What ESPN's FPI thinks of Kentucky after Week 1 win over Toledo

With Week 1 action carrying over into Sunday and Monday, we won’t have updated national polls until later in the week. Regardless, Kentucky’s 24-16 win over Toledo on Saturday wasn’t going to suddenly bump the Wildcats into a top 25 ranking.

But what does ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) think of Mark Stoops‘ squad after their first game of the 2025 season? Not enough to move the needle in either direction, apparently.

Kentucky was one of the few top 100 teams in the FPI that stayed in the exact same spot after Saturday’s win. The Wildcats remain at 43rd in the country with a projected win-loss record of 5-7. The FPI gives UK a 33.2 percent chance of reaching the six-win threshold. The model still has 0.0 percent faith in the ‘Cats winning the SEC or making the national championship game, but it does give them a 1.9 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff.

Which brings up the age-old question: so you’re telling me there’s a chance?

Meanwhile, Toledo dropped three spots in the FPI to 83rd following the loss to Kentucky. Looking ahead to next week’s opponent, Ole Miss jumped up six spots to 4th in the country behind only Texas, Georgia, and Ohio State, respectively. The Rebels rolled Georgia State 63-7 in their season-opener on Saturday. Ole Miss comes to Kroger Field next Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

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