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Notre Dame

ESPN FPI: What do initial projections say about Notre Dame?

IMG_7504by: Jack Soble06/03/25jacksoble56
Marcus Freeman explains how he will use Michigan vs. Ohio State to prepare for National Championship
Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman. (Photo by Brett Davis-Imagn Images)

ESPN released its initial Football Power Index rankings and projections Tuesday morning. Here’s what FPI says about Notre Dame.

Notre Dame’s Football Power Index ranking

ESPN’s FPI is designed to estimate the amount of points by which each team would defeat the average college football team. It has the Irish ranked as the No. 7 team in college football entering the summer.

RankingSchoolFPI
1.Texas28.5
2.Georgia26.6
3.Alabama24.2
4.Ohio State23.8
5.Penn State21.5
6.Oregon20.5
7.Notre Dame18.1
8.Texas A&M17.9
9.Miami17.5
10.Tennessee17.4

All the typical national title contenders are here, though FPI likes Georgia and Alabama much more (and Clemson much less) than most human prognosticators. No. 7 is on the low end of where most experts have ranked Notre Dame, which has fallen anywhere from No. 2 to No. 7.

Projections

While ESPN’s SP+ projections gave Notre Dame the No. 1 projected win total in the country, FPI went in a different direction.

Here are FPI’s full projections, ordered by odds to win the national title:

SchoolProj. W-LWin out %6 wins %CFP %Make NC %Win NC %
1. Texas10.4-2.18.999.983.937.724.1
2. Georgia10.1-1-2.36.399.478.630.017.9
3. Ohio State10.4-2.28.699.670.621.310.8
4. Alabama9.6-2.83.998.566.220.210.8
5. Penn State10.2-2.27.099.663.814.47.0
6. Oregon10.0-2.44.499.257.510.44.3
7. Clemson9.7-2.94.798.047.36.82.8
8. Notre Dame9.3-2.77.098.045.67.32.7
9. Miami9.7-2.84.798.146.36.22.7
10. Texas A&M8.1-4.10.392.534.35.52.3

Notre Dame’s projected win total is likely lowered by FPI’s positive evaluations of Miami and Texas A&M, whom the Irish face in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively. If the Irish get past those two teams, one would think their chances of winning out and making the College Football Playoff will shoot up considerably.

Strength of schedule

Notre Dame’s schedule is ranked 38th in college football, behind the entire SEC and all but two teams in the Big Ten (Illinois and Maryland). If the Irish played in the ACC, they would have the sixth-toughest schedule in the league behind Syracuse (No. 17), Florida State (No. 24), Georgia Tech (No. 33), Stanford (No. 35) and Louisville (No. 36).

Notre Dame is projected to play a more difficult regular-season schedule than it dealt with in 2024. According to College Football Network, the Irish had the No. 57 regulars-season strength of schedule last year.

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