By The Numbers: Can Michigan Put The SEC's CFP Dominance On Hold?

By Clayton Sayfie

There have been 27 College Football Playoff games since the four-team event began in 2014, and 16 of those have been won by SEC programs. That conference has also taken home the last four, and six of nine, national titles during that span. Michigan is looking to buck the trend in its upcoming Rose Bowl battle with Alabama.

Alabama (three), Georgia (two) and LSU (one) have been national champs in the CFP era. Clemson, an ACC power also residing in the South, also took home a pair of titles.

Adding Clemson and TCU (Big 12) into the mix with the SEC, programs from the South have won 23 of 27 CFP clashes. Only seven teams have won a CFP game in nine years, showing how little parity there has been at the top of the sport.

The Big Ten, meanwhile, has won three CFP games — all victories by Ohio State. The Buckeyes won two to win the title in 2014 and have come out on top in only one since, a victory over Clemson in a 2020 semifinal matchup. The only other non-Southern squad to win a CFP matchup is Oregon, which advanced past Florida State in the 2014 semifinal before falling to OSU. The Ducks will join the Big Ten next fall.

Michigan is one of four programs to make three straight appearances in the CFP, joining Alabama, Clemson and Oklahoma. The Wolverines, however, have lost their previous two semifinal matchups, 34-11 to Georgia in 2021 and 51-45 to TCU last season.

The Wolverines are one of seven programs to make multiple CFP appearances, joining Alabama (eight), Clemson (six), Ohio State (four), Oklahoma (four), Georgia (three) and Notre Dame (two).

Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh made history by leading his team to a third-straight Big Ten championship, becoming the first coach in the history of the conference that was founded in 1896 to do so. Harbaugh is in an elite club now that he’s lifted the Wolverines to the CFP for a third time, joining Alabama’s Nick Saban (eight appearances), Clemson’s Dabo Swinney (six), USC’s Lincoln Riley (three, all with Oklahoma), Georgia’s Kirby Smart (three) and Ohio State’s Ryan Day (three).

The Wolverines are the top-ranked team in the country, and Alabama is No. 4. The No. 1 team is 7-2 in CFP semifinal games and 10-6 overall, with three national championships.

When toe meets leather Jan. 1 at 2 p.m. local time, Harbaugh will become the 12th individual to play and coach in the Rose Bowl. He quarterbacked the Wolverines in a 22-15 loss to Arizona State on New Year’s Day in 1987. He’s the second with U-M ties to reach the Rose Bowl as both a player and coach for the Wolverines, joining Bump Elliott (win over USC in 1948 as a player and victory over Oregon State in 1965 as head coach).

Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy in rare air

Michigan junior quarterback J.J. McCarthy threw 2 interceptions that were returned for touchdowns, deadly mistakes in the loss to TCU in last year’s Fiesta Bowl. He also completed 20 of his 34 passes for 343 yards and 2 touchdowns and added 52 yards and a score on the ground in the Michigan defeat.

McCarthy is set to become the fifth-ever quarterback to start in multiple CFPs. The other four have all won national championships — Georgia’s Stetson Bennett (4-0 record from 2021-22), Clemson’s Deshaun Watson (3-1 from 2015-16), Alabama and Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts (3-2 from 2016-19) and Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence (3-2 from 2018-20).

By the numbers: Key Alabama stats

3.5 Seconds to throw per dropback for Alabama redshirt sophomore quarterback Jalen Milroe, the second-most in the country among those with 120 or more attempts. Buying time has allowed him to hit on deep passes. Milroe has completed 34 passes of 20-plus air yards, the most in the SEC and tied for sixth-most in the country. He has a 53.1 completion percentage on those attempts, third in the country behind LSU’s Jayden Daniels (63.6) and McCarthy (54.5). Sixteen of Milroe’s 23 passing touchdowns have come on those throws.

5 Alabama defenders landed on the All-SEC first team: redshirt senior defensive end Justin Eboigbe, junior outside linebacker Dallas Turner, junior cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry, freshman safety Caleb Downs and redshirt sophomore cornerback Terrion Arnold. Three other members of the Crimson Tide were also named first-team honorees: junior right tackle JC Latham, graduate kicker Will Reichard and junior long snapper Kneeland Hibbett.

5 SEC games in which Alabama has trailed in the second half. Four of the Crimson Tide’s 10 wins against SEC opponents came by one score — 27-24 over Auburn, 24-21 over Arkansas, 27-24 over Georgia and 26-20 over Texas A&M. The Tide beat only two Power Five opponents by more than 14 points — Kentucky (49-21) and Mississippi State (40-17).

6.2 Yards per carry allowed by the Alabama defense against designed quarterback runs (excluding sacks and kneel downs), which ranks 104th in the country according to Sports Info Solutions.

12 Rushing touchdowns for Milroe, ranking second nationally among quarterbacks behind West Virginia’s Garrett Greene (13). His 3.9 yards after contact per attempt check in seventh. Milroe has seen 479 of his 693 positive rushing yards come on scrambles, with 214 coming on designed runs.

43 Sacks allowed by Alabama, ranking tied for 123rd in the country. The Tide has given up 4 or more sacks in eight different games but only once since Oct. 21 (versus Georgia in the SEC championship game).

54 Pressures for Alabama senior outside linebacker Chris Braswell, leading the SEC. Junior outside ‘backer Dallas Turner has generated 52 pressures, second in the conference. The next-highest in the SEC behind those two is Tennessee’s James Pearce Jr. at 46. Only four other SEC defenders and six total have 40-plus pressures. Turner (19.1) and Braswell (18.3) rank second and third in the SEC in pressure rate in true pass sets, per PFF.

338.6 Pounds is the average weight of the projected Alabama starting offensive line, headlined by freshman left tackle Kadyn Proctor and Latham, each of whom weigh 360 pounds.