LSU Opponent Preview 2023: Texas A&M

The final installation of the opponent preview series comes with Texas A&M in the final game of the season for 2023 on Saturday, Nov. 25 in Baton Rouge. Last year the Aggies played spoiler to the Tigers’ magical season, handing LSU a lost in College Station, ending its playoff hopes.

This year, both teams enter with ample pressure to win and potentially play in the SEC title game. Brian Kelly enters year two with a challenging slate of games, but its the one against Texas A&M that always feels unpredictable in this rivalry.

Prior teams: Florida State, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Auburn, Army, Alabama, Florida, Georgia State

Head coach: Jimbo Fisher (6th season)

Offensive coordinator: Bobby Petrino (1st season)

Defensive coordinator: DJ Durkin (2nd season)

Last year

After entering the year No. 6 in the AP poll, Texas A&M’s problems were evident from the first game against Sam Houston State. From there, the Aggies lost to Appalachian State, beat Miami, lucked into a win over Arkansas, then lost six straight SEC games before closing the year with wins over UMass and LSU.

A 5-7 season, the worst record since 1980, multiple young players being kicked off the team or suspended, and more inept offense, it felt like the end of Fisher in College Station. However, with a $85.9 million buyout, Fisher survived, swapped out coordinators, and looked forward to 2023.

Offense

It’s been a common theme under Fisher, but it was a massively disappointing season for Texas A&M’s offense, finishing ranked 103rd in offensive EPA per play. Averaging 22.8 points per game despite a more than capable group of receivers and Devon Achane at running back is alarming. Achane ended the year with 1,102 yards on 196 carries. The lack of development at quarterback is perhaps even more of an issue, though.

Max Johnson’s run as a starter was short lived, Haynes King ended the year with the most passes attempted, but it was clear Conner Weigman was the best quarterback of the group. Once the Aggies realized that, it allowed them to at least be competitive against Ole Miss and beat LSU. It was a good receiver group with Evan Stewart and Moose Muhammad as well, but they combined for just six touchdowns.

Defense

The entire offseason was based around the potential of this defense with the addition of the top recruiting class in 2022, but it wasn’t enough to patch all of the holes. The Aggies ended last year 45th in defensive EPA per play with a couple NFL-caliber defensive backs in  and a really strong defensive front with Edgerrin Cooper and Chris Russell. 

The pass defense was much better than the rush defense, but the entire season the defense was playing behind the eight-ball hoping the offense would create something positive.

Offseason moves

Notable departures

Drafted: RB Devon Achane (84 overall, 3rd round), Antonio Johnson (160 overall, 5th round), Jaylon Jones (221 overall, 7th round).

Transfers: CB Deyon Bouie, DE Anthony Lucas, CB PJ Williams, DE Marcus Burris, RB LJ Johnson, Marquis Groves-Killebrew, CB Denver Harris, DL Elijah Jeudy, DE Tunmise Adeleye, QB Haynes King.

Losing 17 transfers to other P5 programs and a handful more to teams like SMU, Memphis, and Tulane is a lot of turnover, but not a surprise with the amount of dysfunction that went on over the past 12 months.

Big-time additions

2023 class: DL David Hicks, RB Reuben Owens, IOL Chase Bisontis, CB Javon Thomas, CB Bravion Rogers

Transfers: CB Tony Grimes, CB Josh DeBerry, S Sam McCall, WR Jahdae Walker, RB David Bailey, LB Jurriente Davis, WR Tyrin Smith.

The recruiting class ranked 15th in the country and the transfer class doesn’t stand out on paper compared to the rest of the SEC West, but it’s still a solid offseason for Fisher and his staff who have plenty of talent already on their roster to make this work. A&M fans should not be worried about not having enough talent entering the 2023 season, but making the most of it.

Going into 2023

Top returners: WR Evan Stewart, WR Ainias Smith, LB Chris Russell, S Demani Richardson, DT McKinnley Jackson, C Bryce Foster.

There’s enough offensive weaponry, and a quarterback with adequate talent, to make this work. Is Bobby Petrino the answer for Fisher’s offensive problems? Will Fisher surrender a majority of the offensive play calling duties? These are both questions that leave ample uncertainty surrounding this team entering the year. On paper, it’s a good team, but it’s not the level of talent that can overcome shortcomings from the coaching staff for a second straight year.

From a talent perspective, there’s no reason this team should finish worse than third in the SEC West, but A&M still has one of the worst quarterback rooms in the division and will need to get the most out of Weigman to edge out Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State.

It’s a much easier non-conference schedule this year without Appalachian State, but a road game at Miami in week two. The Aggies get Tennessee and South Carolina from the SEC East, and have to play at LSU and at Ole Miss this year.

Expectations

I think a reasonable expectation for this team is 7-5, considering the Aggies will be 7+ point underdogs in three of their games and have tight spreads for five or six more. Will 7-5 be OK to fans in College Station? No, not at all.

Unfortunately, if Fisher does not win at least eight games, A&M is in the same situation that it found itself in this summer: Staring down the barrel of a massive buyout.

The biggest games are at Miami and against Arkansas in Dallas. Those two games will determine A&M’s trajectory through five games with Alabama and Tennessee the following two weeks.

Early look at LSU vs. Texas A&M

The Aggies made LSU look bad last year in College Station. Devon Achane was excellent and the LSU defense was clearly fatigued and unable to muster the energy that won games like Arkansas, Alabama, and Auburn. Instead, the Aggies were far more physical and able to get an upset win over the Tigers at home.

This year, the expectation is for LSU to have significantly more depth on the defensive line and for A&M to be a better passing offense than rushing offense.

On the other side, the talent between LSU’s offense and A&M’s defense is exciting on paper, but this will be a great challenge for Jayden Daniels and the offensive unit in what could be a pivotal game for postseason play. The fact this game is in Baton Rouge plays a major factor in LSU being substantial favorites heading into the year.