College Football Playoff projections: Will Notre Dame rise after win over Navy?

Notre Dame’s place in the second College Football Playoff rankings is relatively easy to project.

The Irish entered the week at No. 10 and took care of their own business, demolishing Navy 49-10. Of the nine teams ahead of them, only one of them lost: No. 7 BYU fell to No. 8 Texas Tech 29-7. The CFP Selection Committee likely thought the Cougars’ 8-0 start was unsustainable to begin with, given where it ranked them as an undefeated team. Now, it has confirmation and BYU will likely fall behind Notre Dame.

Of the teams immediately behind the Irish, No. 11 Texas, No. 12 Oklahoma and No. 13 Utah did not play. The Longhorns and Sooners will both likely jump Notre Dame if they win road games against No. 5 Georgia and No. 4 Alabama next week, respectively, but that’s a “We’ll cross that bridge when we get to it” situation. Meanwhile, No. 14 Virginia and No. 15 Louisville suffered home losses to Wake Forest and California, respectively. In other words, no one is moving ahead of the Irish this week.

The only question: Does the committee bump Notre Dame ahead of No. 9 Oregon after the Ducks survived No. 20 Iowa, winning 18-16 on a last-second field goal in Iowa City? And the answer, most national experts believe, is no. Here’s where those experts project the Irish to land in Tuesday’s CFP rankings, as well as their projected first-round matchup.

ESPN’s Heather Dinich: No. 9 seed, at Oregon

“Notre Dame had no trouble dismantling an overmatched Navy team that was playing without injured starting quarterback Blake Horvath. It was Notre Dame’s seventh straight win since starting the season 0-2. The committee considered that those two losses in last week’s first ranking were by a total of four points to two CFP top-25 teams, including No. 3 and unbeaten Texas A&M. The committee was also impressed with Notre Dame’s 34-24 win against USC on Oct. 18, and that will continue to resonate with the Trojans improving to 7-2 after Friday’s win against Northwestern.”

Source: Projecting the College Football Playoff top 12 after Week 11

On3’s Andy Staples: No. 9 seed, at Oregon

“If you read this space last week, I wrote that I couldn’t imagine the committee leaving a big gap between Miami and Notre Dame — two teams with identical records that had faced similar competition and played head-to-head. But the committee did rank Notre Dame (the head-to-head loser) eight spots ahead of Miami. So I need to consider that.

“The Irish let Navy get a glimmer of hope early and then slammed the door in a 49-10 win as snow fell on South Bend. Playing without starting QB Blake Horvath, Navy ran for 154 yards in the first half but only 52 in the second. Notre Dame starter C.J. Carr was ruthlessly efficient, completing 13 of 16 passes for 218 yards and three touchdowns. Notre Dame faces its toughest remaining test next week when it plays at Pittsburgh.”

Source: College Football Playoff Prediction: Taking the committee’s advice on Notre Dame

The Athletic’s Scott Dotcherman: No. 9 seed, at Oregon

“As for possible CFP matchups, how about a Texas-Texas Tech first-round game in Lubbock, with the winner facing Texas A&M in New Orleans? What about the first Notre Dame-Oregon meeting since 1982, with the winner heading to the Rose Bowl to play Ohio State? An Alabama-Georgia rematch in the Orange Bowl is a possibility, as is Indiana facing Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl.”

Source: College Football Playoff bracket prediction: Who’s up for Texas vs. Texas Tech in Lubbock?

ESPN staff survey: Everyone has Notre Dame at No. 9

Andrea Adelson: No. 9
Kyle Bonagura: No. 9 seed
Bill Connelly: No. 9 seed
David Hale: No. 9 seed
Eli Lederman: No. 9 seed
Max Olson: No. 9 seed
Adam Rittenberg: No. 9 seed
Mark Schlabach: No. 9 seed
Jake Trotter: No. 9 seed
Paolo Ugetti: No. 9 seed
Dave Wilson: No. 9 seed

Source: College Football Playoff predictions: Who’s most likely to make the field

Athlon Sports’ Stephen Lassan: No. 9 seed, at Oregon

“Notre Dame moved one step closer to the playoff after an easy win over Navy.”

Source: 2025 Bowl Projections after Week 11: Texas Tech Rising, ACC Chaos Shakes Up Playoff Field