Previewing U-M vs. Purdue in the B1G championship game with a Boilermakers insider

By Clayton Sayfie

TheWolverine.com caught up with GoldandBlack.com‘s Tom Dienhart to preview Michigan Wolverines football versus the Purdue Boilermakers in the Big Ten championship game. Dienhart provided some insight into Purdue, offered a final score prediction and more. We start with a breakdown of the Boilermakers’ starters.

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Purdue projected starters on offense

• Sixth-year senior QB Aidan O’Connell — He’s completed 288 of his 452 pass attempts (63.7 percent) for 3,124 yards and 22 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. His 284 passing yards per game average leads the Big Ten (he missed one contest). He’s struggled on the deep ball, completing only 12 of his 47 attempts on passes of 20-plus air yards for 444 yards and 4 touchdowns with 1 interception.

• Redshirt freshman RB Devin Mockobee — The former two-star recruit and walk-on is one of the better feel-good stories in the Big Ten this season. He’s broken out for 849 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns on 165 attempts, averaging 5.1 yards per carry.

• Sixth-year senior WR Charlie Jones — He’s leading the Big Ten in receptions (97), receiving yards (1,199) and is tied for first in touchdown catches (12). The overwhelming majority of his catches are on short and intermediate routes, typically in the middle of the field or outside the numbers on the right side.

• Redshirt junior WR TJ Sheffield — He’s caught 35 passes for 370 yards and 3 touchdowns.

• Redshirt sophomore WR Andrew Sowinski — The slot receiver has brought in 8 catches for 72 yards in 10 games. He’s part of a rotating cast at the position that includes redshirt senior Tyrone Tracy Jr., who has 26 receptions for 185 yards.

• Redshirt senior TE Payne Durham — He’s second on the team in both catches (54), receiving yards (550) and touchdown grabs (8). He has a lowly 51.5 PFF run-blocking rating.

• Sophomore LT Mahamane Moussa — He took over as the starter earlier this season and has only seven starts under his belt. The 6-foot-4, 285-pounder has a 60.1 overall PFF grade with 12 pressures and 1 sack allowed.

• Redshirt junior LG Spencer Holstege — The Grand Rapids, Mich., native has made 30 career starts. The 6-foot-5, 310-pounder has a 70.7 overall PFF rating with 7 pressures and no sacks allowed. His 87.4 run-blocking grade leads the team.

• Junior C Gus Hartwig — The 6-foot-5, 310-pounder has opened 28 career contests. He owns a 71.9 overall PFF grade with 11 pressures and no sacks given up.

• Redshirt freshman RG Marcus Mbow — The 6-foot-5, 305-pounder is a first-year starter (13 starts) with a 70.5 overall PFF rating and 11 pressures (no sacks) yielded.

• Redshirt senior RT Eric Miller — The 6-foot-7, 305-pounder has opened 25 career games. He has a 57.0 overall PFF rating with 11 pressures and 3 sacks given up.

Purdue projected starters on defense

• Redshirt senior NT Lawrence Johnson — The 6-foot-3, 310-pounder has recorded 27 tackles, including 2.5 for loss and 1.5 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 2 quarterback hurries and 1 forced fumble.

• Redshirt junior DT Sulaiman Kpaka — The 6-foot-2, 280-pounder has notched 19 tackles, 1.5 stops for loss, a half-sack and 1 pass breakup. He’s started the last two games in replacement of redshirt senior starter Branson Deen, whose status is questionable. Deen has 3.5 tackles for loss and 4 quarterback hurries this season, and leads the team with 33 pressures.

• Redshirt senior DE Jack Sullivan — He leads the team with 5.5 sacks, while adding 33 total tackles, 7 stops for loss, 1 pass breakup, 2 quarterback hurries and 1 forced fumble. His 31 pressures rank second on the Purdue defense.

• Junior DE Kydran Jenkins — He’s made 30 tackles, including a team-high 8 behind the line of scrimmage, with 4 sacks, 7 quarterback hurries, 1 pass breakup, 1 forced fumble and 1 blocked kick. He’s notched 27 pressures.

• Sixth-year senior LB Kieren Douglas — He’s fourth on the team with 36 tackles, including 2.5 for loss and 1 sack, while adding 1 interception.

• Redshirt junior LB OC Brothers — He’s racked up 32 tackles, 1 sack, 3 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry and 1 fumble recovery.

• Senior LB/S Jalen Graham — The Detroit native is second on the Purdue defense with 48 tackles, 5 of which came behind the line of scrimmage, with 1 sack, 5 pass breakups, 1 interception, 1 quarterback hurry and 1 forced fumble. He’s allowed 24 receptions for 243 yards and no touchdowns on 37 targets in coverage.

• Fifth-year senior CB Reese Taylor — The Indiana transfer has registered 4 pass breakups and 1 interception, while posting 29 tackles. He’s been targeted 34 times down the field, yielding 20 catches for 372 yards and 1 touchdown.

• Redshirt senior CB Cory Trice — He leads the team with 9 pass breakups, adding 2 interceptions with 31 tackles. He’s given up only 18 catches for 195 yards and no touchdowns on 40 targets.

• Senior S Cam Allen — He’s third on the Purdue defense with 41 tackles, with a team-best 3 interceptions, 6 pass breakups, 2 fumble recoveries and 1 blocked kick. He’s been targeted in coverage on 36 occasions, giving up 19 catches for 136 yards and 3 touchdowns.

• Junior S Sanoussi Kane — He leads the defense with 63 tackles (3.5 for loss, 1 sack), while adding 3 pass breakups, 1 quarterback hurry, 1 fumble recovery and 2 forced fumbles. He’s been targeted 28 times in coverage, allowing 18 receptions and 6 touchdowns.

Purdue specialists

• Fifth-year senior K Mitchell Fineran — He’s connected on 13 of his 19 field goal attempts with a 43-yard long. He’s 11-of-12 from inside 40 yards but 2-of-7 from 40-plus.

• Sophomore P Jack Ansell — He’s averaging 41.8 yards per punt with 9 boots of 50-plus yards. He’s pinned opponents inside their own 20-yard line 12 times.

• Redshirt freshman Deion Burks — The wide receiver and Belleville, Mich., native has returned 14 kicks with a 19.9-yard average.

• Sixth-year senior PR Charlie Jones — Purdue’s leading receiver has brought back 7 punts with a 6.7-yard average. He was the Big Ten Return Specialist of the Year last season at Iowa.

Purdue passing attack

It’s no surprise that head coach Jeff Brohm‘s offense is a pass-first attack. The Boilermakers throw the seventh-most passes per game in college football (41.2), and average 280.7 yards per game through the air. They’re registering only 6.8 yards per attempt, however, which ranks tied for 92nd in the country.

“Every Jeff Brohm offense is gonna sort of be built around that vertical pass game,” Dienhart said. “He wants to take his shots downfield, and O’Connell is the most accurate passer in Purdue history. He’s got a good eye for getting the ball into tight windows.”

O’Connell’s brother passed away recently, and the quarterback has spent time away from the team and with his family this week. He’s still expected to play Saturday night.

“Now, I will say this, aside from Charlie Jones, the receiving corps is pretty pedestrian,” Dienhart continued. “And even Charlies Jones, to be honest with you, sometimes struggles to get separation. He’s been banged up most of the year, rarely practicing. He has his moments — he’s very good, don’t get me wrong. He usually gets his, but he’s had his problems at times, too, getting separation. Michigan’s secondary, I’m told, is really good. 

“They’re going to play around the pass. They do have a good tight end, Payne Durham, probably one of the top two or three tight ends in the Big Ten. Typically, when he plays well, Purdue does well. He’s a guy that I’m sure Purdue is going to try to get involved here.”

Most balanced unit Jeff Brohm has had

Purdue ranked dead last nationally with 2.8 yards per carry last season. So just about anything would be a step up, but the Boilermakers are up to 3.8 yards per rush attempt this season (85th nationally). Mockobee is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and has rushed for more than 100 yards on four occasions in Big Ten play.

“It’s probably the best balance he’s had in six years, to be honest with you,” Dienhart said. “Without Devin Mockobee, Purdue’s not in this title game.

“It’s been one of the best stories in recent program history — redshirt freshman walk-on from southern Indiana. The No. 1 running back got hurt earlier in the year, King Doerue, and that created an opportunity for Mockobee to get some reps, and he was off and running. He’s seized the No. 1 job the last half of the season, and he’s about ready to set the Purdue freshman rushing record.

“If you look at the kid, you stand next to him, there’s nothing physically impressive about him. He doesn’t have sprinter speed, but he just has a knack for finding holes and seams, he runs hard and he’s tremendous with his cuts, too. He’s just a special guy. They’ll throw him the ball, too. He’s really given that offense a legit ground game, which, as you can imagine, gives that much more bite to the pass game.”

Strength in numbers for Purdue defensive line

Purdue lost star defensive end George Karlaftis to the first round of the NFL Draft this past offseason, but it’s still a stout group up front.

Purdue ranks 36th nationally in rushing defense, allowing only 128.8 yards per game. Eight teams have eclipsed the 100-yard rushing mark, however, including the Boilermakers’ last six opponents.

The Boilermakers have 28 sacks on the season, ranked tied for seventh in the Big Ten.

“Without a doubt, it’s the line,” Dienhart said of the strength of Purdue’s defense. “It may be the strongest part of the entire team. There’s nobody special — there’s no George Karlaftis, there’s no [former Michigan defensive end] Aidan Hutchinson — but they’ve got a lot of really good players, and they can rotate them. They keep everybody fresh; they play 10 or 12 linemen every game. It’s been a real strength in quality numbers. 

“For the most part, they’ve been pretty good against the run. They got gashed a couple times — Wisconsin and Iowa got ‘em — but typically they’ve been pretty good with their run fits. So that’s been their strength.”

Concerns for Purdue defense

It’s the second and third levels of the Purdue defense that have been the weaknesses, Dienhart revealed. There are plays to be had in the pass game, with the Boilermakers allowing 7.3 yards per pass (tied 75th in the country). They’ve also given up 42 pass plays of 20-plus yards, which is tied for 92nd in the land.

“The linebackers, honestly, are very pedestrian,” Dienhart said. “There’s not a lot of speed there, there’s not a lot of athletic ability at linebacker. They struggle to cover, and not a lot of sideline-to-sideline quickness. 

“And the secondary has had some real issues in coverage this year — almost to a point of a real crisis at one point this year.

“That’s going to be an area I’m sure Michigan is going to want to take their shots down field. I know they did last week against Ohio State and had a lot of success. They’re going to want to test this Purdue secondary. It’s a veteran secondary, but they’ve still really struggled in coverage.”

Dienhart’s final score prediction

“I think Michigan’s just too physical in the trenches on both sides of the ball,” Dienhart began. “The way that they can run the football … I know [junior running back] Blake Corum is probably not going to play, but [sophomore] Donovan Edwards will play, and that offensive line — I know Purdue’s D-line is pretty good — but … 

“And then the other way, too — Purdue’s offensive line has been solid this year. It’s going to be tough getting traction against Michigan’s defense. And Michigan showed a lot of big-play ability last week — like four of five plays of over 50 or 60 yards for touchdowns. I saw Edwards had two 75-plus yard runs in the fourth quarter. It was nuts. 

“So I think physicality and the overall athletic ability, explosiveness of Michigan will be too much for Purdue. Maybe they keep it close for a half. I think the Wolverines do cover in the end.”

Prediction: Michigan 35, Purdue 17.