Impact of LSU's loss: On3's Brett McMurphy's Bowl Projections

LSU dropped outside the Top 10 in the polls following Saturday’s loss to No. 13 Ole Miss, but what does it mean for the team’s playoff chances?

On3’s Brett McMurphy has become one of the most-trusted names relative to college football bowl games, and once again, his weekly projection has the Tigers in the 2025 College Football Playoffs.

McMurphy did not have the Tigers as a Top 4 overall seed after the program’s 4-0 start to the college football season – but Brian Kelly’s team did check in at the No. 5 spot in the 12-team predicted playoff group.

As the dust settled on the loss to No. 13 Ole Miss, moving the Rebels to 5-0 and dropping the Tigers to 4-1, McMurphy swapped out the Rebels and Tigers in the Week 6 bowl projections.

Here’s a closer look at what the loss did for LSU Football’s bowl projections with the first month of the season now in the books.

LSU out, Ole Miss in on College Football Playoffs predictions

Music City Bowl (Dec. 30)
Nashville, Tenn.
LSU vs. Illinois

What It Means: The Music City Bowl vs. Illinois is not going to move the meter with LSU fans in a season when making the CFB Playoffs feels like a must. The silver lining: The No. 4, No. 6 and No. 10 teams on McMurphy’s Week 6 CFB Playoff predictions are all on LSU’s remaining schedule.

So, opportunity remains for teams ranked ahead of LSU to lose, and the Tigers will get the chance at delivering a loss to three of the 12 teams in McMurphy’s current CFB Playoff predictions.

One week ago, with LSU sitting at 4-0, McMurphy had LSU as the No. 5 seed vs. Memphis in a game that would be played in Tiger Stadium to begin the week before Christmas Day.

Memphis is still in the No. 12 spot, but with LSU’s loss to Ole Miss, the Rebels moved into the No. 5 spot, while LSU dropped out of the Top 12.

The season is far from over, but if 10-2 all but guarantees a CFB playoff spot for LSU, the margin for error at 4-1 on the season shrinks with seven regular season games remaining.