College Football Playoff projections: Is hosting first round possible for Notre Dame?

While No. 9 Notre Dame certainly did its part, demolishing Syracuse 70-7, the Irish are unlikely to move up in Tuesday’s College Football Playoff rankings.

Why? Everyone ahead of the Irish also won in Week 13.

Notre Dame is ranked just behind No. 8 Oklahoma, who predictably defeated No. 22 Missouri in a 17-6 slugfest. The Sooners didn’t look as good as the Irish, but the committee is probably not dropping a team who beat a ranked opponent behind a team who beat an opponent with three wins. No. 7 Oregon dispatched No. 15 USC easily at home, and No. 6 Ole Miss did not play.

To earn a top-eight host a first-round game in the CFP, Notre Dame must root for Mississippi State to beat Ole Miss, Washington to beat Oregon or LSU to beat OU. All are possible, but none are likely. Also unlikely but still theoretically possible is a very different outcome: Notre Dame being left out of the CFP at 10-2 altogether.

“Although Notre Dame appears safe — and it would certainly be a shock to see it fall out of the playoff field — there is still a nightmare scenario for the Irish,” ESPN’s Heather Dinich said.

The scenario: No. 10 Alabama reaches the SEC Championship game and defeats No. 3 Texas A&M; the Tide would rise ahead of the Irish but the Aggies would not fall behind. Meanwhile, No. 5 Texas Tech loses to No. 11 BYU in the Big 12 championship; the Cougars would earn an auto-bid and the committee would have a choice to make between two-loss Texas Tech and two-loss Notre Dame. Even less likely, No. 18 Michigan doing the funniest thing ever (again) and defeating No. 1 Ohio State could complicate things further.

There is also the looming prospect of No. 13 Miami, who still owns a head-to-head win over the Irish. That could come into play if the Hurricanes keep creeping up, although a close game with No. 22 Pitt — who helped Notre Dame’s résumé with a 42-28 win over No. 16 Georgia Tech on Saturday night — might end that discussion.

To summarize: The most likely outcome remains making the CFP and opening on the road, but there is still an outside chance that could change — one way or the other. Here’s where the national experts have the Irish projected after Week 13.

ESPN’s Heather Dinich: No. 9 seed, at Oklahoma

“The Irish have won nine straight since an 0-2 start, and the committee has considered Notre Dame’s narrow losses to Texas A&M and Miami important factors in its deliberations. One reason Notre Dame was ranked ahead of two-loss Alabama in the third ranking was because the Irish lost by a combined four points to two ranked opponents. Alabama’s season-opening loss to Florida State and its continued inability to run the ball have held it back. The Irish racked up some style points in Saturday’s drubbing of Syracuse, but the committee has already rewarded Notre Dame for its running game and staunch defense. On Saturday, the Irish scored three touchdowns (two on defense and one on special teams) before the offense even took the field. Notre Dame’s best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt.”

Source: Projecting the College Football Playoff top 12 after Week 13

On3’s Andy Staples: No. 9 seed, at Oklahoma

“The Irish crushed Syracuse 70-7, but they weren’t really trying to score style points. If they had been, they might have scored 140. Next up is a Stanford team that Notre Dame should pound, but the Cardinal are coming off a big rivalry win against Cal.”

Source: College Football Playoff Prediction: All eyes turn to Ohio State-Michigan

NBC Sports’ Nicole Auerbach: No. 9 seed, at Oklahoma

“I think we have to bring it up one more time: Notre Dame’s playing as good of football as anybody on that graphic right now. People better stop sleeping on them. They could go to the national championship. They’re that good.” — Chris Simms, discussing Auerbach’s projected bracket

Source: Week 13 CFP bracket with Nicole Auerbach | Big Ten on NBC

The Athletic’s Scott Dotcherman: No. 9 seed, at Oklahoma

“Oregon’s late-season string of wins against Iowa, USC and rival Washington vaults the Ducks to sixth, just ahead of Ole Miss. Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Alabama round out the projected field, just ahead of BYU and Miami.

“In the first round, how about the nation’s top-scoring offense in North Texas traveling to Texas Tech, the No. 3 scoring defense? Or the Rebels hosting the Crimson Tide in a battle between former SEC West foes (no word on whether Lane Kiffin will be there)? Oklahoma is 0-5 all-time against Notre Dame in Norman, but I doubt the Sooners would turn down the home-field advantage. SMU and Oregon have played only twice historically, and both were in Texas-based bowl games (1949 Cotton Bowl, 1963 Sun Bowl).

“Potential quarterfinal matchups include Ohio State playing the Notre Dame-Oklahoma winner in the Rose Bowl.”

Source: College Football Playoff bracket prediction: What conference titles mean for Selection Sunday