Vote Big O: Oscar Tshiebwe's POY Case in Context

National Player of the Year favorites don’t grow on trees — nor are they machines built in a lab. But with the season Oscar Tshiebwe‘s putting together in his first year at Kentucky, you’d be forgiven for thinking either.

Saturday’s matchup against Kansas — and fellow POY top contender Ochai Agbaji — was the latest test for the big man, and he passed it with flying colors.

Now, with six weeks left until Selection Sunday, it’s time we added some context to a familiar topic: what does Tshiebwe need to do to take home the sport’s top honor?

Leading the Pack

Tshiebwe has been entrenched in the national POY discussion for several months now, and for good reason. He’s leading the nation in rebounding at 15.1 boards per game, 1.5 RPG higher than the next closest player. He also leads Kentucky in points (16.3), blocks (1.5) and steals (1.7) per game, no small feat on a roster full of stars. On KenPom, he’s head and shoulders above the pack in both offensive and defensive rebounding, and rates third in the country in overall offense (min. 20% of possessions used).

More importantly, Tshiebwe ranks among the best in just about every POY metric out there. He’s second only to Iowa’s Keegan Murray in Bart Torvik’s POY formula, third on EvanMiya.com, and first by a sizable margin on KenPom:

Oscar Tshiebwe is far and away leading the KenPom Player of the Year standings. The gap to #2 is bigger than the gap between #2 and #10. pic.twitter.com/JRQgiFafD6

— Sean Vinsel (@HoopsInsight) January 30, 2022

In the media, the Tshiebwe train is gaining steam with each passing week. He placed second behind Wisconsin’s Johnny Davis in The Athletic’s staff poll this week, first in Andy Katz’s rankings for Fox Sports, and second in Bleacher Report’s latest POY rankings. And keep in mind, these were all published before the head-to-head showdown with Agbaji.

But if you’ve been watching Tshiebwe play all season, then you surely don’t need any more convincing. The real question is, what would it mean to win?

The Weight of History

Even at a perennial title contender like Kentucky, the singular greatness required to rise above the crop in college basketball is exceedingly rare. In the 50+ year history of the NCAA’s “Big 3” POY awards — Wooden, Naismith and AP — only one name from the bluegrass has graced the top spot in any of them, let alone all three: Anthony Davis.

Tshiebwe also has another historical factor working against him: his transfer status. Based on John Gasaway’s research (and a quick thumb through of the internet’s record books), no mid- or post-season transfer in men’s college basketball has ever won a major Player of the Year award.

The transfer market today is more lucrative than ever before, but that’s still crazy to think about! Of course, there are a few caveats, such as Larry Bird, who infamously enrolled at Indiana before transferring to Indiana State without playing a game in Bloomington; and UNLV star Larry Johnson, who won the Naismith and Wooden Award trophies in 1991 after transferring from Odessa Junior College. But among players who transferred from four-year DI colleges, it looks like Tshiebwe would be the first.

Following Luka Garza‘s POY sweep in 2021, Tshiewbe winning would also mark the first time two centers have taken home the honor in back-to-back years since Marcus Camby and Tim Duncan in 1996-’97. “Big O” has a chance to make it a repeat feat.

Closing the Deal

With all this in mind, what has to happen between now and March for Tshiebwe to make that kind of history? For starters, winning would certainly help. If Kentucky can build on their current momentum and enter the NCAA Tournament as the top-eightish team in the country that we know they are, Tshiebwe should be in great position to jockey for the crown down the stretch.

Of course, half the battle of these awards is publicity. While metrics like KenPom carry much more weight in the media world than they used to, “the eye test” still reigns supreme — so the more eyes watching, the better.

Needless to say, playing at UK should work in his favor there. With a schedule full of marquee matchups in the SEC, the ‘Cats should be playing on national TV every weekend from here on out. Look at this loaded Saturday schedule, which doesn’t even include midweek matchups with #18 Tennessee and #19 LSU:

There’s no question that Tshiebwe will get all the chances he needs to prove himself to the voting audience. The ball is in his court to become UK’s first National Player of the Year since Anthony Davis — all he has to do is reach up and grab it.