The 3-2-1: Washington Questions, A Prediction, More …
By Chris Balas
Michigan will face Washington in the National Championship game Monday night in Houston with a chance to win its first national title since 1997. The Wolverines are favored, but the Huskies are more than capable. Here are three questions we have about the Washington team, two thoughts on the Wolverines heading into Monday night’s game, and one prediction.
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Three questions we have about Washington
3. How good is this offensive line, really? No disrespect intended to the Huskies’ men up front — 11 sacks allowed on 522 pass attempts is no joke — but a lot of lines look better than they are with elite quarterback play. Texas, for example, got to quarterback Michael Penix a few times, but a quick shimmy or sidestep and he dismissed an out-of-control pass rusher. His ability to keep his eyes downfield and hit a receiver in stride after that is what sets him apart. He was probably the best quarterback in the country, all due respect to LSU’s Jayden Daniels.
This will be the best defensive line the Huskies have faced this year, and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter is one of the best at disguising coverages and mixing up defenses. The Washington line has struggled a few times with similar game plans — Arizona State comes to mind — so this should be a different challenge for the Joe Moore Award winners.
“Their O-line ain’t all that,” our Doug Skene, lineman on the 1991 and 1992 teams that played Washington in the Rose Bowl, said. We’ll find out soon enough.
2. Will the Washington offense take a hit with a less-than-100 percent Dillon Johnson? We know what Kalen DeBoer has said about his running back after what looked like a significant injury against Texas — we also know coach-speak when we hear it.
“I haven’t seen him today,” DeBoer said Monday. “I know that we got back yesterday, and they continued to look at him and had a report with our training staff today. This is just something he’s been working through for a couple months now and just played through it.
“There’s nothing as far as above and beyond what’s happened in the past. Just kind of throughout the game, he’d reaggravate it and shake it off and go back out there and play. I guess my thought is he’ll be ready to go. Obviously, it’s a quick week, quick turnaround — only seven days to get ready again.”
As our Anthony Broome said in chat yesterday, this feels like a Blake Corum 2022 Ohio State situation all over again. Corum gave it a go, but he knew in warm-ups he wasn’t going to last long. Even if Johnson tries, he won’t be 100 percent … and that probably won’t cut it against this Michigan defense.
We hope we’re wrong, honestly. You want both teams at their best in this one.
1. Will the Washington offense be able to move the ball if it’s one-dimensional? This is a really well-coached football team Michigan will face. And it’s not surprising. DeBoer has been a championship coach with elite offenses just about everywhere he’s been. His winning percentage as a collegiate head coach is around 90 percent. That’s insane.
Washington is no fluke. As one of their linemen said in response to ESPN analysts’ characterization of their offense as “basketball on grass,” 500-plus yards of offense against Texas pretty much says it all. They will rack up some yardage and make some plays.
Two thoughts on this Michigan team heading into Monday night’s game
2. Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy still has another gear to reach. The Rose Bowl MVP played a good game in the win over Alabama, but not his best He missed some receivers, put too much on a few passes underneath, and hasn’t looked “elite” like he did against Michigan State (for example) in a while.
Part of that, of course, is the defenses he’s faced. Penn State, Ohio State, Iowa, Alabama — they’re all outstanding in their own ways, and McCarthy doesn’t have elite receivers to help him out. It helps to have a great running game, of course, and Michigan seems close to getting back to that — that could open things up out of play-action Monday night.
We like this one as a game in which McCarthy can really thrive. He’s missed some open receivers the past few games, but this is a Washington defense that should afford him some opportunities for shots downfield. We like the “over” 192.5 passing yards for him in this one.
1. The Wolverines’ celebration after the Rose Bowl win felt like a title celebration. That’s led some, like play-by-play man Doug Karsch, to at least wonder a bit if they were basking a bit too much in the glow with another game still to go. It was reminiscent of the Detroit Red Wings finally making it over the hump before losing in four straight in the Stanley Cup Finals back in the 1990s.
This team, though, seems different. There are veterans who have been through it all, seen it all, and they aren’t going to lack in preparation for this game. We expect they’ll be ready to go and be well-prepared for this one. As they’ve said repeatedly, “the job’s not finished.”
One prediction
Michigan plays one of its cleanest games of the year and pulls out a win to become the program’s best team ever. 15-0 after playing a gauntlet of a schedule down the stretch would seal it.
Monday, the Wolverines looked a bit spooked early, maybe at the thought of playing a storied program like Alabama. It’s understandable. The size disparity, noticeable when we were on the field for the game, was something. But as the game progressed and the Michigan players settled down and realized they could play with them, they got more comfortable.
We don’t expect similar nerves this time, but we don’t sense overconfidence, either. If U-M plays a relatively clean game, the Wolverines bring home the hardware.
