Preview & Prediction: Keys for LSU against UCLA in Sweet 16
LSU faces UCLA in a must-watch Sweet 16 contest on Saturday at noon CT on ABC, with a spot in the Elite 8 on the line. After a couple shaky halves to start the tournament, LSU turned it on for a dominant second half against Middle Tennessee to win comfortably, while UCLA had to come from behind to beat Creighton to get here.
It’s two teams with ample star power and a lot of similarities on paper. As we approach just 24 hours until tipoff, here’s an in-depth preview and scouting report on UCLA along with my prediction at the end.
Starting five plus one scouting report
G Londynn Jones
5’4” sophomore
Scouting report: High volume 3-point shooter, with 60.4 percent of her shots coming from deep. She shoots 37.1 percent from three on 6.8 attempts per game, so limiting her attempts is key. She’s the perfect role player for this UCLA team that has go-to players as she doesn’t need the ball in her hands. 1:1 assists to turnover ratio. Put Hailey Van Lith on her and tell her not to help off of her and LSU should be OK. Pressure her on the catch.
PG Charisma Osborne
5’9” graduate senior
Scouting report: UCLA’s leader in minutes this year with 33 per game. Osborne averages 14.1 points, four assists, and 5.2 rebounds as a valuable veteran for the Bruins. She always plays under control and is shooting 47.6 percent from two. Has a well-rounded game and is the calming force UCLA needs on the court with all the youth they play. Averages 5.2 3-point attempts per game, but only shoots at a 32 percent clip. I’d feel good with Last-Tear Poa on her, maybe some minutes with Van Lith or Mikaylah Williams, but they’ll have to be ready to guard.
G Kiki Rice
5’11” sophomore
Scouting report: A blossoming scoring threat, Rice has scored double figures in 11 of UCLA’s last 12 games and has scored 20+ in three of those games, including 20 and 24 in her two tournament games. The talent is evident when you watch her with the ball in her hands as she gets into the lane and has a great mid-range jumper with good variety and pace on the court. Someone who is capable of taking over if LSU is not locked in and making the game difficult. This is Flau’Jae Johnson’s matchup on Saturday and it will be a fun one to watch.
F Angela Dugalic
6’4” senior
Scouting report: Dugalic doesn’t log the minutes of the other five players here, but she;s a pivotal part of this team. For the year, she averages 24 minutes per game, but has only reached that mark once in the past seven contests, usually hovering around 20 minutes. An inefficient scorer, shooting just 36 percent from the field, but her value comes from behind the 3-point line where she attempts nearly four per game and makes 33 percent. Also, she’s a high-level defensive rebounder, bringing down 22.3 percent of defensive boards when on the court. This is Aneesah Morrow’s matchup and I think Morrow can cause Dugalic a lot of problems with her physicality and motor, however, scoring over Dugalic will be tough for the undersized Morrow.
C Lauren Betts
6’7” sophomore
Scouting report: Betts missed the first game of the NCAA Tournament with an injury, then returned to score 20 points and grab 10 rebounds in the win over Creighton on Monday. The all-conference center appears to be fine which is huge as she’s their biggest weapon against LSU. Betts averages 14.9 points, nine rebounds, and two blocks in about 27 minutes per game and had an easy time getting position in the post against Creighton. Her positioning is her biggest strength and it allows her to shoot 65 percent from the field. Angel Reese has played plenty of bigger post players this year, but it’s up to her to bring the physicality to Betts and make it hard on her from the jump – without fouling.
Gabriela Jaquez
6’ sophomore
Scouting report: The sixth woman on this team, Jacquez plays 25.1 minutes per game and has played over 30 in each of the two tournament games, scoring 19 then eight. She’s one of the more inconsistent players on the team, jumping back and forth from scoring 20 to scoring five, but she’s extremely efficient from two, at 57.1 percent this year. She’s not a shooter, though, at just 26 percent on 2.3 attempts per game. Another good rebounder and player who doesn’t demand the ball on offense. High level role player for the Bruins again that can play the three or the four.
The best of the best
These are the top two rebounding teams in the nation. UCLA is No. 3 in offensive rebound rate, No. 2 in defensive rebound rate, and No. 1 in overall rebound rate. LSU is No. 1 in offensive rebound rate and No. 2 overall. UCLA has more size with Betts who brings down 3.6 offensive boards per game, but Reese is perhaps the best rebounder in the nation with 5.5 offensive rebounds per game and 13.2 total.
LSU outrebounded South Carolina 44-37 with 17 offensive boards when they met in the SEC title game, limiting Cardoso and Ashlyn Watkins to 12 rebounds in total in a combined 40 minutes of play.
The battle on the glass is going to be fascinating on Saturday and it could come down to the guards. LSU has Mikaylah Williams and flau’Jae Johnson who both average around five rebounds per game, but UCLA has three guards who are in that range with Osborne, Rice, and Jaquez.
Advantages for LSU
- UCLA not a pressure defense – 141st in steals per game
- UCLA fouls a lot – 266th in foul rate
- UCLA doesnt get to the line – 214th in free throw rate
- Experience: Outside of Williams and Morrow, other four players have all been to a Final Four.
Advantages for UCLA
- Could neutralize Reese’s scoring
- Balanced scoring attack – top six players all between 19-24 usage percentage and are between 7.8 and 12.2 FGAs.
Prediction: LSU 78, UCLA 73
UCLA is the more consistently good team, but LSU at its apex is the better team. On Saturday, give me LSU to come ready to play defensively and that will trigger their transition opportunities and put them in control. If it’s a halfcourt game, I think UCLA is well equipped to win on both ends, but LSU’s ball pressure with Johnson, Morrow, Reese, and Poa is elite and it’s what will be the key factor in LSU making a run back to the Final Four.
Both teams have streaky shooters. Both teams have elite rebounders. There’s not much separating these two squads on paper, but Kim Mulkey, Angel Reese, and company have been here before. The Tigers know what it takes to win. UCLA has four sophomores in its six-player rotation. Osborne and Rice were here last year for UCLA, but it’s still going to require those two torching the Tigers and I just don’t see it. If LSU is engaged and playing with fire and pace, it wins this game.
