Vegas Isn't As Good As You Think (BTI's Rants and Ramblings)

Now that sports gambling is legal in Kentucky, a lot more people are paying a lot more attention to the spreads of Kentucky games. And certainly, a lot of people are learning that it is very difficult to make money in that business. You should do it for entertainment purposes only. But I am also seeing a common misperception that I intend to knock down right here and now: Las Vegas oddsmakers are not the geniuses that you think they are.

Every time a final score finishes somewhere 1-3 points close to the spread, everybody acts befuddled about how Vegas is so good at what they do. How did they know how close the game would be? But this is one of those circumstances where the memorable things you remember and the unmemorable you forget. Meaning when they are way off on the spread, you don’t remember it and thus your perception of their skills is misguided.

THIS SEASON’S SPREADS HAVE NOT BEEN GOOD

New Mexico State (-15): Won by 40
Texas A&M Commerce (-29): Won by 20
Kansas (+7): Lost by 5
Stonehill (-37.5): Won by 34
St. Josephs (-14.5): Won by 8
Marshall (-18.5): Won by 36
Miami (-6.5): Won by 22
UNC-Wilmington (-18.5): Lost by 7

In just this season’s eight games, the final spread finished at least 10 points off in HALF of the games, including by 25 or more points wrong TWICE. So far this year, they have been wildly wrong 25% of the time and pretty badly off 50%. The only games where the final score was within 3 points of the spread were Kansas (2 points) and Stonehill (2.5 points). So Vegas oddsmakers are just as likely, at least this season, to be more than 25 points off as they are to be within 3 points. Tell me why they are so great again? What makes gambling hard is to know which side of the line they are going to be so off on though.

VEGAS IS GETTING WORSE EVERY YEAR

When examining past years, I also found an interesting trend. Vegas has consistently been getting worse and worse at predicting UK games for the last 5 years. They are both declining in the percentage of games they get within 10 points, as well as the average number of points they are off per game:

2024: 4 out of 8 games (Average points off: 11.7 points)
2023: 17 out of 34 games (Average points off: 10.5 points)
2022: 11 out of 34 games (Average points off: 9.2 points)
2021: 9 out of 25 games (Average points off: 8.9 points)
2020: 8 out of 31 games (Average points off: 6.8 points)

How can you explain it? Well, the reality is that Vegas doesn’t HAVE to get the spreads right. That is not their game. Their game is to try and get as much of an equal split on the teams playing in a game so that they are guaranteed a profit based on the cut (aka “juice”) they take off the top. So Vegas doesn’t care if they miss a spread by 25 points. As the money on the losing side equals the money on the winning side.

Take UNC-Wilmington for instance. Vegas badly misjudged that game. But who cares so long as enough money came in on UK. Whether or not UK missed the spread by 1 point or 31 points, it’s all money in the Vegas pockets. But it is interesting they have been so poor in predicting the outcome of UK’s games so far and have been getting worse year over year for a while now.

At this point in the season, there is some value in keeping an eye on UK games. Gambling is always nice when you pick the winning side and your bet is comfortably a win in the 2nd half. A lot of UK games have been that this season.