College Football Playoff projections: Where will Notre Dame land in initial rankings?

It’s that time of year again. The College Football Playoff Selection Committee will release its initial rankings on Tuesday night, and Notre Dame is in the hunt for a second-straight CFP berth.

Both the AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll have the Irish at No. 10. Will the committee see it the same way? The Irish will likely be a point of contention when these rankings drop, because of one unfortunate outcome on Saturday: Miami’s 26-20 overtime loss to SMU.

Miami beat Notre Dame head-to-head in Week 1, and both have two losses. However, the Irish have looked much better as of late. Every committee weighs head-to-head differently, but until the Hurricanes pick up their third loss, opinions will be split on who should be ranked higher. We’ll find out on Tuesday.

As a reminder, the 12-team College Football Playoff is slightly different than it was last year. It will still consist of the top five conference champions and seven at-large teams, but the teams will be seeded in order of their ranking. The top four conference champions will no longer receive an auto-bye.

Here’s where the experts believe Notre Dame will land in the initial rankings. The numbers listed being the projected playoff seed, not necessarily the ranking itself — although with the new system, those two numbers are much more likely to be the same thing.

ESPN’s Heather Dinich: No. 10 seed, at BYU

“The Irish have now won six straight after their 0-2 start and made a case for a top-10 ranking — with the help of Miami, Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt all possibly falling out. The head-to-head loss to Miami in the season opener will be a discussion point, but it’s one of several tiebreakers, and if the committee feels strongly that Notre Dame is now the better team, it can rank it as such. The Irish got off to a slow start against Boston College on Saturday but eventually pulled away to avoid elimination against a now 1-8 team. Notre Dame’s best win is against USC, and it could have another ranked opponent on its schedule if Pitt works its way into the CFP top 25 on Tuesday. Notre Dame travels to Pitt on Nov. 15. Notre Dame’s improved defense and strong running game could help boost the Irish into a safe ranking spot when it matters the most.”

Source: Projecting the College Football Playoff top 12 after Week 10

On3’s Andy Staples: First four out

“Miami losing to SMU on Saturday was the worst thing that could have happened to Notre Dame, other than an actual Notre Dame loss. Why? Because, unless Miami loses again, the Hurricanes have to stay above the Fighting Irish in any ranking.

“Notre Dame put itself behind the eight ball by losing its season opener at Miami and then losing its home opener against Texas A&M. Because the rest of Notre Dame’s schedule isn’t particularly challenging, these two losses are a huge drag. But as long as Texas A&M and Miami were clear College Football Playoff teams, then there was a path for a 10-2 Notre Dame to make the CFP.

“But with Miami losing for the second time in three weeks, the Hurricanes and the Irish now have identical 6-2 records. Notre Dame’s best win is against USC. Miami’s best win is against Notre Dame. The head-to-head has to matter in an all-other-things-equal situation. Otherwise, why bother playing the games?

“So I don’t have Notre Dame in my projected CFP bracket because I don’t have Miami in it either. If there was one spot remaining, it would go to Miami over Notre Dame. And that won’t change unless Miami loses again.”

Source: College Football Playoff Prediction: ACC shake-up & Notre Dame’s Miami problem

CBS Sports’ Tom Fornelli: No. 10 seed, at Georgia

“There’s a chance 10-2 Miami is up against 10-2 Notre Dame for the final at-large. Common sense says Miami would get the edge there (and should!), but there’s also a chance Notre Dame’s overall resume looks better if Louisville and SMU — the teams Miami lost to — crumble down the stretch. SMU is already 6-3 and has only one home game left, which happens to be against Louisville. Louisville also has games left against Cal, Clemson, and Kentucky.

“Imagine a scenario where Miami’s losses came against a 9-3 Louisville and an 8-4 SMU, while Notre Dame’s losses came against a 10-2 Miami and a Texas A&M team that might win the SEC. Sure, Notre Dame lost to Miami, but it didn’t lose to SMU or Louisville!

“Ah, what a system we’ve created.”

Source: Tom Fornelli’s CFP Vibe Check, Week 10: We fear the Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 are losing bids left and right

The Athletic’s Scott Dotcherman: No. 10 seed, at Ole Miss

“As for this week’s bracket, nothing changed for seeds one through seven. Texas Tech bumped up to No. 8 and a home game, while BYU and Notre Dame make the field as at-large squads.

“A great hypothetical CFP matchup: Indiana vs. the Ole Miss-Notre Dame winner in the Cotton Bowl. If the Hoosiers face the Irish, it’s a rematch of last year’s CFP first-round game at South Bend. If it’s Ole Miss, it pits Indiana against the coach (Lane Kiffin) who chirped the loudest on social media last December when the Hoosiers lost to Notre Dame.”

Source: College Football Playoff bracket prediction: Could Virginia emerge from messy ACC?

On3’s Brett McMurphy: No. 11 seed, at Texas Tech

McMurphy’s projected field is as follows: 1. Ohio State, 2. Texas A&M, 3. Indiana, 4. Alabama, 5. Georgia, 6. Texas Tech, 7. Louisville, 8. Ole Miss, 9. Oregon, 10. BYU, 11. Notre Dame and 12. Memphis.

Source: College Football Bowl Projections Week 11: Full list of matchups, playoff predictions

ESPN staff survey: Ten of 11 experts have Notre Dame in the projected field

ESPN’s staff projections are as follows…

Andrea Adelson: Not in the field
Kyle Bonagura: No. 10 seed
Bill Connelly: No. 10 seed
David Hale: No. 10 seed
Eli Lederman: No. 10 seed
Max Olson: No. 10 seed
Adam Rittenberg: No. 11 seed
Mark Schlabach: No. 10 seed
Jake Trotter: No. 10 seed
Paolo Ugetti: No. 10 seed
Dave Wilson: No. 10 seed

Source: College Football Playoff predictions: Who’s most likely to make the field

Sports Illustrated’s Pat Forde: First four out

Forde’s projected field is as follows: 1. Ohio State, 2. Indiana, 3. Texas A&M, 4. Alabama, 5. Georgia, 6. Mississippi, 7. Oregon, 8. BYU, 9. Texas Tech, 10. Virginia, 11. Louisville and 12. Memphis.

Source: Forde: College Football Playoff Projected Bracket After Week 10

Athlon Sports’ Stephen Lassan: No. 9 seed, at Texas Tech

“Notre Dame returns to the projected field after a win at Boston College, with Georgia Tech dropping out after a loss to NC State.”

Source: 2025 Bowl Projections after Week 10: Notre Dame Rising, ACC Upsets Shake Up Playoff Field