Pic by Andy Lyons, Getty Images
Its been a heck of a weekend around these parts. From the snow and ice (is it just me or is this entire state one big puddle?) to the ongoing drama in Louisville (can you imagine a UL Basketball Reality Show?) to the NFL Combine (people in tight, ugly green clothes doing boring things), there has been a lot to talk about for a random February weekend. But who are we kidding? While there are a lot of diversionary topics to discuss,
the only thing that really matters right now is the 27-0 UK Basketball team. Saturday was an exquisite example of this team at its best. The Cats got up and down the court, scored at will on a conference opponent and finished with 110 points (the most since 2002), an Arena on its feet and the realization that the team is hitting its stride at the perfect time. While one could nitpick (really only about the second half defense that allowed Auburn to finish with 11 three pointers for the game), honestly to do so would just be selfish. We witnessed a spectacle on Saturday and it has me as confident as ever that the Cats are the best team in the nation by a wide margin.
Being the best team does not guarantee a Tournament title (bad games, randomness and luck ensure that), but it is likely the case that
this Kentucky team is as big an overwhelming favorite going into the Tournament as any in recent memory. If Kentucky plays like they did on Saturday, they won't lose a game and will finish at 40-0. We wondered just a few weeks ago if Kentucky was able to hit its high gear again, but after performances over the last couple of weeks, I feel as good about this team as I have since the beginning of the year. When I look at the rest of the nation, I think the Tournament sets up like this:
IF UK plays at its best: There is no one that can beat the Cats. When at their peak gear (think UCLA, Auburn), they as dominant as any team we have seen since the 96 Cats, primarily because of their overwhelming defense. If the Cats come close to 100% effort defensively and can even be moderately efficient on offense, they win against any opponent in the nation.
If UK Plays Well: If the Cats play well, but not at their peak efficiency (let's say like they did against North Carolina for instance), then I think there are only two teams that can beat them, Duke and Wisconsin. If Duke is hitting threes and getting out on the break, they can score on a high enough level to get to the 70 point threshold that I think is required to beat Kentucky. Similarly, Wisconsin has the ability to be patient and get good shots, while also having enough of an inside presence that if Kentucky isn't at 100% energy or focus, an upset can occur.
If Kentucky Plays Mediocre: If the Cats are just ok (like say against Louisville), then another couple of teams become potential upset winners on a neutral court. I would put Arizona, Virginia and Gonzaga in this category as teams that if Kentucky is just having an average day, and they are playing at their peak, can knock off the Cats. Of these three, Gonzaga is the most bizarre because they can guard no one, but have the ability to score in a variety of ways, possibly the most diverse offense in the country. Throw in the Wiltjer factor and it would be an interesting affair.
If Kentucky Plays Badly: If the Cats are simply off their game on both ends (think Texas A&M, Columbia), then there are a number of other teams that can knock them off. Teams with slowdown, physical defenses would worry me the most, and UK is likely to see a game like this in the second round in Louisville. Come out and perform and it will be no problem. But a lack of focus, especially early could lead to an unnecessarily close game.
Not sure what I think of the Karl Towns "Vest only" look
That may seem overly optimistic, but I think it is also accurate. While UK has had tough tests,
the close games have all come on the opposing team's home floor (besides Ole Miss) and the Tournament will see a massive pro-UK crowd, as Cats' fans flood these "neutral" courts. That however does not mean that UK can't lose. One of the best things about the NCAA Tournament is the randomness it provides, but it can be especially maddening when you are the best team in the country. UK has gone into the Tournament the overwhelming favorite twice in recent years (1996 and 2012) and won it both times. But in three other instances (2003, 2004 and 2010) UK has been the slight favorite and has not even made the Final Four. And in three other instances (1998, 2011 and 2014), UK was not considered a likely title contender and has either won, or nearly won, it all. Merit is a huge part of winning a national championship, but it isn't the sole factor. And that is what makes March great, and stressful.
All one can ask for is a chance to cut down the nets. And Saturday's game proved once again,
UK will never have a better chance to win #9 this year. Everything a team could want, this team has. They protect the rim as well as any team in college basketball history, they guard the perimeter much better than expected, they are an exquisite passing team, have good to great shooters, are unselfish at times to a fault and have a mental toughness that continues to amaze. The only worry to me is a lack of an individual star, but as of yet this season, that has not been a hinderance. No matter what happens in March, Calipari and the fans can take solace in this. The team is as well-prepared as possible and really, that is all you can do.
With that said, a couple of quick notes:
It is worth celebrating just how
amazing this performance at the Combine was by Bud Dupree today. He measured out as a freak of nature...6'4", 270 pounds, 4.57 40 yard dash, 11.6 Broad jump (the third highest recorded since 2006). Bud was a freak on the field at Kentucky and his NFL future looks to be even brighter. When Mark Stoops says (as he has) that Dupree is as good as he has ever coached, with the FSU and Miami background, that means something. Congrats to the young man who is a really great kid off the field as well as on.
--- I won't dwell on this on here (we will talk more about it on radio), but if you listen to KSR, the
news about Chris Jones being kicked off was not surprising. As I said on the show back in late December, Jones left the UL program after the UK game and quit the team. He was then allowed back on and I said at the time that there was no way he would make it until March. UL folks (and their media liaisons) denied this, but as with Kevin Ware and Chane Behanan, those denials did not change the underlying truth. Last Saturday after the NC State game, I am told he was involved in some way in a fight on 4th Street that was fairly substantial. He was then suspended for the Syracuse game because of the fight and then reinstated. Whether this new expulsion is due to ramifications of that fight (potentially it soon being public or more details coming out) or is because of a new incident, remains to be seen. What is clear is that this was entirely predictable. UL turned their heads many times on this kid and it has ultimately come back to bite them.
--- Finally, the
Tony Delk retirement ceremony was a great moment in Rupp Arena. The video of Tony's best moments brought back a lot of memories and the chance to see Tony (who looks like he hasn't aged a day since he played) was even better. Here is a picture taken by a Rupp Arena Blue Coat (my man Brad) of Calipari at the start of the second half looking up at Delk's jersey in the rafters with Tony. Very cool picture from a great day.
Pic by Andy Lyons, Getty Images
Its been a heck of a weekend around these parts. From the snow and ice (is it just me or is this entire state one big puddle?) to the ongoing drama in Louisville (can you imagine a UL Basketball Reality Show?) to the NFL Combine (people in tight, ugly green clothes doing boring things), there has been a lot to talk about for a random February weekend. But who are we kidding? While there are a lot of diversionary topics to discuss, the only thing that really matters right now is the 27-0 UK Basketball team. Saturday was an exquisite example of this team at its best. The Cats got up and down the court, scored at will on a conference opponent and finished with 110 points (the most since 2002), an Arena on its feet and the realization that the team is hitting its stride at the perfect time. While one could nitpick (really only about the second half defense that allowed Auburn to finish with 11 three pointers for the game), honestly to do so would just be selfish. We witnessed a spectacle on Saturday and it has me as confident as ever that the Cats are the best team in the nation by a wide margin.
Being the best team does not guarantee a Tournament title (bad games, randomness and luck ensure that), but it is likely the case that this Kentucky team is as big an overwhelming favorite going into the Tournament as any in recent memory. If Kentucky plays like they did on Saturday, they won't lose a game and will finish at 40-0. We wondered just a few weeks ago if Kentucky was able to hit its high gear again, but after performances over the last couple of weeks, I feel as good about this team as I have since the beginning of the year. When I look at the rest of the nation, I think the Tournament sets up like this:
IF UK plays at its best: There is no one that can beat the Cats. When at their peak gear (think UCLA, Auburn), they as dominant as any team we have seen since the 96 Cats, primarily because of their overwhelming defense. If the Cats come close to 100% effort defensively and can even be moderately efficient on offense, they win against any opponent in the nation.
If UK Plays Well: If the Cats play well, but not at their peak efficiency (let's say like they did against North Carolina for instance), then I think there are only two teams that can beat them, Duke and Wisconsin. If Duke is hitting threes and getting out on the break, they can score on a high enough level to get to the 70 point threshold that I think is required to beat Kentucky. Similarly, Wisconsin has the ability to be patient and get good shots, while also having enough of an inside presence that if Kentucky isn't at 100% energy or focus, an upset can occur.
If Kentucky Plays Mediocre: If the Cats are just ok (like say against Louisville), then another couple of teams become potential upset winners on a neutral court. I would put Arizona, Virginia and Gonzaga in this category as teams that if Kentucky is just having an average day, and they are playing at their peak, can knock off the Cats. Of these three, Gonzaga is the most bizarre because they can guard no one, but have the ability to score in a variety of ways, possibly the most diverse offense in the country. Throw in the Wiltjer factor and it would be an interesting affair.
If Kentucky Plays Badly: If the Cats are simply off their game on both ends (think Texas A&M, Columbia), then there are a number of other teams that can knock them off. Teams with slowdown, physical defenses would worry me the most, and UK is likely to see a game like this in the second round in Louisville. Come out and perform and it will be no problem. But a lack of focus, especially early could lead to an unnecessarily close game.
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