Three Kentucky players to watch against Louisville

Thanksgiving Saturday has arrived, and Kentucky finds itself in another swing game. Saturday’s matchup with No. 25 Louisville feels like the most important game of the season for the Big Blue.

There are the obvious rivalry stakes available, but the Cats are a third home loss as a betting favorite away from going 6-6 and ruining what many thought could be a breakthrough season in 2022. No matter how you slice it, this year will be a disappointment but 7-5 looks a lot better than the other record.

In many ways, this year’s edition of the Governor’s Cup feels like a 50/50 matchup as two top-20 defenses are carrying some disappointing offense. For Kentucky, this is a game that the Wildcats should expect to win. To get there, they will need some individual players to shine.

Here are the three players I’ll be watching closely as Kentucky looks to exploit some Louisville weaknesses and negate some obvious strengths.

Kentucky needs Barion Brown to create explosives

As we take a look at the data entering Week 13, former top-100 recruit Barion Brown leads the Kentucky passing offense in targets (63), receptions (41), receiving yards (560), and catches of 25 yards or more (9). Last week against Georgia, Brown looked like a potential superstar going for 145 yards on 10 grabs.

Against Louisville’s pressure defense, Kentucky’s offense will find itself in a ton of one-on-one matchups on the outside. The Wildcats need their most explosive player to make some splash plays.

Kentucky has played two defenses — Missouri and Mississippi State — similar to Louisville. Brown opened the win in CoMo with an explosive completion on a wheel route and had a touchdown on a wide receiver screen called back in the red zone during the game-winning drive in the fourth quarter. Against Mississippi State, Brown made a contested catch in man coverage to set up a red zone possession.

Louisville’s defense is going to get Kentucky behind the chains on Saturday. Big explosive plays could be needed to score. Kentucky will turn to Brown to make some of those splash plays.

Carrington Valentine has a tough matchup

Playing boundary cornerback in Kentucky’s defensive scheme, junior cornerback Carrington Valentine often finds himself up against the top X receivers on the opposing teams. Valentine has won his fair share of battles, but two weeks ago a target monster appeared to get the best of him.

Vanderbilt’s passing game lives and dies with production from No. 1 wideout Will Sheppard. When matched up against Valentine, the junior went for 88 yards on five receptions including the game-winning score from eight yards out. Sheppard created multiple explosive plays and had much to do with Vandy’s 24-21 upset win.

Valentine will face a similar challenge on Saturday when facing Louisville wideout Tyler Hudson.

The Central Arkansas transfer was an All-American performer at the FCS level, and that play has translated to the Power Five level. The 6-foot-2 receiver has average speed but leads the Cardinals in targets (97), receptions (63), and receiving yards (951) by a wide margin. Hudson gets a heavy workload weekly.

Kentucky is typically a zone-heavy team but may have to play more man coverage than usual to be able to match the zone-read game Louisville can use with Malik Cunningham‘s legs. That will give Hudson some one-on-one opportunities.

The Wildcats will need Valentine to win his fair share of battles with Louisville’s top offensive option. If Hudson is limited, it will be very hard for this offense to score.

Ride No. 24

Chris Rodriguez Jr. enters Saturday with 784 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 5.2 yards per rush. The redshirt senior has rushed for over 100 yards in four of the seven games he’s played this season. Rodriguez has again proven to be one of the top tailbacks in the SEC.

In the Governor’s Cup, Kentucky currently owns a three-game winning streak largely due to dominance on the ground. Over the last five meetings against Louisville, Kentucky is averaging 335.2 rushing yards per game on 7.6 yards per rush. During that stretch, the offense is scoring 42.2 points per game.

In each of the last three meetings, Kentucky has set a season-high for rushing yards against Louisville. In the previous two, Rodriguez has rushed for 246 yards on 9.8 yards per rush. The Wildcats will need another big performance from RB1 on Saturday.

Earlier this season, UK faced two similar aggressive defenses that are similar to Louisville. Against Mississippi State and Missouri, Rodriguez rushed for over 100 yards in each outing and averaged 30 carries per game. We should see a similar workload against Louisville.

To negate some of Louisville’s havoc production, Kentucky will need to stay ahead of the chains. The best way to do that is by running straight ahead with Rodriguez. Expect a big workday from the tailback against a rush defense that ranks No. 68 in success rate.

If Rodriguez gets to 25 attempts or more, that likely means Kentucky has game control and is moving the football with efficiency. The Cats need a big day from their star tailback.