Three Plays: Thurby Picks at Churchill Downs

Churchill Downs, Twin Spires — Andy Lyons | Getty Images

Today is a good day to dip your toe into the action at Churchill Downs. This weekend the historic racetrack is rolling out the red carpet with loaded undercards ahead of the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby. Before you make a $150 late Pick 5 ticket, let’s try to build that bankroll on Thurby with a few selections from the 11-race card.

Race 3: 6-Furlong Allowance

The No. 2 High Tone has ran well in 2023, posting a pair of wins and a second-place finish in its last start. The horse closed hard at Indiana Grand, but needed a little more runway in the 5.5-furlong race. High Tone is receiving that today. Steadily improving in each of its last four starts, there’s great value at 15-1 in the morning line odds. Box the No. 2 in your exotics with the favorites, No. 3 Caramel Chip and No. 8 Concrete Glory.

Race 6: 7-Furlong $100k Optional Claiming

Like many horses in this race, No. 4 Double Crown has not won in 2023. That’s because it’s been racing against better competition. A horse with Grade I experience, Double Crown has posted Brisnet speed figures in the 90s in each of its last four starts, including a 97 in a second-place finish in March, the highest number of any in the field. Let’s try to hit a big number with the No. 4 at 10-1 on the morning line.

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Race 10: Opening Verse, $300k, 1-Mile on the Turf

The featured race of the day should be a good one. Even though I typically ride with Brad Cox’s horses in big races, I’m tired of losing money betting on Set Piece. Let’s try to beat him with what will likely end up being the post time favorite. Before No. 3 Annapolis bombed in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, Todd Pletcher’s horse won five of seven starts. This horse will win if it returns to midseason form from last year off the long layoff.

No. 8 Camp Hope is an intriguing play underneath, simply because I watched Heavyweights last week. No. 7 Churchtown might be the best value play in this race, running a 99 in his 2023 debut, a second-place finish at Gulfstream Park. Luis Saez has been hot at Churchill Downs and could stay hot in this race. No. 10 English Bee has wonderful connections with Johnny V and Graham Motion, plus the horse has been running right around the 90s, good enough to pull an upset at 12-1.

Pick: 3-7-10 Exacta Box

Whether you fade or play, always wager responsibly. Happy Derby!