College Football Playoff projections: How will Week 12's action affect Notre Dame?

Notre Dame has been the No. 1 two-loss team in the College Football Playoff rankings since they debuted No. 4. That could very well change after Week 12.

The Irish did their job, dispatching No. 22 Pitt 37-15 in convincing fashion. But the result that could complicate things is No. 11 Oklahoma’s 23-21 win over No. 4 Alabama, which gave the Crimson Tide its second loss and should move the two-loss Sooners into the projected field. No. 10 Texas suffered its third loss at the hands of No. 5 Georgia, 35-10, so the Longhorns are no longer a factor.

Per ESPN’s FPI, Alabama and Oklahoma have the edge over Notre Dame in strength of record (No. 8/No. 10 vs. No. 12) and a significant edge in strength of schedule (No. 4/No. 10 vs. No. 29). Their two-loss resumes should vault the Sooners above the Irish and keep the Tide there as well. But will the CFP Selection Committee, who has immense respect for what it’s seen from Notre Dame on film, watch the win over Pitt and decide that it’s still a better team than Oklahoma and/or Alabama?

One thing is almost certain, though: The Irish should remain in the projected CFP field with three weeks to go. Here’s where the experts think they’ll land on Tuesday.

ESPN’s Heather Dinich: No. 10 seed, at Oregon

“The Irish had no trouble beating Pitt on the road, earning some style points as they showcased everything the committee has already rewarded them for. ‘The committee really likes Notre Dame as a complete team, again, defensively,’ [then-committee chair Mack] Rhoades said. ‘Their run game is as good as anybody, if not the best in the country, when you think about their two backs, [Jeremiyah] Love and [Jadarian] Price. Then [CJ] Carr at the quarterback spot, he’s the third-ranked quarterback in terms of passing efficiency in the country.’ Notre Dame has won eight straight games since its 0-2 start, and the committee continues to note that those losses were by a combined four points to top-20 teams.”

Source: Projecting the College Football Playoff top 12 after Week 12

On3’s Andy Staples: No. 10, at Oklahoma

“The Fighting Irish hammered Pittsburgh on Saturday, and the road gets pretty easy from here. They finish the regular season with Syracuse and Stanford, and neither team looks capable of putting up a fight against Notre Dame. Barring immense chaos above and below, the committee seems pretty comfortable with Notre Dame landing somewhere between No. 8 and No. 10 in the final bracket.”

Source: College Football Playoff Prediction: Oklahoma shakes up the bracket

ESPN staff survey: Split between No. 9 and No. 10

Andrea Adelson: No. 10 seed, at Ole Miss
Kyle Bonagura: No. 10 seed, at Ole Miss
Bill Connelly: No. 9 seed, at Oklahoma
David Hale: No. 10 seed, at Oklahoma
Eli Lederman: No. 10 seed, at Ole Miss
Max Olson: No. 10 seed, at Oregon
Adam Rittenberg: No. 10 seed, at Ole Miss
Mark Schlabach: No. 9 seed, at Oklahoma
Jake Trotter: No. 9 seed, at Oklahoma
Paolo Ugetti: No. 9 seed, at Oklahoma
Dave Wilson: No. 9 seed, at Oklahoma

Note: Each projection that kept Notre Dame at No. 9 dropped Alabama to No. 10 and jumped Oklahoma ahead of the Irish.

Source: College Football Playoff predictions: Who’s most likely to make the field

The Athletic’s Scott Dotcherman: No. 8, vs. Oklahoma

“Alabama’s loss to Oklahoma not only elevated the Sooners into the CFP picture; it sent the Tide tumbling to the final at-large spot. The result led to four big-time first-round matchups, beginning with Alabama traveling west to Ole Miss. It’s no longer an annual game on the SEC schedule, but this meeting would heighten the series’ importance tenfold.

“Oklahoma at Notre Dame would garner the best TV ratings of the opening weekend, while a Texas Tech-North Texas first-round game would have regional appeal.”

Source: College Football Playoff bracket prediction: Alabama clings to final at-large bid after loss to Oklahoma

Athlon Sports’ Steven Lassan: No. 9 seed, at Oklahoma

“After Week 12, the ACC and Big 12 look like one-bid leagues for the playoff, leaving more at-large spots available for SEC and Big Ten contenders. Notre Dame is also two wins away from the field after handling Pitt on Saturday.”

Source: 2025 Bowl Projections after Week 12: Oklahoma Rising, Notre Dame Moves Closer to Playoff Field

CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford: No. 10 seed, at Ole Miss

“Hanging on to our ‘last team in’ designation, the Fighting Irish made easy work of Pitt behind Jeremiyah Love and CJ Carr for their eighth consecutive win. The committee loves Notre Dame, and this team should cruise against Syracuse and Stanford the remaining weeks, locking in a first-round road game unless there’s further chaos. And don’t worry — the committee has already told us how they feel about Miami in this conversation.”

Source: Bowl projections: Georgia moves into first-round bye in College Football Playoff, Oklahoma enters bracket