While Visions of Cupcakes Danced In Their Heads
In a few days, most of us will be surrounded by family and gorging ourselves on meats and pie. (Be sure to thank those who can't make it home.) Indubitably you'll have an aunt or cousin or some other prissy member of your family that raises a big stink about you eating so much. They'll say things like, "you're blowing your diet" or "you're pigging out" or "that's not really good for your cholesterol levels" or "I am really concerned that you ate the whole Red Velvet Cake in two sittings."
Look, if Granny wanted you to have Red Velvet Cake, she would have made two.
In the basketball world, the national powers seemingly consume a ton of bad food -- the proverbial cupcakes. The trick is to consume little teams that go on and win big elsewhere, which essentially improves your rating throughout the year. Its like eating a brownie that burns 3000 calories after you digest it.
So how is the current AP Top 3 fairing with their selections? Let's take a look at the kenpom.com ratings and projected team records and find out. Hint: Good cupcakes -- mid-majors projected to show strongly and contend for their conference -- are bolded:
| Curr. Record | Proj. Record (Conf.) | |
|---|---|---|
| Hofstra | 7-5 | 17-13 (10-8) |
| Memphis | 7-2 | 24-7 (12-4) |
| Central Arkansas | 5-6 | 13-17 (5-11) |
| Oakland | 6-6 | 20-11 (14-4) |
| Tennessee Tech | 5-6 | 13-16 (7-11) |
| Alcorn St. | 0-12 | 3-28 (3-15) |
| UCLA | 3-7 | 9-21 (4-14) |
| Radford | 5-3 | 18-9 (14-4) |
| La Salle | 7-2 | 15-15 (6-10) |
| Michigan | 5-5 | 12-18 (5-13) |
| California | 6-3 | 22-7 (15-3) |
| Belmont | 7-4 | 23-7 (18-2) |
| Temple | 9-2 | 25-6 (13-3) |
| Cornell | 9-2 | 25-6 (12-2) |
| Tennessee | 8-2 | 21-9 (11-5) |
| Curr. Record | Proj. Record (Conf.) | |
|---|---|---|
| UC Irvine | 6-5 | 16-14 (8-8) |
| Western Carolina | 10-1 | 26-4 (16-2) |
| Iowa | 5-7 | 9-22 (3-15) |
| Pittsburgh | 9-2 | 19-12 (9-9) |
| Rice | 5-5 | 12-17 (5-11) |
| Long Beach St. | 6-5 | 19-10 (13-3) |
| Texas St. | 3-8 | 12-18 (6-10) |
| Texas Pan American | 1-11 | 8-22 (7-5) |
| North Carolina | 8-3 | 20-11 (8-8) |
| Michigan St. | 9-2 | 22-9 (12-6) |
| Gardner Webb | 3-7 | 7-21 (4-14) |
| Texas A&M Corpus Chris | 4-5 | 19-11 (12-4) |
| Arkansas | 6-5 | 9-22 (3-13) |
| Connecticut | 7-2 | 20-11 (10-8) |
| Curr. Record | Proj. Record (Conf.) | |
|---|---|---|
| Morehead St. | 4-5 | 15-14 (11-8) |
| Miami OH | 3-8 | 12-17 (9-7) |
| Sam Houston St. | 7-3 | 21-8 (12-4) |
| Rider | 8-5 | 15-15 (8-10) |
| Cleveland St. | 4-8 | 11-19 (7-11) |
| Stanford | 5-5 | 13-17 (7-11) |
| NC Asheville | 3-7 | 6-22 (4-14) |
| North Carolina | 8-3 | 20-11 (8-8) |
| Connecticut | 7-2 | 20-11 (10-8) |
| Indiana | 5-5 | 10-20 (4-14) |
| Austin Peay | 7-5 | 17-13 (12-6) |
| Drexel | 6-6 | 14-16 (9-9) |
| Long Beach St. | 6-5 | 19-10 (13-3) |
| Hartford | 2-9 | 10-19 (7-9) |
| Louisville | 7-3 | 18-13 (9-9) |
Of course, this comparison doesn't take in effect each opponent's RPI, which will be heavily used in the final RPI computations. The NCAA prefers to wait for the season to mostly shake out before they start releasing the official RPI rankings.
Remember that these projections could be off. Drexel very well may run through and win their conference. But assuming that the projections hold, the RPI and SOS of their cupcakes won't hurt Kentucky, provided that Kentucky only loses 2 or 3 games. If Kentucky were to drop 4+ games between now and March, the Wildcats' RPI might take a hit and force a worse seed in the NCAA Tourney. Too bad Morehead State has just been awful this season, as they were expected to win their conference at the beginning of the year.
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