Tar Heels Lagging Behind As Bye Week, ACC Play Approach

ORLANDO, Fla. — Bill Belichick stood alone on the North Carolina sideline as he watched UCF’s Jaden Nixon sneak in one final touchdown to further cement the UNC loss on Saturday inside Acrisure Bounce House.

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Belichick looked on with his arms folded, threw his hands up for a second, then placed his hands on his hip. He stood despondent as the Tar Heels fell to a 2-2 record, with the two defeats coming through blowout losses to Big 12 teams. The Knights took care of UNC 34-9 on Saturday, another mismatch for North Carolina against a legitimate opponent.

The Tar Heels were outscored 82-23 in their losses to TCU and UCF, the only Power Conference teams they’ve played so far before ACC competition begins. In both instances, once they fell behind, they found no way to climb back into the game and keep it competitive. That trend doesn’t bode well going into conference play, as it seems answers are hard to come by for Belichick’s North Carolina team.

“Well, I mean, it’s still a work in progress, and we’ll continue to work through it,” Belichick said after Saturday’s loss, going into UNC’s first bye week of the season. “It’s a good time now to kind of re-evaluate. Look back at all four games, not just the last one or the first one or some other one, and try to take a look at it on a composite and see where we are on everything. Some things that we can do better, some things we probably need to move on from, some things we probably need to add.”

Things haven’t come together for Belichick in his introductory collegiate season. After he scrounged together players from across the country in the winter and spring transfer portal windows, expectations were hard to establish. Either his experienced staff would find the diamonds in the rough and get his UNC career off to a booming start, or his team would flop and look outmatched by more established college teams. So far, the former New England Patriots head coach hasn’t been close to out-scheming or out-prepping the best teams on North Carolina’s schedule.

UNC held a brief lead in the season opener after striking first against the Horned Frogs at home, but it couldn’t hold on to that magic, and the game simply got out of hand after that. The Tar Heels fell into a 13-0 hole against UCF on Saturday, so in the two games against Big 12 teams, UNC led for a total of six minutes and 47 seconds. North Carolina’s offense produced 222 yards against TCU and 217 against UCF. The Tar Heels reached the endzone three times total in those two games.

The team showed flashes against Charlotte and Richmond of what it wants to be and the players it wants to incorporate, but no other game on the Tar Heels’ ACC schedule offers the same on-paper winning opportunity that those matchups did. And even in those wins, UNC looked flawed offensively. North Carolina managed just 303 yards of offense against Charlotte and 312 against Richmond.

UNC hasn’t found consistency at quarterback yet, either. It hasn’t reached 200 yards passing yet, and Gio Lopez has now exited two games due to injuries. Even if Lopez is able to come back and be available, the team will have to consider whether to lean on him or Max Johnson to start against Clemson based on Lopez’s struggles so far. 

The Tar Heels struggle to extend drives and consistently move the ball down the field. On the season, they are 17-49 on third down, translating to a 34.7% conversion rate.
 
UNC’s defense looked better at stopping the run in the three non-conference games that followed the TCU drubbing, but it still struggled on the perimeter against the Knights in space. UCF managed to get the ball to the sideline on short passes, quickly gaining seven or more yards going up the field after the catch. The Knights scored four offensive touchdowns, though one of their field goal drives benefited from a Lopez interception that placed them at UNC’s 23-yard line. UCF outgained UNC 366-217 on Saturday.

Additionally, the defense couldn’t get to the quarterback against the Horned Frogs and the Knights, rarely generating pressure and going without a sack in both instances. UNC forced just one turnover in the two Big 12 games.

North Carolina may be able to reset and fine-tune some things in the upcoming bye week, and the eight remaining games will come against Clemson, Virginia, Stanford and Duke at home and California, Syracuse, Wake Forest and N.C. State on the road. 

Looking around the league, Syracuse dominated a struggling Clemson team on Saturday, although the Tigers have at least been within striking distance so far against Power Conference teams. As UNC played in Orlando, Duke and N.C. State battled it out in a high-scoring contest at Wallace Wade Stadium. Cal has found success with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele at quarterback. Even Virginia and Stanford have scored 30 or more points in games against ACC teams. 

With an early sample size, North Carolina hasn’t convincingly shown so far that it can defeat or even hang with some of its ACC counterparts through four games.

UNC doesn’t look ready to brave the remainder of the schedule successfully. The limitations on offense and inconsistency on defense have slowed the team down so far, and there aren’t many signs leading to or reasons to hope for improvement. The Tar Heels have a few individual playmakers on both sides of the ball, but Belichick hasn’t rolled out a competitive product relative to the Power Conference level.

The approach for Belichick and his staff was to model North Carolina as a professional program, the NFL’s 33rd team. However, going into conference play, the Tar Heels don’t look ready to contend with the middle of the ACC.