SEC Bubble Watch

 

 

Oh boy. Tennessee and Missouri what have you done? I give you chance after chance and this is how you repay me? The SEC’s worst fear may be coming to fruition. There is a legitimate possibility that only two teams from the conference make the tournament. In fact at this point, it may be likely.

 

Chew on this: As of now, only three teams have winning records in the SEC, two of them the obvious Florida and Kentucky, the other the upstart Georgia Bulldogs. Seven, SEVEN teams in the SEC are at exactly .500, including the four bubble teams, Mizzou, Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU. Ugh. But I digress, let’s take a look at the ever-shrinking bubble picture in the SEC.

 

Locks: Florida (25-2, RPI 3, SOS 32), Kentucky (21-6, RPI 10, SOS 4)

 

Nothing much to see here. These two teams have been locks for quite some time now and are just playing for seeding. At this point, anything other than a 1-seed would be a disappointment for the Gators, who are probably the favorites for the number 1 overall seed to date. The Cats seed possibilities are a little more diverse, being that their profile has some good and some bad. The good? UK has great computer numbers (their BPI is 4th as well), 13 RPI top-100 wins, they went out and played top competition in the non-conference (something the committee loves) and they have no bad losses. On the flip side, the Cats have no RPI top-25 wins (c’mon, Louisville) and a 6-5 record away from Rupp. If the Cats finish strong (meaning a win over Florida either in Gainesville or Atlanta) they can grab a 3-seed, or they can slip to a 5-seed if they don’t do much else.

 

Right Side of the Bubble: Missouri (19-8, RPI 45, SOS 66)

 

Somehow, Mizzou is still probably on the right side of the bubble, even after this weekend’s disappointing loss to Alabama. Sure, winning on the road is hard, but Alabama is bad. I suppose after three close wins a close loss was inevitable. With only four games remaining, the Tigers need to win their next three as another bad loss would crush them. Their next three games are against Georgia (who they lost to in Columbia), Mississippi State and Texas A&M. Should be three wins, right? Who knows at this point.

 

Wrong Side of the Bubble: Tennessee (15-11, RPI 58, SOS 12)

 

Everyone’s favorite bracketologist Joe Lunardi has them in, but I’m not sure how someone could justify putting them in at this point. They only have six top-100 wins, one top-50 win, a 4-8 road record and they’ve been swept by Texas A&M. Seriously, UT?.. Texas A&M? Their win over Virginia is literally carrying this profile at this point and I don’t think that’s good enough to get in. Win your last four games and then we’ll talk.

 

Sorry Ole Miss and LSU, but I told you last week what you had to do to get back in the bubble conversation, and you didn’t do it. LSU was close to doing what they needed to, but then they got Randled.

 

@BWardKSR