What Kentucky Must Do To Beat Mississippi State

The Kentucky Wildcats are coming off a bye week following its lone loss of the season to top-ranked Georgia in Athens. Mark Stoops’ team had a week to heal up, rest up, and clean up execution prior to traveling to Starkville to take on Mississippi State. The cowbells will be raucously ringing in Davis Wade Stadium. MSU is set to honor its national championship baseball team during homecoming and alumni weekend festivities. 

No. 12 Kentucky will face a nasty MSU run defense and the SEC’s top passing attack in a stadium that has been unfriendly to the Wildcats. Mark Stoops is winless in four tries in Starkville. The UK head coach has broken down barriers during his tenure in Lexington. Winning at Starkville could be next. Here’s what Kentucky will need to do in order to extend its record to 7-1.

Offense

Quarterback Will Levis played his best football of the season in the Cat’s last two outings against LSU and Georgia. He’ll need to continue his rise and progression against the SEC’s fourth-ranked defense. The Bulldogs are stout against the run after giving up just 93 yards per game. That number is somewhat misleading given that multiple opponents are not considered to be run-heavy teams. 

Georgia limited Chris Rodriguez Jr. and company to a season-low 51 rush yards. That number will need to see a significant increase. Receiver Josh Ali’s availability is key. Let’s take a deeper dive into what the UK offense has to do in order to beat Mississippi State. 

Re-establish the run

Mississippi State is the SEC’s third-ranked defense against the run. The Bulldogs have given up just four rushing touchdowns and allowed 93 yards per game. Coordinator Zach Arnett’s 3-3-5 stack gave UK fits a year ago. The Wildcats mustered just 157 total yards in its 24-2 victory. UK has to rediscover its rushing attack on Saturday night. 

Chris Rodriguez Jr. was held to a career-low 7 yards against the vaunted Georgia defense. The All-SEC running back still leads the conference by averaging 110 yards per contest. Quarterback Will Levis will have opportunities to extend plays on the ground against MSU’s aggressive nature. 

UK is averaging 190 rush yards per game. In order to win, the Cats must run for more than 175. The matchup to watch is the Big Blue Wall against an imposing MSU front seven. 

Help Wan’Dale

Wan’Dale Robinson has recorded 49 catches for 566 yards and five touchdowns in 2021. He’s accounted for 40% of all Wildcat receptions. His running mate Josh Ali has missed the Cats previous two games but still ranks second on the team with 17 receptions. Ali is reportedly back for Saturday. His presence will greatly benefit the Wildcat’s passing offense and could lessen Miss State’s likelihood to bracket cover Robinson. 

Coordinator Liam Coen has creatively schemed open pass catchers at multiple positions. Wildcat tight ends have accounted for 24 catches, or 20% of all receptions while running backs have snagged 17 passes. Non-Robinson receivers total 33 catches and account for 27% of the team’s receptions. UK desperately requires additional production from the receiver position. MSU allows 234 pass yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks average 7.6 yards per completion. That’s a whole lot of numbers to say that non-Robinson pass-catchers will need to step up for the Cats to secure a victory. Having Ali back in the lineup is a boost. 

Punch back

MSU’s defense involves a great deal of movement in order to create false reads and penetration. It also will direct pressure along various gaps which leads to runs stuffed for no gain or loss of yards. That’s ok. Football happens and at times the defense wins. UK must stick to the run game and count on some runs popping for explosives.

Defense

The Kentucky defense experienced an uncharacteristic performance against Georgia. The Dawgs reeled off explosive plays on the ground and in the air on its way to average 9 yards per play. Mississippi State is not an explosive offense and relies on a short-medium passing attack that averages 5.5 yards per play. Quarterback Will Rogers completes 73% of his passes and leads the SEC with 2546 yards and 18 touchdowns. Rogers has thrown 397 passes which is the most in the country. UK’s pass defense and open field tackling will be tested against MSU’s dink and dunk philosophy. Here’s what the Cats need to do on Saturday night. 

Slow the “Run”  

Mike Leach focuses on dispersing the football to athletes in space and is reliant upon yards after the catch. This especially applies to MSU’s emphasis on throwing the football to its running backs which is the Air Raid’s version of an extended handoff. Running backs Jo’quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson have combined for 87 receptions in 2021. Efficiently tackling that duo is vital. The goal here is to limit Marks and Johnson to less than 65-combined receiving yards.   

Break up passes

Kentucky cornerbacks will face a multitude of Mississippi State receivers that rotate on a regular basis. Pass breakups at the pinnacle of routes will be necessary to slow the Bulldog’s aerial attack. Cedrick Dort, Quandre Mosely, and Carrington Valentine will at times be on an island based off splits and formations. The trio will need to defend at a high level in order to win the football game. UK cornerbacks have recorded three pass breakups and zero interceptions. Kentucky will need one INT and three PBU’s from the cornerback position. 

UK’s defensive strength lies within its third level. Safeties Yusuf Corker and Ty Ajian will supply ample backing. Nickel Davonte Robinson has been an asset in the flat as well as an immediate run stopper. But, Wildcat corners will be tested on Saturday. How they answer the bell will be telling. 

Make Rogers uncomfortable

Opposing defenses have been successful against the Air Raid by dropping eight defenders into coverage and rushing three. The Bulldogs rank 11th in the SEC after allowing twenty quarterback sacks. The UK defensive front must pressure Will Rogers in the pocket. Defensive end Josh Paschal will be matched up against sophomore left tackle Charles Cross for a one-on-one tussle that will be fun to watch. UK will require pass rush production from its nose and defensive tackles as well as situational blitzes from linebackers and defensive backs. The Cats have to record three quarterback sacks in order to consistently alter the Bulldog’s pocket. 

Bend but don’t break

MSU’s passing game will roll up yards between the twenty’s. Kentucky’s defense will need to tighten when the Bulldogs enter the Red Zone. Mississippi State has scored 18 touchdowns in 28 trips inside the twenty. Things get dicey for its pass-first offense when the field shrinks. UK has bent but not broken on multiple occasions. Saturday will test that philosophy. 

Special Teams

Bye week emphasis has been on the field goal and PAT team. Georgia blocked one of each which pushed the season total to four blocked kicks. That can’t happen in Starkville. 

Block and tackle

SEC road games are won by playing clean on special teams and posting an advantage in the turnover margin. The Cats need to clean up its field goal/PAT team after getting a couple blocked at Georgia. 

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What Does All This Mean? 

Mississippi State offers a unique challenge similar to playing against a service academy. While the system is the Air Raid not the wishbone, preparing for an offense that is seen once on the schedule is not easy to simulate in practice. The Bulldog’s 3-3-5 stack is also peculiar and presents its own headaches. 

Kentucky is the better football team. Will the Cats win and move to 7-1? We’ll see. The sheer oddness that defines Mississippi State presents a daunting encounter. That offense, defense, cowbells, history of losses in Davis Wade, and more external factors manufacture an uneasiness about Saturday night. 

Perhaps, the victor will simply be the team that wins the turnover margin and doesn’t implode in the third phase? Maybe the first team to 30 points wins? Regardless of the outcome, Saturday night will be a game of contrasts. Should be a good one in Starkville.