The Final Countdown to the Gator Bowl

The TaxSlayer Gator Bowl is close. Really close. The Cats and Wolfpack will square off in Jacksonville in one of the more intriguing postseason matchups. A UK win would be its third consecutive bowl victory. A Wolfpack win would serve as validation for its No. 23 national ranking and the satisfaction of beating a team from the big, bad SEC. However, 2020 is not the season for bowl game chest thumping. It’s just not. Too many outside factors. Florida’s opt-out laden roster was dismantlement by Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl. The Sooners proved my theory that the bowl game “Give a Crap Meter” is real. Mississippi State embarrassed itself and the league with its scary brawl with Tulsa after the Armed Forces Bowl. Hey Georgia, you’re on deck against Cincinnati.

Something has to give on Saturday. There will be a winner. One team will take home the TaxSlayer Bowl championship trophy. Hopefully, it won’t be broken during a postgame celebration like Wisconsin’s after thumping Wake Forest. There will also be a loser. Both teams have a great deal riding on Saturday’s contest. Let’s take a final look at Kentucky and NC State:

A KENTUCKY WIN WOULD MEAN

A UK victory would provide a launch point into a crucial offseason that will feature a new offensive coordinator and scheme. Kentucky offensive players are virtually trying out for 2021. Liam Coen will watch this game tape in order to see the hand he’s been dealt.

A Wildcat win would also upgrade its current 4-6 record. Some may view 2020 as a disappointment. But, I’d like to argue that given the vast amount of adversity that this team faced, winning four games can be viewed as an achievement. From all accounts, the Christmas break provided a refreshing outlook for Mark Stoops’ team. His emotionally-drained squad has one more opportunity to beat a ranked opponent.

There are five Cats that have submitted their names to the NFL Underclass Draft Advisory Committee. A world-beating effort on Saturday could add to the league’s collection of tape to be evaluated. This especially applies to All American tackle Darian Kinnard. The NC State defense is aggressive and will force the issue along the line of scrimmage. A solid performance could equal money.

A NC STATE WIN WOULD MEAN

A Wolfpack win would offer its fans an opportunity to chant S-E-C towards the final bell. The social-distanced Oklahoma faithful surely seemed to enjoy that on Wednesday night. ACC programs must get sick and tired about hearing about their big brothers from the south. Beating a 4-6 Kentucky team won’t raise eyebrows. But, a win over an SEC opponent would go miles in the conference street cred game.

All-American nose tackle Alim McNeill will be playing his final collegiate game in the Gator Bowl. Unlike the Florida crew, McNeill decided to suit up one more time with his teammates. Respect.

Much like with Darian Kinnard, McNeill could make a small fortune with a dominant performance against the Big Blue Wall. To be more specific, against All-SEC center Drake Jackson. The junior defensive lineman has plenty to prove and is the best nose tackle that the Cats will have faced in 2020. The Jackson vs. McNeill matchup is one of the bowl season’s best.

WHAT TO EXPECT

My best professional answer to this question is, “Who the heck knows.” This game is a toss-up at best. NC State has the most quality win after beating Liberty 15-14. Other than that game, neither the Cats or Wolfpack have defeated a high-level opponent. NC State won several close games against average at best conference foes. And, that’s okay. A sign of a good team is beating opponents that it should. I honestly can’t tell if NC State is 8-3 good or they benefitted from a friendly schedule. We’ll see.

Vince Marrow will be calling offensive plays. This has to be a positive for the Cats. Marrow has answered the bell with every assignment handed down by Mark Stoops. I don’t expect Saturday to be different. The 2020 season saw a Wildcat offense that was highly predictable, especially on first downs as well as 3rd and 6+ scenarios. Simply stated, NC State will not have tendencies to analyze. There is no research available for Marrow’s game plan. UK’s unpredictability and significant advantage in the turnover margin (UK +7, NC State -3) could be its biggest advantages.

UK will again face a 3-3-5 Stack. The Wildcats secured their first win of the season against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs ran the same defense that Kentucky will face on Saturday. The results were not good. The Cats managed just 10 first downs and 157 total yards. Similar to the season as a whole, Kentucky struggled in the passing game after completing 8 passes out of 21 attempts for 73 yards. Mississippi State registered six tackles for loss and two quarterback sacks. Solving the 3-3-5 puzzle is difficult for a team that lacks playmakers. This concerns me, greatly.

I do expect the Big Blue Wall to go out in style. Drake Jackson, Luke Fortner, Landon Young and Darian Kinnard could all be playing their final games in the blue and white. That means something to that proud unit. With Marrow calling the plays, expect a heavy dose of tight end passing targets. That is not just because the Big Dog coaches that particular position. UK’s most reliable and threatening pass catchers are TEs Justin Rigg and Keaton Upshaw. Both were grossly underutilized in 2020.

Sources tell KSR that Joey Gatewood has practiced at the highest level of his short Wildcat career. The Jacksonville native has rediscovered his confidence. RB Chris Rodriguez will need more than his season average of 12 carries in this game. Twelve carries per game. Unbelievable. Marrow will use his prize runner more so than the previous regime.

The 2021 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl is so 2020. 4-6 Kentucky is favored over 8-3 NC State. However, atypically, the Cats and Pack have zero opt-outs from their final regular season depth charts. I fully expect this game to be high-spirited. Both teams urgently want and need this win. The ole but proven bowl game “Give a Crap Meter” will be maxed out for both teams. This one is going to be fun.

My last point of interest is conditioning.  Kentucky players went home for Christmas. I’m fairly certain that NC State did the same. In an odd year, bowl prep has been different. Jumping back into playing shape after a lapse in usual conditioning time could be an issue especially for the Wolfpack if it intends to go warp speed on offense.

Saturday can’t get here soon enough.