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Michigan football slips in ESPN's FPI rankings after opener

Anthony Broomeby: Anthony Broome09/03/23anthonytbroome
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Sep 2, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Blake Corum (2) rushes in the first half against the East Carolina Pirates at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The Michigan Wolverines moved to 1-0 on the season with a 30-3 win over East Carolina on Saturday, but a less-dominant-than-expected showing has some hitting the pause button on the hype train until more data becomes available.

With the caveat of one game’s worth of stats and film, the computers have weighed in on what’s next for the Wolverines.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has Michigan finishing with a 9.9-2.3 record on the season, ranking No. 8 in the country and falling two spots from last week’s Week 0 update. Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Oklahoma, LSU, USC and Notre Dame are the teams ranked ahead of the Wolverines.

FPI’s win percentages have Michigan as the favorite in nine of its 11 remaining regular season games. The game at Penn State (46.5% chance of victory) on Nov. 11 and the rivalry showdown with Ohio State (32%) on Nov. 25 in Ann Arbor are the two contests where the analytics project the most difficult time.

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

After Sunday afternoon’s update, here’s the breakdown of the numbers and win percentages.

Michigan football’s updated FPI and win projections

RankProj. W-LWin Out%6+ Wins%Win Division%Win Conference%Playoff%Make NC%Win NC%
89.9-2.35.8%99.6%18.8%15.1%18.6%8.2%3.5%

Sept. 2 vs. East Carolina (FPI rank: 75th) – 30-3 W (1-0)
Sept. 9 vs. UNLV (116th) – 98.4% chance of victory
Sept. 16 vs. Bowling Green (126th) – 98.7% chance of victory
Sept. 23 vs. Rutgers (76th) – 95.5% chance of victory
Sept. 30 at Nebraska (51st) – 84.1% chance of victory
Oct. 7 at Minnesota (43rd) – 79.5% chance of victory
Oct. 14 vs. Indiana (63rd) – 91.4% chance of victory
Oct. 21 at Michigan State (34th) – 76% chance of victory
Oct. 28 – BYE
Nov. 4 vs. Purdue (61st) – 93.4% chance of victory
Nov. 11 at Penn State (11th) – 46.5% chance of victory
Nov. 18 at Maryland (39th) – 78.2% chance of victory
Nov. 25 vs. Ohio State (2nd) – 32% chance of victory

What’s next for U-M?

The Wolverines are back in action next week against UNLV at Michigan Stadium. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

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