LSU vs. Iowa: Keys to the game, prediction for Elite 8 matchup
Last time LSU and Iowa met, it was a record-breaking championship game that grabbed the attention of the nation and further propelled women’s basketball into the spotlight. Angel Reese and Caitlin Clark once again had incredible seasons as All-Americans and now their teams meet in the Elite 8 on Monday at 6:15 with a Final Four berth on the line.
“It’s going to take all players that play,” LSU head coach Kim Mulkey said. “We’re not going to have to knock down jumpers to beat Iowa. We’re going to have to play good. We’re going to have to play hard. We’re going to have to defend. We’re going to have to get back in transition defense. We have to do a lot of little things to beat them.”
Here are my three keys to the game and final prediction for tonight’s contest.
1. Make Caitlin shoot a bunch of threes
Clark is 22-of-76 (28.9%) from 3-point range in her six games since the end of the regular season on March 3, but in that time she has had four games of double-digit assists, including 15 against Colorado last round. Clark talked about settling too much last time she faced LSU, taking 19 of her 22 shots from three and I think that’s true. When she takes a ton of threes it negates a huge part of her game, which is breaking down defenses off the dribble. The long 3-pointers are fun, but Clark has to get in the paint more tonight. LSU has to keep her out of the lane and off the free throw line and live with her chucking a bunch of off balance or deep threes.
I’m not saying go under screens or close out short, but if Clark wants to take a bunch of 3-pointers from 25+ feet out, then LSU has to live with that and play the percentages. She’s an all-time great scorer, but there’s a reason Steph Curry doesn’t walk past half court and heave deep threes. They’re not high percentage shots. LSU needs to stay attached and contest (without fouling) her threes, but I don’t think the Tigers necessarily need to sell out to stop Clark from shooting those deep threes until she’s hit a couple in a row. If Clark has an unreal shooting night, it might be too much to overcome, but Flau’Jae Johnson is up for the task of defending her and should be a physical presence and excellent athlete for Clark to compete with.
This play below is an elite defensive possession.
Deny Clark, help is there outside of the paint, great rotation down then recovery to prevent the corner three, dig on the post, recover to Clark for the tough three. this is the activity level it will take from LSU for 40 minutes tonight. the Tigers did it against UCLA and will have to replicate that effort.
2. Pressuring Iowa on the catch
Watch Iowa’s game against West Virginia, a defense that forces a ton of turnovers similar to LSU, and it’s clear how uncomfortable Iowa was, nearly losing in that second round game. As a team, Iowa had just seven assists to 15 turnovers and was just 5-of-22 from three. Kate Martin had two assists to three turnovers, Gabby Marshall hardly touched the ball and went 0-of-4 from the field. Even playing at home didn’t help Iowa’s offense.
West Virginia is 2nd in steals per game, LSU is 10th. Now, West Virginia does employ a full court press, which LSU won’t do, but the concept is the same. If you can make these other players besides Clark have to put the ball on the ground, it could be a long night for the Hawkeyes. LSU is great at digging, swiping, and playing the passing lanes off the dribble and I expect the Tigers to get 10+ steals.
3. LSU needs to attack the paint
LSU will win this game with interior scoring and offensive rebounding on offense. If Iowa sits in their zone, LSU can not settle for threes, but look to get Aneesah and Angel in their spots and let them attack then crash the glass. We’ve seen LSU struggle with zones at times this year, but it’s all about pace and being decisive. Hannah Stuelke is a fine player at 6-foot-2 on the inside, but she’s not near the quality of Reese or Morrow on the glass. Iowa’s Kate Martin gets in there too, but she can be bullied on the boards as well.
West Virginia settled for too many 3-pointers, ending the game 9-of-34 from deep and 12-of-28 from two with 10 offensive rebounds despite ranking 253rd in offensive rebounds per game. LSU doesn’t need to repeat what it did last year to beat Iowa.
LSU shot 11-of-17 in the title game last year. This year, I don’t think LSU needs to make more than four to win this game as long as the Tigers are controlling the glass and the free throw line.
Prediction: LSU 83, Iowa 72
Last year, I felt like it was a winnable game for LSU in the title game because of the Tigers’ defense, but this year, the matchup is even more favorable for LSU. The defense has been quality over the past two months and seems to have taken enough steps forward to get them to the Elite 8. Now, the question is, can the Tigers contain Clark and get to a Final Four?
I think LSU’s only concern in this game is foul trouble to Flau’Jae Johnson or Angel Reese, but also, we’ve seen LSU force its opponents into foul trouble the past few weeks and that very well could happen again. LSU is rolling right now and the only thing that can stop it from getting to a Final Four is an all-time game from Clark. I’m going to bet on Flau’Jae Johnson and the Tigers to get enough stops and shred this Iowa defense to get the win.
