What would be the biggest win Kentucky could get in the second half of Mark Stoops' first season? Georgia? Tennessee, because it's a rival? Missouri? My vote would go for this next game at Mississippi State. Get this one and you're likely going to win two in a row, since Alabama State is next up. That would energize the fan base heading into a home game against a possible top 10 foe (Missouri). Kentucky is as healthy as it's been since week one but any chance at getting this upset will no doubt hinge on getting good play at the QB spot. I expect this game will be like the one at South Carolina in that it will be up for grabs in the fourth quarter but it will be up to the Cats to go take it.
= = =
KEY STORYLINES/MATCHUPS
Get better against the run on first down. State loves to pound you with the run game but if Kentucky can improve against the run on first down, they can get the Bulldogs into some third-and-longs. Like UK, the Bulldogs have struggled on third downs, particuarly when throwing (47 % completions and three interceptions).
Dropping in class. That's the term they use in horse racing when a thoroughbred faces lesser competition and the Cats are dropping out of grade one races when it comes to the caliber of defenses they've been facing. In three of the last four games, the team UK faced is currently ranked in the top five nationally in total defense. Kentucky averaged only 9ppg in those matchups but averaged 27 against WKU and South Carolina. The Toppers and Gamecocks are both in the top 24 in total defense while the highest-ranked defensive unit that UK will face in the second half of the season is number 35 (Mississippi State).
Red Zone efficiency. Neither UK nor MSU has been strong when it comes to scoring touchdowns once they get inside the opponents' 20-yard line. Kentucky ranks 108th while State is 70th. I'm guessing both will have multiple red zone opportunities in this game so gaining an edge in that stat could be significant. That's especially true since UK and MSU are tied for the fewest turnovers in the league, with only six each.
= = =
NUMBERS GAME
--Maxwell Smith is completing 74% of his throws on first down but only 44% on third down (and he's just 2/10 when it's third-and-six or less). Last year, he was 69% on third down and 10/15 when he needed six or fewer yards. Once inside the opponents' 40-yard line, Smith is hitting only 44% of his passes (v. 69% last year). Get those numbers to look more like last year and UK's offense can improve in a hurry. And remember that Neal Brown has said accuracy is the key trait for a QB in this offense while arm strength ranks well down the list.
--Miss State has 49 runs of 10-or-more yards, which ranks 21st-best in the nation.
--State ranks 110th nationally with only eight sacks all season and that's a good matchup for UK with Smith as the starter, since he lacks the scrammbling ability of Whitlow.
(stats courtesy of cfbstats.com)
= = =
THIS WEEK IN BIG BLUE HISTORY
In 2003 this week, Derek Abney tied the NCAA record for returning kicks for touchdowns with a punt return TD against Mississippi State. The year before, in Starkville, Abney returned two punts in one game for touchdowns.
--listen to Tom each weekday morning at 9:06am eastern on "The Leach Report" radio network
--check out tomleachky.com for more of Tom's coverage of the Cats and follow Tom on Twitter @tomleachky and and via Facebook for "The Leach Report"
What would be the biggest win Kentucky could get in the second half of Mark Stoops' first season? Georgia? Tennessee, because it's a rival? Missouri? My vote would go for this next game at Mississippi State. Get this one and you're likely going to win two in a row, since Alabama State is next up. That would energize the fan base heading into a home game against a possible top 10 foe (Missouri). Kentucky is as healthy as it's been since week one but any chance at getting this upset will no doubt hinge on getting good play at the QB spot. I expect this game will be like the one at South Carolina in that it will be up for grabs in the fourth quarter but it will be up to the Cats to go take it.
= = =
KEY STORYLINES/MATCHUPS
Get better against the run on first down. State loves to pound you with the run game but if Kentucky can improve against the run on first down, they can get the Bulldogs into some third-and-longs. Like UK, the Bulldogs have struggled on third downs, particuarly when throwing (47 % completions and three interceptions).
Dropping in class. That's the term they use in horse racing when a thoroughbred faces lesser competition and the Cats are dropping out of grade one races when it comes to the caliber of defenses they've been facing. In three of the last four games, the team UK faced is currently ranked in the top five nationally in total defense. Kentucky averaged only 9ppg in those matchups but averaged 27 against WKU and South Carolina. The Toppers and Gamecocks are both in the top 24 in total defense while the highest-ranked defensive unit that UK will face in the second half of the season is number 35 (Mississippi State).
Red Zone efficiency. Neither UK nor MSU has been strong when it comes to scoring touchdowns once they get inside the opponents' 20-yard line. Kentucky ranks 108th while State is 70th. I'm guessing both will have multiple red zone opportunities in this game so gaining an edge in that stat could be significant. That's especially true since UK and MSU are tied for the fewest turnovers in the league, with only six each.
= = =
NUMBERS GAME
--Maxwell Smith is completing 74% of his throws on first down but only 44% on third down (and he's just 2/10 when it's third-and-six or less). Last year, he was 69% on third down and 10/15 when he needed six or fewer yards. Once inside the opponents' 40-yard line, Smith is hitting only 44% of his passes (v. 69% last year). Get those numbers to look more like last year and UK's offense can improve in a hurry. And remember that Neal Brown has said accuracy is the key trait for a QB in this offense while arm strength ranks well down the list.
--Miss State has 49 runs of 10-or-more yards, which ranks 21st-best in the nation.
--State ranks 110th nationally with only eight sacks all season and that's a good matchup for UK with Smith as the starter, since he lacks the scrammbling ability of Whitlow.
(stats courtesy of cfbstats.com)
= = =
THIS WEEK IN BIG BLUE HISTORY
In 2003 this week, Derek Abney tied the NCAA record for returning kicks for touchdowns with a punt return TD against Mississippi State. The year before, in Starkville, Abney returned two punts in one game for touchdowns.
--listen to Tom each weekday morning at 9:06am eastern on "The Leach Report" radio network
--check out tomleachky.com for more of Tom's coverage of the Cats and follow Tom on Twitter @tomleachky and and via Facebook for "The Leach Report"
Discuss This Article
Comments have moved.
Join the conversation and talk about this article and all things Kentucky Sports in the new KSR Message Board.
KSBoard