Shaedon Sharpe's upcoming draft decision presents uncomfortable reality

Kentucky’s loss in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament was disheartening, unsettling and downright embarrassing. Inexcusable across the board, an all-systems failure for the Wildcats.

It was a loss that closed the door on a season with so much potential, the highest of highs. Kentucky looked unbeatable in blowout wins over North Carolina, Kansas and at home against Tennessee, a clear title contender for much of the year. Rather than capitalizing on that potential, though, the Wildcats pulled the rug out from underneath themselves in historic fashion. Individual accolades and records, sure, but nothing to show for it as a team.

This season is now over, with only draft and transfer decisions remaining for the current roster. The biggest is coming from a player who didn’t record a single minute this season, a decision that could make or break Kentucky’s title hopes next year.

Shaedon Sharpe was brought in to be John Calipari’s next superstar, a consensus top-three recruit with elite three-level scoring and explosiveness. The five-star guard led the prestigious Nike Peach Jam last summer with 22.6 points per game on 48 percent shooting and 36.4 percent from three to go with 5.8 rebounds and 2.7 assists per contest. He finished with 20 or more points eight times, 25 or more six times, and 30 or more points twice. Sharpe was clearly college-ready, and he made that clear by enrolling in school a semester early, arriving in Lexington in January.

From there, 20 games would roll by for Kentucky with Sharpe on the team. Eligible to play at any point, Calipari waffled on the idea of letting the dynamic scorer take the floor. He first said the priority was getting Sharpe in game shape and seeing how he adjusted to the pace and speed of the game. With the offense firing on all cylinders during that stretch, his presence wasn’t really needed on the floor. Then when the offense started sputtering to close out the year, it was too late in the process to throw him in, even though the UK head coach considered it.

“At one point, he and I sat down and talked about it,” Calipari said following Kentucky’s loss to Saint Peter’s.
“But you know, I think that was what was best for him is how we did it.”

From a talent standpoint, Sharpe was there. Even after Calipari announced in February the standout freshman would sit out the entire year, he considered giving it a shot.

“Would he have been a good player this year? Yeah, he’d been pretty good. He’d have been pretty good,” Calipari said. “But he joined us midseason. Trying to get him up to all the stuff that we were doing was hard. Then it came a point late, maybe we could should have him in there. We just, you know, together, chose, let’s just wait.”

Calipari chose to wait on what amounts to a pinky promise from Sharpe and his camp. Despite the intrigue of earning millions as a top-five draft pick and beginning his NBA career, the standout guard has been adamant about returning to school.

“It’s pretty idiotic. Everybody knew (going to the draft) was an option, but we’re not taking it,” Sharpe’s former coach and mentor, Dwayne Washington, told KSR in January. “He lost millions coming to school. He came to get better. … You come to get ready if you want to go to the NBA, which is one of the goals. You have to be ready. People don’t respect Calipari’s ability to develop enough, that’s why (Shaedon’s) there.

“He’s not there to sit on the bench and wave at fans. He’s coming back next year. If he doesn’t play this year, he’s coming back next year.”

20 games later, zero minutes played. The first part of that scenario played out, now it’s up to Sharpe to go through with the second. And it’s one heck of a waiting game Kentucky will have to play, one that will completely change the trajectory of its 2022-23 season either way.

Should he come back to school, Sharpe is a potential 20-point-per-game scorer, a clear No. 1 option for any contending team. He fits perfectly at the two or three, a plug-and-play star on the wing. And he has a full semester under his belt learning the system and working with the strength and conditioning staff. Look at what that half-year did for Oscar Tshiebwe. It’s a best-case scenario for the program, putting Sharpe in prime position to be a No. 1 draft pick in 2023.

Now take that instant-impact star away from a team that is also expected to lose TyTy Washington, Kellan Grady and Davion Mintz from the backcourt. No blue-chip recruits remain in the class of 2022, reclassification options aren’t clear in 2023 and it’s still too early to see what kind of talent will enter the transfer portal. The fact of the matter, though, is that finding a replacement of Sharpe’s caliber is easier said than done. Three-level scorers with Sharpe’s size and athleticism don’t grow on trees, which is why NBA teams are drooling at the opportunity to select him as soon as possible. A joint effort to match the production, sure, but finding a single go-to threat that compares to the Kentucky freshman is highly, highly unlikely.

As uncomfortable as it may be, Sharpe’s draft decision puts Kentucky in an extremely difficult situation this offseason, especially if it drags closer toward the deadline. Without a final answer, would the top portal options be interested in joining the fold, knowing there’s a chance Sharpe could come back at the withdrawal deadline in June? If he comes back, great. Best-case scenario, let’s roll the balls out and get ready for 2022-23. If not, though, we could see a situation unfold where the top portal options are already off the board and Kentucky comes away empty-handed — or with lesser talent, at most.

Sharpe is a player you wait on and it’s a risk worth taking — not that Kentucky had a choice. When the No. 1 player in the country tells you he’s enrolling early, take it or leave it, you take it. It’s a home-run swing that could present massive rewards, a game-changing talent you build your roster around. Miss that swing, and there’s a glaring hole in the rotation that may not be filled with player capable of leading you to a Final Four.

Oscar Tshiebwe could return and ease the pain, sure. But even his herculean 30-point, 16-rebound effort wasn’t enough to avoid an opening-round upset against No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s, the Wildcats needed more. Kentucky is set to bring in two top recruits in Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston, but those players are complementary pieces to a true star like Sharpe. Even with them, you’re still missing the guy.

That guy is on the roster and was for 20 games this season. Anything beyond that is now up in the air. Kentucky will have its first none-and-done or it will get a potential top-five pick for an unprecedented 1.5 seasons. The team’s title hopes may rest on the latter.