Key storylines Notre Dame vs. Duke: rebound game, elite quarterbacks, statistically speaking

No rest for the weary as No. 11 Notre Dame (4-1)  needs to heal its wounds fast after the disappointing 17-14 loss last Saturday to Ohio State and prepare for what will likely be its toughest road test of the season, at No. 17 Duke (4-0).

It seems strange to be talking about Blue Devils football being a tricky opponent. But the quick program turnaround orchestrated by second-year head coach Mike Elko has been remarkable. 

The former Irish defensive coordinator (2017) led the Blue Devils to a 9-4 record during his first season on the job in 2022 and is off to a 4-0 start in 2023.

Following are three storylines to watch Saturday when Notre Dame travels to Durham, N.C., for the second of four consecutive prime-time games for the Irish, and the first game between ranked opponents at Wallace Wade Stadium since November 1994. 

Righting the ship

Coming off the loss to Ohio State, this game against Duke becomes especially ornery for Notre Dame.

For Duke, this might be considered the biggest game in the history of its football program. ESPN’s GameDay will be on campus for the first time in Duke football history for a game that Notre Dame lists as only a 5.5-point favorite. 

It would be natural for the Blue Devils to get overwhelmed by all of the unusual attention and hype for this game. But Elko is doing everything possible to guard against it.

“I told the guys that we’re getting a lot of congratulations for GameDay coming here,” Elko said. “I’d rather wait and get some congratulations for how we play a football game Saturday night and just try to stay focused on the task at hand.”

For Notre Dame, we should know quickly in this game if it was able to wash away the disappointment of the last-second loss to Ohio State and get back on track. 

Not unlike Ohio State, this is another litmus test game for Irish head coach Marcus Freeman, but for very different reasons.

The game against the Buckeyes was a chance for Freeman to show he can coach against, and his team can compete with, the big boys of college football.

Against Duke, it’s a chance for Freeman to prove that he can keep his program moving forward after such a disappointing defeat.

There are no mulligans left for Notre Dame if it hopes to make a College Football Playoff run.

Quarterback comparison

Duke junior quarterback Riley Leonard is picking up where he left off last season when he earned All-ACC honorable mention honors after leading his team in both passing (2,967 yards, 20 touchdowns, 6 interceptions) and rushing (699 yards, 13 touchdowns). 

Through four games this season, Riley (6-foot-4, 212 pounds) was second on the Blue Devils with 238 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns and a robust 8.2-yard per-carry average. 

Through the air, Leonard adds 778 passing yards with a modest 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. 

“The things [Leonard] presents in the run game, he’s a big, physical tough runner,” Freeman said. “He’s accurate in the pass game for what they need him to do. It’s a huge challenge for our team, the biggest one yet.”

For Notre Dame, grad quarterback Sam Hartman continues to be every bit as good as advertised. 

Through five games, Hartman ranked third nationally in passing efficiency, behind only Caleb Williams at USC and Michael Penix Jr., at Washington, the two early frontrunners for the Heisman Trophy.

Hartman is also third in the country with 14 touchdown passes. He has yet to throw an interception and is completing 70.4 percent of his passes. 

Hartman faced Duke twice in his career while playing for Wake Forest, going 1-1 in those starts.

Despite throwing for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Blue Devils last year, Hartman was picked off once and lost to Duke 34-31.

This will be one of the better quarterback matchups in any college game this season. 

“Listen, you can be living a cardboard box somewhere and know that Sam Hartman’s a really talented quarterback at the college level,” Elko said. “He’s really good. We’re going to have to figure out how to control them as best we can.”

Statistically speaking

Notre Dame hasn’t lost to an ACC opponent in the regular season in 29 games but this will be one of its toughest tests to keep that winning streak active. 

Following the lead of its defensive-minded head coach, Duke has thrived on that side of the ball. 

The Blue Devils allow only 8.8 points per game, the fourth-best mark in the country, and rank fourth in pass efficiency defense. 

With two blocked kicks and a nation’s best 48.40 net punting average, Duke has also been terrific with its special teams. 

Notre Dame has also been solid defensively. It ranks seventh in total defense (260.6 ypg), second in pass efficiency defense and 15th in scoring defense (12.8 ppg).

For a game that features two of the best quarterbacks in the country, this surprisingly could become a defensive-dominated game.