The Sixth Win: Predicting the Games

After last night's loss to Mizzou, the idea of Kentucky's first bowl berth since 2010 could come this season seems like much more of a toss up.  With three games left on our schedule, against three very worthy opponents, it's hard to say if the Cats will be able to get the sixth win we need to make us bowl eligible.  So, will it be Georgia, Tennessee, or Louisville that gives the Cats the W that they can cash in for a ticket to any bowl. SB Nation's Jason Kirk doesn't have Kentucky projected to any bowl, but he also doesn't have Mississippi State in The Playoffs, so... Based on our past records with the three teams, let's take a look at our probability.  

Georgia

6-2, 2nd in the SEC East

Notable Wins-Clemson, Missouri Notable Losses- Florida, South Carolina After a 38-20 loss against Florida, Georgia will hopefully still be licking their wounds next weekend.  Kick off is set for noon, and the Cats are undefeated at that time of day.  Georgia dropped down to 17 in the AP poll after their lashing last night, and the Bulldogs are also 18th overall in the country for rushing yards.  If the Wildcats bring the defense that they had last night, they'll be able to shut down the high ranking run game.  Ever since Gurley's suspension, the Dawgs have been suffering on the field despite having a pretty deep bench in the RB position.  Good.  We'll need them as shaken up as possible if we want to beat them.  My prediction for this game?  Cats will put up a good effort, but will ultimately fall short of the performance we will need to win, causing me to pull out all my hair.  

Tennessee

4-5, 6th in SEC East

Notable Wins-South Carolina (insert laughing/crying emoji) Notable Losses- Georgia (Final Score 35-32) Oh Tennessee, how we loathe thee.  This is the closest thing to a conference rivalry that Kentucky has, and it would make me so happy to get win six here.  Unfortunately, they'll be coming off their bye week, and will be rested, healthy, and on their high horses from beating Georgia.  Tennessee has won 75 games out of the 108 times they've faced the Wildcats, with Kentucky's last win being in 2011.  Playing Tennessee on the road will not be fun, but I think there's a pretty good chance that we could get the win... IF it's not a night game.  Cross your fingers for something in the middle of the afternoon.  Kentucky hasn't won in Knoxville since 1984, but hey, #WhyNot?  

Louisville

6-3, 4th in ACC Atlantic

Notable Wins-Miami, NC State Notable Losses- Florida State We actually would like "dem" Cards.  We would like to play them and also beat them.  As much as I would really not like for it to get to this point where our last needed win would have to come against Louisville, wouldn't it just be poetic?  It's such a "bottom of the ninth" situation.  Getting the sixth against Louisville would be a true testament as to how far our program has come.  They will more than likely be coming off a loss to Notre Dame, and we'll be kicking off at Louisville, and hopefully not at night.  Bobby Petrino's dirty birds choked hard against Florida State, blowing a 21 point lead in the second half, and I think that they'll do the same against Kentucky.  Look for the Cards to jump out on us early, but after a rousing halftime talk from Stoops, I think Kentucky will end up winning.  Score? 28-21.     Hope you're having a great afternoon!  Looking for somewhere to watch the game?  Wilder and I will be at Tin Roof!  Join us, unless you're creepy. @KSR_allHAYL