SEC Bubble Watch

 

 

I see you, Tennessee. They say teams that are playing their best down the stretch tend to get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to making the tournament and the Vols certainly are after absolutely dominating their last three opponents by an average of 31 points per game. Because of this dominance, Tennessee has shot up in the KenPom rankings all the way to 13th, making them the highest KenPom rated bubble team since its creation. Unfortunately for Tennessee, the committee looks at resume and not total team strength. But more on the Vols later. Let’s take a look at the SEC teams and what they’d need to do to make the tournament in this week’s Bubble Watch:

 

Florida, Kentucky: At this point both teams are just playing for seeding, just of different variety. Florida has all but locked up a number 1 seed in the tournament, and an SEC tournament victory over Missouri or Texas A&M would probably lock it up. An SEC Tournament Championship for the Gators would also probably give Florida the top seed overall. Kentucky, on the other hand, has a plethora of seeding options from a 5-seed to maybe a 9-seed. A tournament championship that has them beating LSU, Georgia and Florida may be good enough to get them a 5-seed, whilst an early tournament exit to either LSU or Alabama could drop the Cats as far as a 9-seed. The way things have been going lately, the latter seems more probable than the former.

 

Tennessee: As good as the Vols are, they are far from a lock to make the tournament. At 19-11 (against D1 opponents), the Vols boast an RPI of 46 and an SOS of 16, which are both good enough marks to make the tournament.However, a first round SEC tournament loss to either Arkansas, South Carolina or Auburn would make things incredibly iffy, if not doubtful. They can beat crappy teams by as much as they want but at the end of the day they already have three bad losses and a fourth would be killer (although a loss to Arkansas wouldn’t really be that bad). I think a first round win and a loss to Florida will get the job done, but please UT, just win that first game because I don’t like the possibility of a 2-bid SEC.

 

Arkansas: As of three days ago things looked pretty swell for the Razorbacks. They were winning road games and dominating teams at home and then Saturday happened. The Hogs went in to Tuscaloosa to face the pitiful Crimson Tide and lost by 25. 25! That’s the same Alabama team that they beat by seven at home a little over a month ago. Oy. So what does this mean for Arkansas’ tournament hopes? Well, for starters, they definitely need to beat the winner of Auburn-South Carolina. If they lose to either of those teams they are done. Truthfully, though, they need to beat Tennessee to give themselves a shot on Selection Sunday. A win over Tennessee would give the Hogs a 5-3 record vs. the RPI top-50, and another game vs. Florida (presumably) would give them a boost in SOS. In order to lock themselves in the tournament, though, a win against Florida is necessary.

 

Missouri: In the big bubble battle Saturday against Tennessee, the Tigers laid a proverbial egg. Mizzou now sits as the 8-seed in the SEC, with a 21-10 record, an RPI of 56 and an SOS of 83. They only have two top-50 wins, and went 1-7 on the road in conference play. Still, the Tigers have a shot at an at-large bid. First, they must beat both Texas A&M and Florida. I know that’s going to be really hard to do, but the Gators don’t have much to play for and the Tigers already played them tough once this season. But, I’m not sure doing just that will get them in. If Mizzou wants to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday, they best make the conference tournament finals. Can they? Sure. Will they? Doubtful.

 

Everyone Else: Better win it (sorry, Georgia).

 

@BWardKSR