Scouting Report: South Carolina Gamecocks
We had to wait until Week 6, but Kentucky’s SEC home opener has finally arrived. On Saturday night, those who partake will get to participate in the Keeneland double dip before what should be a great night with some cool temperatures rolling through the Bluegrass.
Shane Beamer will be bringing his second South Carolina team into Lexington in a spot where the Gamecocks desperately need a conference win. KSR’s deep dive scouting report is here to tell you what you need to know about the team from Columbia.
Nuts and Bolts
After a breakthrough 9-4 campaign in 2017 that ended with an upset win over Michigan in the Outback Bowl, things unraveled quickly for Will Muschamp at South Carolina. The former Florida head coach returned a ton of talent in 2018 highlighted by playmaker Deebo Samuel, but the Gamecocks finished just 7-6 as Muschamp again began to churn through offensive coordinators.
Three different assistants would call plays for the Gamecocks ending with Mike Bobo becoming the interim head coach once Muschamp was dismissed during the 2020 season. The SEC East program was 6-16 over two years heading into 2021, and decided to make a change.
The university went with familiarity and pedigree as former South Carolina assistant Shane Beamer was brought back to Columbia.
The versatile coach has worked with numerous positions during his career while working under Steve Spurrier (2007-10), Frank Beamer (2011-15), Kirby Smart (2016-17), and Lincoln Riley (2018-20). Shane Beamer, Frank’s son, convinced the South Carolina administration that he could bring a CEO-type approach to get the Gamecocks back to winning football. There was some proof of concept shown in year one.
Despite a poor personnel situation at quarterback, the Gamecocks clawed their way to seven wins and secured single-digit victories against Auburn, East Carolina, Troy, and Vanderbilt behind some opportunistic defense. There were some ugly moments filled with a lot of bad offense, but the Gamecocks laid a foundation and are currently building a potential top-15 recruiting haul in the class of 2023.
After a strong haul in the transfer portal along with Beamer doing any media hit he could, the Gamecocks entered the 2022 season with much buzz. However, Carolina fell woefully short in Power Five contests against Arkansas and Georgia. After scoring over 100 points against inferior competition over the last two weeks, this football program has built some confidence, but many are in prove-it mode regarding Beamer’s second team.
Saturday will be the 34th meeting between these two SEC programs with South Carolina owning a slim 18-14-1 series lead. The yearly matchup has been a series of runs with the Gamecocks winning 13 of 14 between 2000-13 and the Wildcats winning 7 of 8 since 2014. Carolina has not won in Lexington since 2012.
Out in the desert, Kentucky is a 6-point favorite with a total of 46.5. That’s a projected final score of around 26-20. On the season, the Cats are 4-1 against the spread (ATS), and the Gamecocks are 3-2 ATS. The under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two SEC East programs. Under Stoops, Kentucky is 8-1 ATS in this series.
South Carolina offense
Things were ugly for former Temple offensive coordinator and Tennessee Tech head coach Marcus Satterfield in year one at South Carolina. Under his guidance, the Gamecocks had the worst offense in the SEC outside of Vanderbilt.
Through five games, Carolina has made some strides, but the offense is still not 100 percent sure what to hang its hat on.
- Scoring: 35.6 (T-34 overall)
- Success Rate: 43.9% (No. 50 overall)
- Yards Per Play: 6.0 (T-53 overall)
- Yards Per Rush: 4.3 (No. 74 overall)
- Yards Per Attempt: 7.7 (No. 59 overall)
- 3rd/4th Down Conversion Rate: 38.3% (No. 84 overall)
- Red Zone TD Rate: 72% (No. 37 overall)
- Points Per Drive: 2.41 (No. 56 overall)
The Gamecocks haven’t been specifically bad at anything to start the season, but it feels like an operation that is unsure what its identity is. On the surface, Satterfield wants to run a pro-style offense similar to the versions seen with the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. The Gamecocks were banking on a former first-round prospect to help unlock things in Columbia.
That has not happened through five games.
Oklahoma transfer Spencer Rattler (6-1, 215, RJr.) threw for 28 touchdowns on 9.6 yards per attempt with a 67.5 percent completion rate in 2020 as Lincoln Riley’s next quarterback looked like another Heisman Trophy contender. Unfortunately, things went south for the former five-star prospect in 2021, and the Arizona native landed at South Carolina in 2022.
So far, Rattler is putting up career-worst numbers under Satterfield.
The one-time ballyhooed prospect has a woeful passing success rate (39.7%) as the South Carolina offense ranks No. 94 overall in that efficiency metric. Meanwhile, Rattler has seen 16 of his 161 throws end as an interception or pass breakup with a high number (7) being caught by the defense. After throwing the ball 77 times in the first two weeks of the season, Satterfield has scaled back the pass calls, but this offense still needs No. 7 to go out and make plays.
The Carolina passing game is having a very difficult time stringing drives together with intermediate completions. Rattler has the arm talent to make some vertical highlight throws, but if the home run shots are taken away this passing game can struggle.
On the perimeter, there are some identity worries as the top two players entering the season have had a surprisingly small usage rate. Wide receiver Josh Vann (5-11, 192, Super) and swiss army knife tight end Jaheim Bell (6-3, 232, Jr.) entered the season as potential All-SEC performers but have only received a combined 20 targets through 20 quarters of football. After force-feeding Bell the football in week one at tailback and as a pass catcher, the versatile wide back has seen limited touches. Vann — after leading the Gamecocks in receptions and targets last year — has been nowhere to be found receiving just nine targets on the year.
The personnel usage has been odd, but some weapons are emerging.
James Madison transfer Antwane Wells Jr. (6-1, 207, Jr.) leads this offense in targets (31), receptions (24), and receiving yards (309). The former FCS All-American is the clear go-to guy for Rattler who Satterfield will align both outside and in the slot.
Jalen Brooks (6-2, 205, Super) is in year three at South Carolina as the former lower-level transfer is starting to have some success as an outside weapon with 17 receptions on 20 targets. Former Georgia Tech transfer Ahmarean Brown (5-9, 167, Sr.) is the top option out of the slot.
The Gamecocks will use a good amount of 12 personnel on Saturday with both Bell and Oklahoma transfer Austin Stogner (6-5, 250, Sr.) on the field together. The duo has combined for 19 receptions and could see heavier usage moving forward.
As Carolina is dealing with inefficiency in the passing game and figuring out how to effectively use their personnel on the perimeter, the offense has been able to lean on a go-to guy at tailback. Former top-50 recruit MarShawn Lloyd (5-9, 212, RSo.) has been the best part of this offense early in the season.
After an ACL injury in his first year, Lloyd has taken some time to get back in the groove, but he now appears to be at full strength. The DMV product has rushed for 324 yards on 53 attempts averaging 6.1 yards per attempt and posting a solid success rate (50.9%). The rushing attack has found life in recent weeks, and Lloyd has a lot to do with that.
The tailback is also a big weapon in the passing game reeling in 13 grabs on 18 targets with three explosive receptions. The former blue-chipper has accounted for eight touchdowns this season and is Carolina’s best player. Rattler will look to him and Juju McDowell (5-9, 180, So.) a ton in the passing game as tailbacks have accumulated 29 receptions on 109 South Carolina completions this year.
On paper, the offensive line should be a strength for South Carolina as this unit brought back multiple starters. That is not the case. Once again, the Gamecocks have one of the worst offensive lines in the SEC and have played seven players over 120 snaps as the offense looks for answers. Offensive line coach Greg Adkins took a leave of absence for a health issue last week. The unit is struggling despite some strong rushing performances against inferior competition over the last two weeks.
It’s clear that the offense has improved in year two under Satterfield, but there are still a lot of worries. Against tougher competition, defenses will be able to take away Lloyd and will force Rattler to beat them. The scheme and the quarterback have yet to prove they can do that.
South Carolina defense
Clayton White is back for year two at South Carolina, and the former WKU defensive coordinator has a unit that is coming short of expectations in 2022. After fielding a top-50 defense last season that feasted off of takeaways, the Gamecocks are regressing to the mean this year and that is leading to some ineffective play for this 4-2-5 scheme.
Let’s dive into Carolina’s statistical profile through 20 quarters this season.
- Scoring: 27.2 (T-79 overall)
- Success Rate: 46.1% (No. 117 overall)
- Yards Per Play: 5.3 (T-59 overall)
- Yards Per Rush: 4.4 (No. 98 overall)
- Yards Per Attempt: 6.8 (T-55 overall)
- 3rd/4th Down Conversion Rate: 46.8% (No. 113 overall)
- Red Zone TD Rate: 73.7% (No. 112 overall)
- Points Per Drive: 2.65 (No. 88 overall)
The Gamecocks are doing a fairly good job at limiting explosives, but the efficiency has been terrible to start the season. It all starts with the run defense as teams have pounded the rock against this front. In situational football (third down, red zone), the defense is struggling.
In a week two loss to Arkansas, Carolina lost starting linebacker Mo Kaba and EDGE Jordan Strachan for the season. That has hindered the defense, but this group should be playing better football. The defensive line is not playing to its recruiting rankings.
In the trenches, South Carolina will play five players who were former blue-chip recruits out of high school. Jordan Burch (6-6, 275, Jr.) and Zacch Pickens (6-4, 305, Sr.) were in-state five-star recruiting wins for the Gamecocks, but neither has played to that standard yet. Pickens is the defense’s best interior player while Burch plays defensive end and leads the defensive line in snaps (239).
Quietly, former low three-star recruit Gilber Edmond (6-5, 250, RSo.) is giving the defense great production with six tackles for loss and five QB hurries. However, getting the quarterback on the ground has been an issue for a defense that is very blitz heavy but this group does produce pressure.
At the second level, veterans Sherrod Greene (6-1, 233, Super) and Brad Johnson (6-2, 238, Super) team up at off-ball linebacker, but this group has had some struggles. Losing Kaba was a big blow, and the Gamecocks are slowly trying to work true freshman Stone Blanton (6-2, 235, Fr.) into this spot. Run fits have been an issue as the defense ranks No. 116 in rushing success rate and No. 113 in rushing EPA.
The strength of the defense is in the secondary and that has shown up with quality pass numbers this year. South Carolina has produced a lot of ball production (7 interceptions, 20 pass breakups) and ranks inside the top 30 of 20-plus yard completions (12) allowed. The defense needs this experienced unit to play at a high level.
Cam Smith (6-0, 188, RJr.) is the best player on this side of the ball for the Gamecocks and will align at both nickel and outside cornerback for the defense. The former top-150 recruit has six career interceptions and is a potential first-round prospect. Kentucky must know where No. 9 is on every snap.
At outside cornerback, Marcellas Dial (6-0, 192, RJr.) leads the team in passes defended (2 interceptions, 5 pass breakups) and Darius Rush (6-2, 200, RSr.) is expected to return on Saturday after missing two consecutive games with injury. At safety, Nick Emmanwori (6-4, 218, Fr.) has been a revelation as a rookie and leads the team in tackles (34). Expect White to sneak the big safety into the box often to help in run fits.
South Carolina has been limited by injuries to start this season. The Gamecocks have lost some key pieces and it has resulted in some poor run defense to start the year. Entering Week 6, White’s unit is going to give up yards on the ground but is willing to take risks with bringing the blitz as the secondary can cover mistakes when everything is clicking.
Kentucky will face another defense that will challenge its offensive line with numbers.
South Carolina special teams
Coming off a game with some big blunders in the kicking game, Kentucky will now face one of the best special teams units in college football on Saturday.
Under special teams coordinator Pete Lembo, Carolina returned two blocked punts for touchdowns against Georgia State and then came back last week and blocked two more punts against South Carolina State. Over the last two years, the Gamecocks have blocked 18 total kicks. Kentucky’s protection must be on point this week.
Mitch Jeter has stepped in this season at placekicker and already has two makes from 50-plus yards. When it comes time for PAT, South Carolina has gotten creative with a swinging gate formation and that has resulted in a pair of successful two-point conversions in the last two games.
The Gamecocks also attempted an onside kick last week. Lembo’s unit is aggressive and will take some chances on Saturday.
At punter, Kai Kroeger has seen 10 of 17 punts downed inside the 20 as opponents have gotten off just four returns this season. In the return game, the Gamecocks are allowing just 13.7 yards per kick return with a 58.6 percent touchback rate. Meanwhile, Carolina has shown some juice in both punt returns and kick returns.
The Gamecocks are elite in the third phase. Kentucky must be on its special teams A game on Saturday night.
Keys to Victory
— Is Will Levis going to play? That’s the million-dollar question in the Bluegrass right now. If Kentucky’s QB1 is unable to go, it doesn’t alter the game plan a ton. Facing a good secondary on a team that wants to blitz a ton, Kentucky must establish the run against a poor South Carolina front. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has had a lot of success against the Gamecocks (46 carries, 348 yards, 4 touchdowns, 7.6 yards per rush), and the Cats will need a big effort from the All-SEC tailback on Saturday. Regardless if Levis is in the game or not, it will be highly disappointing if Kentucky is unable to get the ground game rolling on Saturday.
— South Carolina wants to be balanced on offense, but all of their efficiency is coming from the ground game. If the Gamecocks are unable to get MarShawn Lloyd rolling, their offense should have issues putting extended drives together against a top-15 Kentucky defense. If the Cats can limit the run and take away explosive passes, Carolina will have difficulty scoring points.
— South Carolina is elite on special teams and will take some risks in the third phase. Kentucky must bow up and hold its ground. If the home team plays the game to a draw in the third phase it could be hard for the Gamecocks to pull an upset.
— Kentucky has only forced multiple takeaways in one game this season. South Carolina’s offense has had three multiple-turnover games on offense. Only Utah State has lost the football more than the Gamecocks this season. If Kentucky’s offense is limited, getting extra possessions from the defense would go a long way.
— When digging deeper, South Carolina’s defense has struggled in situational football. The Gamecocks have had a lot of difficulties getting stops on third down and in the red zone. Last week, Kentucky ruined three fourth-quarter scoring opportunities on their way to a three-point road loss. When chances arrive, the Cats must finish scoring chances with points against a defense that is struggling to get off the field.
— Both Kentucky and South Carolina have been slow-starting teams to begin the season. The Gamecocks are losing the first quarter 28-14, and the Wildcats are losing the first quarter 31-20. Meanwhile, each squad plays its best football as the game moves on. Whoever goes up early could grab the quick advantage on Saturday.
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