Michigan named fallen preseason contender that can still make NCAA Tournament run
The Michigan Wolverines continue to scratch and claw for their NCAA Tournament lives with a gauntlet of a schedule down the stretch. Their lofty preseason status has made a 13-10 record this season enormously disappointing. However, one outlet believes there is still a postseason run in there to be unlocked.
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Bleacher Report’s David Kenyon named Michigan among five preseason contenders that have fallen, but could still make some noise in March. The others include Virginia, North Carolina, Oregon and Memphis. The Tigers and Wolverines are considered the first two teams out of the tournament field, per Bracket Matrix.
What Bleacher Report says about Michigan
Easily the most stunning drop of the season, Michigan arrived as a potential top seed in the NCAA tournament. After all, the Wolverines held a No. 1 slot in 2021, returned key players Hunter Dickinson and Eli Brooks, signed the nation’s third-best recruiting class and added a coveted transfer in DeVante Jones.
Why expect anything less than excellence?
But the losses piled up quickly, sending the Wolverines to a shocking 7-7 record with four letdowns of 14-plus points.
In mid-January—barely a month ago, relative to this writing—Michigan’s tournament hopes were fading fast. However, the Wolverines have since capitalized on a favorable portion of their Big Ten schedule, captured an upset of Purdue and managed a 6-3 record to only trail Memphis as the projected second team out.
The recovery isn’t close to complete; Michigan’s upcoming seven-game stretch is absolutely brutal. For now, though, the Wolverines are again a threat to snag an NCAA tournament berth.
What we say
B/R’s article is titled to say teams are still capable of making runs, but they have Michigan in a fringe spot of making the tournament. If by win a game or two, they might be on to something. Michigan has proven it can put good stretches together, but its outside shooting is far too inconsistent and the defensive effort seems to come and go. Those are not typical ingredients for deep tournament runs.
Right now, the Wolverines are scratching and clawing for their postseason lives. KenPom projects a 3-4 record the rest of the way, which would put Michigan at 16-14 (10-10 B1G) to close the season. That does not feel like it would be enough without a run in the Big Ten Tournament. They are going to need to grab a game somewhere they are not supposed to win. A pair of games against Iowa (Feb. 17, March 3), Wisconsin in Madison (Feb. 20), a home showdown with Illinois (Feb. 27) and a road trip to Ohio State (March 6) would all fit that bill.
It makes it critical that games against Rutgers (Feb. 23) and Michigan State (March 1) at home go in the win column. Dropping any of those makes the road that much tougher.
So if this team gets into the tournament, can they make some noise? It does not seem farfetched that given the right matchups, they could sneak into the second weekend of the tournament. There is volatility to the type of performance we see out of them on a given night. Some days, the shots fall and the offense flows tremendously. Other nights they can struggle to score 65 points. That has been the story of the year. There is a lot of growing up to do before the lights get the brightest.
The chase continues on Thursday night with a trip to take on Iowa. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET from Carver Hawkeye Arena on ESPN.
