By the numbers: What kind of MSU teams pull upsets over Michigan?

No. 25 Michigan Wolverines football is a 14.5-point favorite over Michigan State Saturday in East Lansing, but betting lines and records don’t matter in a rivalry game, as head coach Sherrone Moore has preached to his team.

Michigan may be ripe to be upset this weekend, considering it’s a night game on the road, and the Wolverines are 1-2 away from Ann Arbor this year. This is MSU’s biggest game of every season, and while the Spartans are 3-4 overall and losers of four straight, they’re motivated to capture the Paul Bunyan Trophy for the first time since 2021.

Ever the underdog against Michigan — college football’s all-time winningest program — the Spartans have had the opportunity to pull off upsets against the Maize and Blue, and cashed in numerous times, including over ranked teams in 22 instances, even though U-M leads the series 74-38-5.

Former MSU head coach and current interim associate head coach Mark Dantonio posted an impressive 8-5 record against Michigan from 2007-19. He took advantage of the Wolverines being down under head coaches Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke, with six of his victories coming against those two individuals. He went 2-3 versus former Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh.

Even former MSU head man Mel Tucker, who was let go in September 2023 after being accused of sexual harassment, led his Spartans to upset victories over U-M — in 2020 and 2021.

It’s rare, though, when a bad MSU team beats a good or great Michigan group. The Spartans have a losing record and look on their way to missing a bowl game for the fourth-consecutive season and sixth time in 10 years, though there’s a lot of season left. Michigan, meanwhile, is ranked in the top 25 and, while nowhere near elite, still has hopes of playing in the College Football Playoff, even if the chances are slim with a 5-2 record.

In fact, Michigan hasn’t lost to an MSU team that has finished the season with more than two fewer wins than U-M since 1995 — 13 losses against the Spartans ago. That season, Michigan finished 9-4, while MSU wound up 6-5-1. Since 1969, there is only one other instance of that happening, when MSU (4-6) took down the Wolverines (8-3) in Bo Schembechler‘s first year as the head coach in Ann Arbor.

The Spartans deserve credit for taking advantage of opportunities to beat Michigan, like against first-year head coaches Schembechler (1969) and Lloyd Carr (1995). When MSU is having a successful season by its standards, it often beats its biggest rival. But when it’s not, it rarely does.

Sherrone Moore can join small group of Michigan coaches

Last season, Moore became the first Michigan head coach since Bennie Oosterbaan in 1948 to win his first meeting against MSU and seventh overall, joining Fritz Crisler (1938), Harry Kipke (1929), Tad Wieman (1927), George Little (1924), Fielding Yost (1902) and Gustave Ferbert (1897).

If the Wolverines come out the victor Saturday night, Moore will be only the fifth U-M coach and the first since Oosterbaan in 1948 and 1949 to win his first two against the Spartans. The others to do so in addition to Oosterbaan are Fritz Crisler (1938 and 1939), Tad Wieman (1927 and 1928) and Fielding Yost (1902 and 1907).

It’s worth noting, too, that Kipke tied Michigan State in 1930 after beating the in-state foe in 1929, and that Little, only head coach for one year in 1929, only faced the Spartans once.

By the numbers: Michigan vs. Michigan State

3-Consecutive wins in the series for Michigan. The Spartans’ last win over the Wolverines was a 37-33 game in 2021.

4-Straight losses for MSU, against USC (45-31), Nebraska (38-27), UCLA (38-13) and Indiana (38-13). MSU has only one win over a Power Four opponent, beating Boston College in double-overtime Sept. 6 (42-40). The Eagles are 1-6 overall and 0-4 in the ACC.

8 Yards per pass attempt for Michigan freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, tied as the eighth-best mark in the Big Ten. MSU’s Aidan Chiles, meanwhile, is 10th in the conference at 7.2.

48 Of the last 55 meetings between the two schools have been won by the team that finished with more rushing yards. From 1969 to 1994, the team with the most rushing yards won 26 consecutive games. However, last season, Michigan State rushed for 163 yards to the Wolverines’ 119, and U-M won 24-17.

74-38-5 Is Michigan’s advantage in the all-time series. The Spartans’ 38 wins are the second-most any program has over Michigan, behind Ohio State (52).

77th Is where MSU ranks in the FBS in scoring offense, averaging 27.1 points per contest. The Spartans are 108th in total offense (336.7 yards).

121st In the country is where the Spartans slot in scoring defense, giving up 32.7 points per clash. MSU is 88th in yards allowed per game (382.7).

1953 Was when Michigan and Michigan State began playing for the Paul Bunyan Trophy, a nearly four-foot-tall prize that goes to the game’s winner. The Wolverines lead the series 41-29-2 since then.