the vertical shots are going to Thomas on the outside whether on true go routes or fades when singled up in coverage.
The Bulldogs are deep at receiver and have a quarterback that can deliver the ball with accuracy at each level. That is leading to some terrific results in Starkville.
It’s easy to get caught up in the success of the throw game and the numbers the skill positions are posting, but the offensive line also plays a role. The front five must create a clean pocket and make blocks against light fronts to create rushing room. Through six games, Mississippi State has one of the better offensive lines in the SEC.
Center LaQuinston Sharp (6-3, 310, Super), right guard Cole Smith (6-3, 305, RSr.), and right tackle Kameron Jones (6-5, 315, RSr.) have all started over 20 career games for the Bulldogs. Meanwhile, both the left guard and left tackle are redshirt juniors. State has a ton of experience in the trenches with four starters coming from junior college or via transfer. Jones is the only starter that Mississippi State signed out of high school. For the most part, this group has kept Rogers clean and is creating room in the run game.
Overall, this is a typical Mike Leach offense. Mississippi State isn’t creating a ton of explosive plays but is an efficiency machine behind a dink-and-dunk passing game combined with a successful rushing attack. The one big change is how good this unit has been at finishing drives. That has been the separator for the Bulldogs in 2022. It also helps that this offense hasn’t lost a fumble all season or had a turnover in the last three weeks.
Mississippi State defense
There were many doubters in the southeastern footprint when Mike Leach joined the SEC about if the pass-happy head coach could pair a good offense with a good defense. Leach decided to use an unorthodox approach and it’s leading to solid results.
Zach Arnett has produced a top-50 defense in each of his first two seasons in Starkville and could have his best unit in 2022. Let’s take a look at State’s statistical profile on defense through six games this season.
- Scoring: 21.0 (T-39 overall)
- Success Rate: 35.6% (No. 23 overall)
- Yards Per Play: 5.4 (T-59 overall)
- Yards Per Rush: 4.5 (No. 99 overall)
- Yards Per Attempt: 6.2 (T-19 overall)
- 3rd/4th Down Conversion Rate: 31.6% (No. 12 overall)
- Red Zone TD Rate: 61.1% (No. 72 overall)
- Points Per Drive: 1.86 (No. 30 overall)
Arnett’s 3-3-5 structure is a scheme with gap cancellation principles as the Bulldogs will use movement both before and after the snap to shoot gaps to create havoc plays. However, this unit is not producing as much havoc as usual and that is bringing down the run defense.
Overall, the defense ranks sub-80 in both rush EPA and yards per rush. LSU and Arkansas each rushed for over 200 yards against this defense. The Bulldogs are not getting great play from their defensive front.
Nose tackle Cameron Young (6-3, 315, RSr.) anchors the attack inside. Nathan Pickering (6-4, 290, Sr.) leads the unit in snaps (287). Former UCF transfer Randy Charlton (6-3, 270, Super) leads the front in tackles (18) and sacks (2). The Bulldogs are not getting a lot of production at the point of attack. Mississippi State ranks No. 117 in tackles for loss per game (4.3). That is putting a lot of pressure on the linebackers.
Jett Johnson (6-2, 235, RSr.) and Nathaniel Watson (6-2, 240, RSr.) have combined to collect 98 tackles, seven tackles for loss, and three sacks. The former is on pace for over 120 tackles as the Bulldogs need these two to play at a high level each week. There have been some good and bad throughout the year.
At Sam linebacker, an argument can be made that Tyrus Wheat (6-2, 260, Super) has been the best player in this front seven. The former junior college transfer has logged 25 tackles and produced a ton of havoc with two sacks, two pass breakups, and three QB hurries. He plays like an old-school outside linebacker that can set the edge with physicality against the run and bring some burst as an edge rusher.
The front is having some issues, but this defense is being carried by the secondary. It all starts with star cornerback Emmanuel Forbes (6-0, 180, Jr.).
The former top-200 recruit is the best player on this defense and is playing like a first-round draft pick. The Grenada (Miss.) High product ranks No. 2 nationally in passes defended (10) with six pass breakups and four interceptions. The three-year starter now has 12 career interceptions and is one of the best cornerbacks in the SEC. Kentucky must know where No. 13 is on every snap and scheme off that.
At the three safety spots, both Collin Duncan (6-0, 210, Sr.) and former Texas transfer Jalen Green (6-1, 200, Super) return and are joined by West Virginia transfer Jackie Matthews (6-0, 190, RSr.) Arnett will tinker with these three players bringing different bodies into the box at different times. Matthews has missed a ton of tackles as the unit’s primary box player this season so that will be something to watch. Both Green and Duncan have been excellent producing sacks and pass breakups.
With the high-level play of Forbes, teams have been looking to attack Decamerion Richardson (6-2, 190, Jr.) at the other cornerback spot. However, he has held up well with 37 tackles bringing some physicality to the perimeter.
Arnett has seen his defense take a step back in run defense this season, but the pass defense has been very strong. Mississippi State leads the SEC in takeaways (12) and that has allowed them to create an edge over offenses. The Bulldogs produced six turnovers in their blowout wins against Arkansas and Texas A&M turning close games into decisive victories.
Mississippi State special teams
Similar to Kentucky’s third phase, Mississippi State has also had some kicking game issues. But the Bulldogs have a dynamic return game.
Coastal Carolina transfer Massimo Biscardi opened the season as the starter at placekicker but was replaced after the veteran missed two extra points against Arizona. Ben Rayborn has stepped in but has also missed a pair of extra point attempts in conference games and is 4 of 6 on field goal attempts.
Mike Leach has not been happy with his kicking situation.
In the return game, Lideartick Griffin has been exceptional averaging over 30 yards per attempt and is a threat to make a game-changing play anytime the ball is kicked to him. Meanwhile, true freshman Zavion Thomas has shown some real pop (10.7 yards per return) as State’s top punt returner.
At punter, things have been solid despite the Bulldogs using two punters. Mississippi State is averaging 41.4 net yards per attempt but most importantly has landed 12 of 21 punts inside the 20.
Both teams are doing some good things on special teams, but have been brought down by some glitchy moments.
Keys to Victory
— Once again, Kentucky is facing an SEC team from Mississippi that is dominant in the first quarter. The Bulldogs are outscoring foes 66-7 in the first 15 minutes, and Kentucky is being outscored 38-20 in that same time. The Cats must absorb the early haymaker. Leaving the first quarter tied or down only one possession will be a win. A lead in the first quarter could give the home team a chance at a double-digit victory as the Big Blue owns the scoring margin edge in every other quarter through six games.
— Over the last two games, Mississippi State posted consecutive season-highs in rushing yards as both Arkansas and Texas A&M had issues slowing down Dillon Johnson and Jo’Quavious Marks. The offense is best when it can run the ball consistently with inside zone against light boxes. However, both the Aggies and Hogs rank sub-90 in rush success rate. An argument can be made that Kentucky is the stingiest run defense that Mike Leach’s offense has seen all year ranking No. 12 in success rate. If the Cats take away the running game it could hinder the Air Raid offense’s overall efficiency.
— Both Spencer Rattler and Will Rogers have the same passes defended rate (10.6%). Rattler has thrown eight interceptions while Rogers has thrown only three. However, the junior has proven that he will take some chances across the middle. Through six games, Kentucky ranks inside the top 20 in passes defended. After producing just two pass breakups against Rogers last year, Kentucky must get its hands on the football on Saturday. Opportunities will arrive, and the defense must finish with interceptions when they do.
— Mississippi State has some legitimate run defense issues as their front has taken a step back in 2022. Both LSU and Arkansas rushed for over 200 yards. Texas A&M also had some success until the game got out of control. Kentucky has to establish the rock with Chris Rodriguez Jr. at home. A big rushing day is possible for the home team, and it should take some pressure off Kentucky’s iffy pass protection. No. 24 needs the ball in his hands early and often.
— Mississippi State has the top red zone offense outside of Ohio State. Kentucky has a top-25 red zone defense. The Wildcats don’t need to get a stop every time, but the Cats do need to force a couple. The Bulldogs are very efficient and will move the ball. The Big Blue must find a way to get some scoring opportunity stops on Saturday. The game could be won or lost when the Bulldogs have the ball in the red zone as this offense has scored touchdowns in every red zone trip for four consecutive games.
— Will Levis should return to the starting lineup on Saturday. Establishing the run will be important, but offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello needs to let QB1 cook. The draft prospect has taken a bunch of sacks, but the redshirt senior ranks No. 5 nationally in yards per attempt (10.0), leads the SEC in first down/touchdown rate (51.8%) and has a very strong success rate (54.6%) when taking out the sacks. Kentucky is going to give up pressures, but the offense needs to let the quarterback who is No. 2 nationally in 40-plus yard completions (8) spin it. Levis is the best quarterback that Mississippi State has faced this season, and Kentucky needs its best player to perform well on Saturday night.
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