On3 Experts Split on Miami Hurricanes vs Texas A&M: Why They Think This Playoff Showdown Is A True Toss-Up

The Miami Hurricanes have a massive challenge on Saturday afternoon at Texas A&M. With the Aggies a 3.5-point favorite, this is a game that most think can go either way.

Some thoughts on the game from On3 experts?

Ari Wasserman says this is “a very hard game for me to pick – I’m a huge Texas A&M homer, a huge Miami homer.”

Wasserman says the key to picking this game is how good people think the Aggies actually are … or if perhaps the team’s over-rated because of a pretty easy SEC schedule that avoided teams like Georgia, Alabama and Oklahoma.

“On top of that you also have to decide whether you think Carson Beck can continue that ascension (11 TDs with one INT with 281.3 average yards and a ridiculous 79.5 completion percentage over the last four games) because the two games Miami lost he played terrible in both games and that interception situation could rear its ugly head at the worst possible time in one of the toughest road environments in the entire sport,” Wasserman said.

Wasserman adds that “I really like the way Miami is built. I like their front 7 on defense. Malachi Toney is turning into one of the best receivers in the sport as a true freshman, Carson Beck is playing well. I think I’m going to take points here, man. … I’m going to take the points between two teams that I think are evenly matched and I actually think this is the most compelling first round matchup of the entire slate.

“This is a game that Texas A&M most certainly can win. I think the spread should be closer. I know there’s a home field advantage at play here, but 3 1/2 is more points than I thought Miami was getting. I thought there was a chance that Miami would be slightly favored. I really like the way they’re playing, what they bring to the table.”

Andy Staples weighs in that Toney “is special, special” and “is going to be one of the best players in college football going forward.”

But Staples also points to Texas A&M standout WRs KC Concepcion and Mario Craver as massive playmakers.

“The big play potential in this game – you have two defenses that are great at getting after the quarterback,” Staples said. “This is going to be a game of huge plays going both directions. You have huge negative plays caused by these great pass rushers, have huge positive plays caused by Malachi Toney, Mario Craver, KC Concepcion. So you could see some massive swings.”

Staples said he thinks this game could resemble Texas A&M’s high-scoring game at Notre Dame earlier in the season … and Wasserman says he could see whoever wins this games perhaps pushing Ohio State and going on a run to the title game.

“They have a pretty tough second round matchup, whoever wins, but these are teams that were undervalued the entire season,” Wasserman said.

Staples says that he can make the case that whoever wins this game could beat Ohio State and win the national title.

“They have to beat Ohio State and then Georgia or Ole Miss – it’ll be a hard road,” Staples adds. “Both these teams are bult to play teams like that, are built on the lines of scrimmage.”

Staples’ pick?

“A very intimidating environment, I think Texas A&M is going to be ready, I think they’re still smarting from that loss to Texas,” Staples said. “I think the Aggies win and cover.”

Also weighing in with his thoughts: On3’s J.D. PicKell and Zak Herbstreit.

PicKell says this is an “intriguing” matchup with both teams at different points getting talk as potential national title contenders.

“I think the question is which version of each quarterback shows up,” PicKell said. “Is it Marcel Reed back to his game and what he was the first part of the year. … Same thing for Carson Beck. Throwing picks or let the game come to him, composed.”

He adds that “it’s a Coke-Pepsi taste test for me (with who is better). Both guys have played at a really high level at points in the year. I lean toward the guy who can win the game for me in more ways. If A&M is able to take some things away on the back end I don’t like Carson Beck’s ability to try to will them back into the football game. Whereas if Marcel Reed is having trouble with (passing) he can take off and run. If I’m taking just the quarterbacks here, I feel better about Marcel Reed.”

Herbstreit says he would take Beck over Reed.

“He’s handled noise before – I think overall he knows what to expect out of this matchup,” Herbstreit said.

PicKell says the trenches are going to be key.

“If you can support Carson Beck – hand the football off, set up in second and six, third and three,” PicKell said. “If they can do that (it will help). If it becomes about points, A&M is scoring, scoring at home, then I feel better about them. I also worry a little about Miam’s secondary, aggressive. There are plays downfield to be had.”

The final takeaway?

“This game is super evenly matched,” Herbstreit said. “I was trying to pick this game and was like `they are basically the same team.’ Both defenses are super stellar. Is the run game going to be there for either team? If you’re thinking one team who has the run game, Rueben Owens I’m thinking. But I don’t know. … I’m going with Miami. I was so back and forth on this. Watching film here, A&M leads in sacks, look scary. But I’m going with experience, have to go with Carson Beck and this Miami offense.”

PicKell says “3 1/2 points is usually assigned to home field advantage. Neutral sit, pick ‘em. Whoever you want. So I think I would take the team with more ways to win at home to get it done (Texas A&M). I think there’s no wrong way to go.”