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ESPN's FPI continues to doubt LSU despite 3-0 start

On3 imageby: Matthew Brune09/16/25MatthewBrune_
LSU running back Caden Durham - @ Scott Clause - Imagn/Images, USA Today Network
LSU running back Caden Durham - @ Scott Clause - Imagn/Images, USA Today Network

ESPN’s FPI has had LSU outside of the top ten for the entire first three weeks of the season, seemingly being lower on the Tigers than any other model or outlet in the country. The predictive metric has LSU ranked as the No. 19 team in the country despite a 3-0 start including wins over Clemson on the road and Florida to start SEC play.

Of those 18 teams ahead of LSU, eight are SEC teams and one is an 0-2 Notre Dame team. Obviously, this is not a reactionary metric, but one that is used to predict how good a team will be in future matchups. LSU was able to cover the spread in both of its P4 games this year, showing they can outperform expectations, but there’s still work to do to get the models on their side.

ESPN’s FPI has LSU’s projected record at 8.1-3.9 still despite a 3-0 start. The Tigers have a two percent chance at winning the SEC, a 34.1 percent chance at making the playoffs, and a 1.2 percent chance at winning the national title. LSU is currently the No. 3 team in the AP Poll.

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.” – ESPN

More advanced stats on LSU

  • LSU ranks No. 4 in Strength of Record
  • LSU ranks No. 10th in remaining strength of schedule
  • LSU ranks No. 28 in game control
  • LSU ranks No. 5 in defensive efficiency
  • LSU ranks No. 61 in offensive efficiency

The offensive efficiency is bringing down the Tigers significantly, and coming off of another troubling game against Florida, there’s real pressure to move the ball more consistently and find some explosive plays.

The strength of schedule remaining speaks to the confidence in the talent of the SEC, with No. 3 Alabama, No. 8 Ole Miss, No. 13 Oklahoma, and No. 15 Texas A&M all on the docket (rankings from the FPI).

Game control is another meaningful stat for the committee at the end of the year, showing dominance, which is not something LSU has been yet this season. The Tigers had chances to extend leads in all three games but the offensive struggles have kept them all low scoring. Can Brian Kelly’s team start to pick up more convincing results in the coming weeks to assert themselves as one of the best teams in the nation? The AP pollsters already are bought in, even if the models and computers are hesitant.