Greg: A Return to Consistency Critical for Carolina Basketball

It’s been a difficult decade for the North Carolina basketball program and its fan base, relative to its long and illustrious history.

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In March 2019, Carolina basketball was in peak form, securing its third No. 1 seed in four years with a No. 2 seed the year before.  No one knew that when a hot-shooting Auburn squad upset those Tar Heels in the Sweet 16 in Kansas City, that loss would mark the end of Roy Williams’ glory days in Chapel Hill. The 2019-20 team was eliminated from the NCAA Tournament the day before the Covid-19 pandemic shuttered the event, and a year later, Williams kissed the hardwood court with his name on it following one last win over Duke.

The past decade has been marked by massive change in college basketball. First came the transfer portal, followed by Covid, which wreaked havoc not only on the 2020 postseason but crippled offseason opportunities that coaches relied on. NIL legislation arrived in July 2021 and the House settlement took effect four years later. As if that wasn’t enough, UNC added a coaching change into the mix, as Williams’ retirement in April 2021 ushered in the Hubert Davis era in Chapel Hill.

Davis enters a pivotal fifth season at the helm in which questions remain surrounding his job status. His signature win – a Final Four victory over Duke in Mike Krzyzewski’s final game – is an achievement of legend and his 2023-24 team was a traditional Carolina team through and through, yet his Tar Heels missed the NCAA Tournament in 2023 and were the last team in last spring. Davis has proven he can win, but can he win enough?

The blue-blooded program that Dean Smith built and Williams returned to prominence has a resume that lacks rivals, save for a select few. The Tar Heels have won six NCAA national championships, reached a record 21 Final Fours and claimed 33 ACC regular season titles and 18 ACC Tournament titles.

Sometimes lost in the magnitude of the accolades is the foundation upon which they were built: a consistency of excellence. If there was a knock on Smith, it was that he didn’t maximize the count of NCAA national championships given the stacked teams that he rolled onto the court year after year, decade after decade. That also speaks to his emphasis on the ACC regular season title. Single-elimination tournaments are rife with upsets. The NCAA Tournament is a beloved event for that very aspect. There are no flukes when it comes to winning a months-long conference race in which consistency is rewarded.

The best teams in college basketball don’t always win the NCAA Tournament – the 2025 Final Four marked the second time in tournament history that all four No. 1 seeds reached the national semifinals – although it’s the best teams that are most likely to win. No. 1 seeds have won 26 of the past 39 NCAA Tournament championships. A top four seed has won 37 of the past 39 titles (95%).

That data provides necessary context in determining what constitutes a successful season in a town like Chapel Hill where fans have celebrated so many significant victories that traditions form. Storming Franklin Street, which is the equivalent of rushing a football field after a massive win, is a rite of passage for Carolina fans and alums, passed down from generation to generation.

A UNC public engagement survey conducted in 2024 found that every donor who participated indicated that the baseline for success for Carolina basketball is a program that is capable of competing for national championships on an annual basis, in addition to ranking near the top of the ACC standings and beating Duke each season.

Those expectations grew out of the success of Carolina basketball from its early days, but have been carved into stone in the modern era, which dates back to NCAA Tournament expansion in 1985. In the first 35 years since expansion, UNC made the NCAA Tournament field 32 times and earned a No. 1 or No. 2 seed 21 times (60%). The Tar Heels earned a No. 4 seed or better 26 times (74.3). Over the past five seasons, UNC has earned a No. 1 seed, two No. 8 seeds, a No. 11 seed and failed to qualify once.

From another perspective, UNC was ranked in the final AP poll in all but six seasons from 1970-71 through 2018-19. The Tar Heels have been ranked in the final AP poll just once in the past six years.

From yet another, UNC failed to win an ACC title of any kind in the four years from 2019-20 through 2022-23. That’s the longest stretch without a conference title in nearly 60 years. Davis has won one conference title – the regular season crown in 2023-24 – in his first four years as head coach.

The determining factors for Davis’ future in Chapel Hill are known only to chancellor Lee Roberts, athletic director Bubba Cunningham and athletic-director-in-waiting Steve Newmark. At some point, though, a return to the consistency of national relevance is required. The financial commitment is in place, to the tune of $14 million for the current year roster, as well as a high-priced general manager in Jim Tanner.

Carolina did not become one of the top programs in college basketball by happenstance. UNC did so by winning at a high rate and putting itself in position to compete for national titles more often than not.