When Koby Brea isn't shooting well, Kentucky struggles to win

Koby Brea has turned into an X-Factor for this Kentucky team. When the fifth-year Dayton transfer is playing well, it typically results in wins. But when he isn’t, more often than not, the outcome doesn’t favor the Wildcats.

Through 25 games this season, six as a starter, Brea is averaging 10.5 points and 3.1 rebounds per outing while shooting 45.7 percent from the field and 44.1 percent from deep. Those numbers began to slip once conference play began though: 9.0 points and 2.8 rebounds per outing (12 games played) while shooting 40.0 percent from the field and 37.9 percent from deep. For a guy who’s shot 43.6 percent from beyond the arc across his five-year college career, anything under the 40 percent three-point clip is shocking.

But let’s take a deeper look at some of the numbers. Brea has produced far more efficiently in Kentucky’s wins than in losses. The ‘Cats have not lost a game this season (9-0) when Brea hits at least three three-pointers. Drop the criteria to two made triples and UK is still 14-4. They’re 3-4 when he’s under that mark.

• Brea in 17 Kentucky wins: 11.9 PPG and 3.3 RPG | 77-141 FG (54.6%), 52-102 3PT (51%)
• Brea in 8 Kentucky losses: 6.2 PPG and 2.8 RPG | 17-58 FG (29.3%), 11-41 (26.8%)

Brea is almost quite literally playing twice as well in Kentucky’s wins than he does in losses. The shooting discrepancy compared to losses is equally as significant when looking at games specifically played in the Southeastern Conference. He’s been massive in victories over Florida (23 points), South Carolina (10 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds), and on the road against Tennessee (18 points). But Brea had just four points in the loss to Texas, five in the loss to Arkansas, and three in the loss to Vanderbilt.

• Brea in 6 Kentucky SEC wins: 11.7 PPG and 2.3 RPG | 23-44 FG (52.3%), 17-34 3PT (50%)
• Brea in 6 Kentucky SEC losses: 6.3 PPG and 3.2 RPG | 13-46 FG (28.2%), 8-32 3PT (25%)

Brea’s struggles in losses this season were highlighted in Saturday’s road defeat to the unranked Longhorns. Granted, Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson missed that game due to injury, which put more on Brea’s plate. However, he did not show up offensively with just four points (all coming off free throws) on 0-6 shooting (0-4 3PT). It marked his first time as a Wildcat he failed to hit a single three-pointer and the first time in 39 games. Even his defense, which had been on the upswing in recent games, was not up to par.

It’s obviously not as straightforward as more Brea makes = more Kentucky wins, but it’s certainly looking like one of the top keys to the Wildcats’ success.