What are the pros and cons of all of Jalen Duren's top choices?

by:Aaron Torres•06/30/21

(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

It’s been a busy week in Lexington, Kentucky, where – unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last few weeks – you know that John Calipari and his coaching staff have been hosting the No. 1 high school basketball player in America, Jalen Duren.

And looking ahead, it’s going to be a busy few months for Duren himself. As was reported earlier this week by Joe Tipton, Duren will be cutting his list of choices (likely pro and college) to five on Friday, and Duren himself told KSR’s Jack Pilgrim that he plans on making a final decision by the end of the summer. All signs point towards Duren eventually reclassifying into the class of 2021, meaning he will be playing somewhere other than in high school this coming fall (either professionally or in college).

With Duren’s first three – and maybe only three – visits done, and a final five coming on Friday, it’s worth looking at all of Duren’s different options and what they could potentially offer the 6’11 forward. While most assume that if he chooses college it would be Kentucky, I can tell you definitively that both Miami and Memphis believe they have strong pitches as well.

So let’s look at the benefits and drawbacks of what Duren’s top choices can deliver.

Miami Hurricanes

Pros:

I actually want to start with Miami. Because while most seem to assume that if Duren goes college it will be at Kentucky, again, Miami believes they have as good a shot as any to land the potential No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft.

Which leads to the next logical question: What is the actual recruiting pitch for a program coming off a 10-17 season? Especially when they’re competing against two much more established and bigger brands, including maybe the single biggest brand in college basketball (Kentucky)?

For Miami, it’s all about relationships. As has been discussed at length the last few weeks, Miami assistant DJ Irving has ties to both Philadelphia and Duren specifically. Irving went to the same high school as the one Duren originally attended (Roman Catholic) and also coached for Team Final, Duren’s AAU team. The fact that the Hurricanes’ best projected returnee Isaiah Wong is also from Philadelphia doesn’t hurt either (Wong is currently testing the draft waters, but is expected to eventually announce his return).

Also, there was another piece of news that came out Tuesday from Miami that could have a small role on Duren’s recruitment. It doesn’t qualify as “significant” but it isn’t insignificant either. That news was that in addition to Wong’s expected return, the team’s second best player (Kameron McGusty, who averaged 13 points per game last season) pulled his name out of the NBA Draft as well. When you couple him with Wong (17 points per contest) and transfer Charlie Moore (who averaged 14 points and four assists at DePaul last year) the Hurricanes actually have a team that should be pretty decent next season.

But the one gaping hole they have is down low, where starting power forward and leading rebounder Nysier Brooks elected to transfer this off-season. Because of it, there is a natural spot for Duren to slide into and basically play and produce as much as he wants. At Miami, it isn’t inconceivable to see him playing 35+ minutes a night, and if he’s playing 35+ minutes a night, you’d think that would naturally lead to All-ACC type numbers. The fact that he’d playing in arguably the best basketball conference in America wouldn’t hurt. Nor would it hurt that Miami believes – and is telling him – that he’d be the missing piece on a team that should and likely would make a push towards an NCAA Tournament berth with him on the roster. Looking at the rest of the ACC, there’s no reason the Hurricanes can’t be a top three or four team in the league next year with Duren.

And for those saying, “Yeah, but it’s Miami” well, you have a valid point. But it’s worth noting that Anthony Edwards went to Georgia, Markelle Fultz went to Washington, Ben Simmons went to LSU and Cade Cunningham went to Oklahoma State. Other than Cunningham, all those teams stunk. And it didn’t impact the player’s draft stock or NBA future one bit.

Cons:

The biggest con for Miami – and Miami fans, please understand this is no disrespect towards your squad – but it’s well, that we’re talking about Miami basketball here. In the pantheon of “big-time” college basketball brands, it’s somewhere in between Wichita State and Stanford. Not exactly riveting, or needle moving on the national scale.

And the bigger issue is this: Miami is selling the best-case scenario of “come be the missing piece.” But what Kentucky and Memphis should be asking is, what happens if things don’t go to plan? While Cunningham is the primary example of how an elite talent can elevate an entire program, the reality is that recent college hoops history is littered with many more elite high school players that choose the “off the beaten path school” and largely get forgotten once the season starts, especially if their team struggles. Again, just ask Anthony Edwards. Or Josh Christopher. Or Makur Maker. Or Markelle Fultz or Ben Simmons. It might not impact draft stock for a player as talented as Duren, but impact brand appeal.

Also, Duren told KSR’s Jack Pilgrim that it is really about what college “will develop him best.” And while it’s easy to think that the day-in, day-out grind of the ACC will help, how much better will he get practicing every day against inferior competition?

These are all things Duren will need to consider.

Kentucky Wildcats

Pros:

Ah, Kentucky. The bluest of blue bloods, and a place where Duren spent the last few days hanging out. And while there are no official quotes from Duren on what the experience was like, you’d have to imagine that seeing Kentucky basketball in all its glory – from practices, to summer camps, to pool parties at John Calipari’s house – couldn’t have hurt the Wildcats’ pitch.

And on paper, the Wildcats pitch is pretty darn strong.

For one, well, it’s Kentucky. Take all the not nice things I said a minute ago Miami basketball, go in the exact opposite direction and that’s basically what Kentucky basketball offers. It’s not only the biggest stage in college basketball, but – if you haven’t heard – John Calipari also has a pretty solid track record of producing pros at this point. While you’re not quite sure what you’re going to get at Miami, Kentucky speaks for itself. It’s a place where future NBA All-Stars and three different No. 1 overall picks honed their craft for a year, before becoming wildly rich as professionals.

Again, Duren claims that his college choice will be all about development and the best place he can grow as a basketball player. And it’s hard to think of a better place than Kentucky.

Beyond that, well, if you’re looking to build a brand to take with you to the NBA, it isn’t a terrible place either. Again, you can argue that a player already has a brand once they arrive in college, but there is also no doubt that a school the caliber of Kentucky or a true blue blood can only enhance it. Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Lonzo Ball, John Wall, Jalen Suggs, whoever, were all well known in basketball circles before they got to college. They were household names by the time they left, thanks to the stage that college provided. Miami, Memphis, the G-League and NBL simply can’t compete with Kentucky, where exhibitions and practices are broadcast, and the biggest games are simply bigger than everyone else’s. Next year Kentucky’s schedule includes an opener against Duke, trips to Kansas and Michigan, a home game with Louisville, a neutral court tilt likely against North Carolina, and oh, 18 games in the SEC.

It isn’t an exaggeration to say they will be on national television more from November to March than all but a few NBA teams. And certainly more than virtually any other college program in America.

Speaking of “branding” as has been discussed at length in a lot of places, “Name, Image, Likeness” rules will change at midnight this evening. And as John Calipari has said, there is no college basketball program in America better positioned to take care of its athletes than Kentucky. As the kids say, “no lies have been told” on that one.

And finally, there is just, well, the actual basketball stuff. Duren again claims he wants to be challenged, and it’s hard to image him being challenged anywhere more (unless he plays in a professional league like in Australia) than at Kentucky. He’d be practicing every day against a former McDonald’s All-American and 21-year-old grown man in Oscar Tshiebwe, not to mention a potential NBA player in Keion Brooks. Jacob Toppin, Lance Ware and Daimion Collins aren’t too shabby either. And he’d be squaring off against future NBA players when the Wildcats take on the Duke’s, Tennessee’s, Kansas’s and North Carolina’s of the world.

Oh, and one more thing: While he might be the missing piece for an NCAA Tournament team at Miami, he’d be the missing piece for a potential national title contender at Kentucky.

Can’t lie, that’s a hell of a recruiting pitch.

Cons: Quick question for you: How many of you are fans of the old show “How I Met Your Mother?”

Anyone?

Hello?

This thing on?

The reason I bring it up is because there’s a great episode called “The Rabbit or the Duck.” Essentially the entire story arc is built around the idea how two people can look at one picture, and see two different things. Like this picture – is it a rabbit or a duck? Look closely and you can see both.

I bring all this up to say that Duren’s decision is kind of the same: What Kentucky’s strongest selling point, is also its weakest.

It’s the depth they have along the frontline.

The glass is half full Kentucky fan would say, “What better way to get better than by competing against elite big guys every day in practice.” And they wouldn’t be wrong. But with that, it also means that there is more depth up front, more mouths to feed, and fewer minutes and stats to be had. Know how I mentioned up top that Duren would be looking at 35+ minutes per game at Miami next season? The last time Kentucky had a player play 35+ minutes was the 2015-2016 season when both Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray topped that mark. Since then, De’Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Keldon Johnson, Immanuel Quickley, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Maxey and PJ Washington are among the players who’ve gone through the program. None have played 35 minutes a game.

Now of course ultimately it goes without saying that of course, if Duren comes to Kentucky, he would be a Day 1 starter and you find a way to get him on the court. But there’s no doubt that other places would allow him more playing time, and a chance to pick up better stats.

Another thought that I’ve had as well. Duren told Pilgrim that he isn’t motivated by money, which could be seen as a good sign that maybe the pro routes (the G-League and NBL) aren’t all that appealing to him.

But if that’s the case, doesn’t it also mean that making a crap ton of money off NIL isn’t as important to him as it might be for other players and families as well?

It’s something worth thinking about.

Memphis 

Pros:

Even before Penny Hardaway’s flirtation with the NBA in the last few weeks, my understanding was that Memphis was behind Miami and Kentucky in the recruitment process. It’s not to say that Memphis can’t make a strong push now that we know Penny is coming back. But at least as of a few days ago, my understanding was that it was the third of three college options.

In terms of their appeal, well, it’s pretty similar to Kentucky’s. If Duren really is focused solely on development in his one season in college basketball, it doesn’t feel like an awful idea to go play for a former NBA All-Star in Memphis. While Hardaway hasn’t quite lived up to his own self-created hype in his three seasons at Memphis, he did build himself into an NBA All-Star and knows what it takes to get other guys there as well. The fact that he hired one of the greatest minds in the history of basketball to be on his staff (Larry Brown) this week certainly can’t hurt from the developmental standpoint either. Fellow assistant Cody Toppert is another well-respected, former NBA assistant, currently on Memphis’ staff.

It’s also worth  mentioning that it feels like there will be plentiful Name, Image, Likeness opportunities at Memphis as well. While it’s impossible to know what exactly the numbers will look like (we should have a better idea in the coming days), Memphis basketball is like a smaller scale Kentucky in terms of local interest and opportunities that could be provided.

You’d have to think that a star player at Memphis could make some nice side cash once the rules go into effect.

Cons:

I mean, they kind of go without saying, right?

First of all, a little bit like Kentucky, Memphis already has a deep, talented team next season. While there is no player with Duren’s exact skill-set (as a true, low post four), the Tigers do have a ton of bodies up front. Former Kentucky recruit DeAndre Williams is a 6’9 wing who was arguably the team’s best player last year, Chandler Lawson is 6’8 and just transferred in from Oregon and Earl Timberlake is a former Top 40 recruit who just transferred in (ironically) from Miami. Malcolm Dandridge is a 6’9 center entering his third year in the program. And when you add in a couple freshmen, well, let’s just say that’s a lot of big bodies on the roster.

(It’s also worth noting that in an interesting twist, former Top 10 prospect Moussa Cisse is still listed on the Tigers’ 2021-2022 roster. It was believed that Cisse would transfer, so that’s something interesting worth keeping an eye on).

Finally, there is Penny Hardaway himself. Look, every time anyone says anything negative about Penny, Memphis fans go on the defensive. But most of the criticism sent Penny’s way comes directly from things he said himself. He was the guy who said Memphis wanted “all the smoke” and also the guy who said he expected to win a national championship two seasons ago. While you can say that Memphis has had bad luck with injuries (they have) and that they were probably one of the 68 best teams by the end of last season (they should’ve beaten Houston at least once, maybe twice in the final week last season, which may have pushed them into the tournament) the reality remains, the Hardaway era has to be considered a disappointment so far. And while Memphis fans don’t want to hear it, there have been issues off the floor as well, where at least two key players elected to transfer this off-season (Boogie Ellis and DJ Jeffries), a third might be on the way out (Cisse) and there has been a ton of coaching turnover as well.

I’m not saying Duren couldn’t or wouldn’t thrive there. But even Miami can claim they were in an NCAA Tournament as recently as 2018 under its current head coach.

Memphis is still looking for its first bid under Hardaway.

The G-League and NBL:

Pros:

Look at this point, these professional pathways are what they are: A chance for young players to earn money without going to school. Players also aren’t under the jurisdiction of the NCAA, meaning that practice time and overall basketball work can’t be capped.

Oh, and the pay is pretty nice too.

So, if you’re 18-years-old, and have no interest in going to school, professional pathways are a great way to spend a year, and make some real cash.

Cons: 

At this point, we also know the negatives of the professional pathways as well. And while the concept of “hey, I get paid a high six or seven figures to focus on basketball” it’s not as though signing with the G-League or NBL is a yellow brick road to the NBA with no potholes along the way.

Take RJ Hampton, who came out of high school as a pretty consensus Top 10 pick in the high school class of 2020. Since some will argue “that’s not true” well, here is one mock draft from the summer of 2019 that had him going No. 3 overall. This one had him going No. 5. Well, after one up-and-down year in Australia, he ended up going No. 24 overall. There’s obviously no guarantee that had he played college basketball he would’ve ended up a Top 10 pick, but it’s also not unfair to say that the decision to go to Australia may have cost him millions of dollars.

Then there is the G-League, which saw two pretty consensus Top 20 prospects (Daishen Nix and Isaiah Todd) get exposed playing day-in and day-out against professionals (something that, if you listen to the Aaron Torres Podcast, I told you would from the moment those two guys made the decision to go pro). Again, it’s impossible to know, but had both gone to college, they would have played at really successful programs this season (UCLA and Michigan respectively) and it’s hard to imagine they would’ve fallen quite so far down draft boards. Each is projected as second round picks at best right now, and potentially could go undrafted. I’m not here to criticize either’s decision, but I do wonder if either (or the adults who helped them make the decision) regret taking the money up front, since it will clearly cost them millions on the back end.

And as you can see from the tweet above from KSR’s Matt Jones, even Jalen Green – a projected Top 5 pick – believes that choosing a professional path over college may have cost him draft positioning. And potentially a lot of money.

Speaking of the money, that’s the single biggest X-factor we just simply don’t know about at this point.

With Name, Image, Likeness rules no in effect, how much will players be able to legally make, above board, this year playing college basketball?

And will that mitigate the professional pathway’s strongest selling points?

In conclusion:

At this point, it’s impossible to speculate too much on what Jalen Duren’s decision will ultimately be. Because to be honest, I don’t think even Jalen Duren or his closest confidants know at this point.

What I would say however is this: In recent weeks it seems as though choosing a college over a professional pathway is Duren’s preferred option. Is that 1,000 percent set in stone? I don’t know. But assuming Duren does go to college, there are a number of different variables he will have to consider.

The family atmosphere of Miami vs. the unknown?

And being the missing piece on a potential NCAA Tournament team vs. a true, national championship contender.

Those are just some of the variables, but variables that a lot of people will be monitoring closely in the coming weeks.

 

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