Three Tips in Picking Your Bracket

 

 

If you’re anything like me, you’ve already filled out your NCAA tournament bracket. Or two. Or three. Or five. Whatever. Point is, this is the most glorious time of the year and filling out an NCAA tournament bracket, in my opinion, is the greatest American pastime.

 

So this year don’t let Dean from human resources who thinks UK means Kansas win your bracket pool. Take the tournament by storm this year and win it by following these three things:

 

1. Don’t be fooled by seeds: A common misconception is that the selection committee bases their seeding on team strength. They don’t, they seed based on resume. For example, I hear everyone pouting about how Louisville is drastically underseeded, but if you actually look at their resume it really doesn’t warrant anything better than a four seed. Now, if the committee  were basing it on team strength, then sure, pout away as Louisville is probably one of the four best teams in the country (almost threw up typing that).  When picking teams in the tournament, pick them based on team strength and not based on seeds. So what “upsets” am I telling you to pick? Take Tennessee/Iowa over UMass (either will be a Vegas favorite), take Harvard over Cincinnati (UC will be a small Vegas favorite) and take NC State/Xavier over St. Louis (St. Louis will be a small favorite, but they are trending down).

 

2. Love thy coaches: I generally hate most media narratives, but this is one that I buy. Coaching experience and success in the NCAA tournament matters. What coaches have that experience and success? Tom Izzo, Billy Donovan, Coach K, Coach Cal and Rick Pitino are probably your five best bets. Other coaches (Jay Wright, Shaka Smart and Thad Matta) have also had some success coaching in the tournament, but they aren’t nearly as experienced as the other five. On the flip side, there are also some coaches that have terrible track records in the NCAA tournament. Bo Ryan hasn’t gotten past the Sweet 16 in nearly 10 years, and Steve Alford has never won more than one game in the big dance.

 

3. Be different, but don’t be crazy: If you pick a bracket that has all “chalk”, you probably won’t be successful in your bracket pool for two reasons: 1) There are going to be some upsets, and 2) There’s going to be other people who go chalk as well so even if the tournament is void of upsets, you still probably won’t win. The key to success in the 1st/2nd rounds (sorry, not calling them 2nd/3rd) is picking the correct upsets. After that, though, it’s about being smart and less bold with your picks and choosing the *best* teams going forward. Listen to the nerds and not the jocks when it comes to picking your final four and make KenPom your best friend.

 

@BWardKSR