If you are a religious listener to the radio show, you know that one of Matt Jones' favorite stats is the "Rule of 71." In his eyes, the team that hits that mark first wins almost every single game.
In 2017, I took my first dive into the "rule" to see how accurate it was. What I found was that during the 2016-17 season, the team that scored 71 first in Kentucky games won 34 of the 35. During the 2017 NCAA tournament, 50 of the 52 games proved the rule of 71 to be correct. For more on that, you can click the link below:
https://kentuckysportsradio.com/basketball-2/the-rule-of-71/
In order to see how accurate the rule is, I wanted to dive deeper into seeing how accurate it actually is across John Calipari's tenure as Kentucky head coach.
In the list below, games that neither team reached 71 are not counted.
The results goes as follows:
2009-10 - 33 of 33 games - 100%
2010-11 - 28 of 28 games - 100%
2011-12 - 29 of 30 games - 96.6%
2012-13 - 26 of 26 games - 100%
2013-14 - 28 of 30 games - 93.3%
2014-15 - 22 of 22 games - 100%
2015-16 - 35 of 36 games - 97.2%
2016-17 - 34 of 35 games - 97.1%
2017-18 - 29 of 30 games - 96.6%
2018-19 - 28 of 29 games - 96.5%
2019-20 - 23 of 23 games - 100%
Overall - 315 of 322 games - 97.8%
So what does all of this mean? Well, only seven times in the John Calipari era has the team that scored 71 first lost the game. The list of those games?
- December 2011 - IU wins on buzzer-beater
- February 2014 - Julius Randle's tap in beats LSU
- March 2014 - Cats take down undefeated Wichita State
- January 2016 - Cats lost to Texas A&M on tip-in (Isaac Humphries spike game)
- January 2017 - Cats beat Georgia on Monk's 37 points
- January 2018 - Cats win on Quade Green buzzer-beater
- March 2019 - Tennessee comes back to win SEC Semifinal game
What I find the most interesting is that in most of those games, something crazy had to happen for the end result to come through. Whether it was Indiana's popcorn box moment, the Humphries "spike" or Quade Green winning the game at the buzzer, each one had something different in it.
Overall though, it looks to be almost a given that the team that scores 71 points will win the game as it has happened in
97.8 percent of the potential games.
So the next time it is a close game and both teams are within cracking distance of the 71 point mark, join me in biting your nails and hoping stats come through yet again. You can also join in on the fun and get one of KSR's own "Rule of 71" t-shirts by
clicking here.
@GormleyKSR
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