The John Calipari Bread and Butter has Molded Lately

It’s obviously not been a fun few weeks (or years) for John Calipari. The persistent disappointing ends to multiple consecutive seasons have led to a massive investigation into the issues within the program. Cal’s relationship with the fans, media, and his own AD has been broken down. The quality of his assistant coaches has been at the forefront this week. Style of play was a complaint for several years, although improved this year. In-game coaching. It can’t be comfortable for a guy with such success to face such criticism, whether warranted or not.

But I don’t think nearly enough attention is being paid to the absolute #1 reason you want a coach like John Calipari: RECRUITING. Above all else, you have to have elite players on the floor. And that is what Cal changed from the moment he arrived in Lexington. Just look at how often John Calipari knocked it out of the park during his first 10 years. His ability to almost never miss on elite players he brought was unprecedented.

Below are all players who were ranked in the TOP 30 in the final On3 rankings:

CLASS OF 2009 THROUGH 2018 (10 SEASONS)

• 2009: John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, Daniel Orton, Eric Bledsoe
• 2010: Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, Doron Lamb
• 2011: Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marquis Teague, Kyle Wiltjer
• 2012: Nerlens Noel, Alex Poythress, Archie Goodwin
• 2013: Julius Randle, Andrew Harrison, Aaron Harrison, Dakari Johnson, James Young, Marcus Lee
• 2014: Karl Towns, Trey Lyles, Tyler Ulis, Devin Booker
• 2015: Skal Labissiere, Jamal Murray, Isaiah Briscoe
• 2016: De’Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo, Malik Monk, Wenyen Gabriel, Sacha Kileya-Jones
• 2017: Vanderbilt, Knox, Washington, Diallo, Richards, Green
• 2018: Montgomery, Hagans, Johnson, Quickley

Home Runs (25 out of 42, 60%): Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, Knight, Jones, Lamb, Davis, MKG, Noel, Randle, Aa. Harrison, An. Harrison, Young, Towns, Lyles, Ulis, Booker, Murray, Fox, Adebayo, Monk, Knox, Washington, Johnson, Quickley

Base Hits (9 out of 42, 21%): Teague, Wiltjer, Poythress, Goodwin, Johnson, Briscoe, Diallo, Richards, Hagans

Strike Outs (8 out of 42, 19%): Orton, Lee, Labissiere, Gabriel, Kileya-Jones, Vanderbilt, Green, Montgomery

Calipari absolutely was hitting at an incredible rate in his first 10 years. He was almost certain to have multiple guys in every class who became elite players at UK. Six out of every 10 players he brought in absolutely killed it here. And another 1 out of 5 were productive but just not stars. He only whiffed on a few guys and that didn’t matter because so many other guys were amazing. He could afford to miss on a guy every now and then.

Now let’s take a look at the last 5 classes:

CLASSES OF 2019 THROUGH 2023 (5 SEASONS)

• 2019: Tyrese Maxey, Khalil Whitney, Keion Brooks
• 2020: BJ Boston, Terrence Clarke, Devin Askew
• 2021: Shaedon Sharpe, Tyty Washington, Damion Collins
• 2022: Cason Wallace, Chris Livingston
• 2023: Justin Edwards, Aaron Bradshaw, DJ Wagner, Rob Dillingham

Home Runs (4 out of 15, 27%): Maxey, Washington, Wallace, Dillingham

Base Hits (4 out of 15, 27%): Brooks, Livingston, Edwards, Wagner

Strike Outs (7 out of 15, 46%): Whitney, Boston, Clarke, Askew, Sharpe, Collins, Bradshaw

The percentages are striking. And it comes on both ends of the spectrum. On one side, he just hasn’t brought in as many freshmen who have been dynamite players from the jump as he used to. It should be noted Reed Sheppard wasn’t in the Top 30 in the rankings but obviously was amazing this year. But I think the more alarming note above is the amount of guys, or percentage of guys, who made no impact on this program. Almost half the freshman players Cal has brought in the last 5 years have struggled while they have been here. And then 6 of the 7 were gone after 1 year, with Aaron Bradshaw a potential 7th.

Now look, obviously, the recruiting landscape has changed with the transfer portal. It has become abundantly clear that killing it in the transfer portal is as important, if not more, than killing it with your freshman classes. But we also have to face the reality that John Calipari is still attempting to bring in one of the best freshman classes each and every year. He believes he is bringing in top-notch freshmen who can contribute and star right away. Guys like Justin Edwards, Aaron Bradshaw, and DJ Wagner were brought here to be immediate stars at Kentucky. But the performance on the court just hasn’t matched the expectations for many years now.

Calipari has stated that his teams need to be older. I think that is a true statement. But the reality is he is bringing in 6 or 7 freshmen next year, including 4 ranked in the Top 30 of On3 rankings. For next year’s team to be an elite squad on the floor, some of those freshmen will need to excel. Who Cal brings in from the portal or brings back from last year’s team will still be determined.

But if we continue to hold out hold for a Calipari revival of this program, he needs his bread-and-butter strength to come back. Right now, it’s looking a bit moldy.