How much total production does the Notre Dame offense return? ESPN analyst Bill Connelly’s formula has an answer
Finding Notre Dame in ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly’s returning production rankings usually requires scrolling for a few seconds. Three digits have preceded Notre Dame twice since the rankings’ debuted before the 2015 season. The Irish finished higher than 83rd only one time between 2016 and 2022.
This year, though, they’re up near the top third. Notre Dame is 44th in Connelly’s initial 2023 returning productions rankings, which were released Tuesday. (They will update again in May). That’s the third-highest placement in nine all-time rankings, behind only 2015 (33rd) and 2018 (20th).
All told, Notre Dame returns 68 percent of its production from 2022. That’s according to a formula Connelly created, not merely a percentage of returning starters. Transfer additions are included in it.
On offense, Notre Dame returns 65 percent of its production, which ranks 67th. Here’s a look at how Connelly determined it. The defensive figure will be examined in a separate story later Tuesday.
The formula
Connelly’s exact formula changes by year, but has the same overall concept. On offense, he tracks the percentage of returning wide receiver or tight end receiving yards, quarterback passing yards, offensive line snaps and running back rushing yards and assigns a weight to each of them.
This year’s weights, according to Connelly:
• Quarterback passing yards: 23 percent
• Running back rushing yards: 6 percent
• Receiver/tight end yards: 24 percent of the overall number
• Returning OL snaps: 47 percent
Those weights are influenced by prior years’ data and what positions proved to be the most important returners (or created the biggest holes by having fewer returners), not numbers Connelly randomly decides himself.
Notre Dame’s returning offensive personnel
At quarterback, Notre Dame lost 76 percent of its passing yards when Drew Pyne left for the portal and chose Arizona State. But the Irish gained Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman, who counts as a returning starter in Connelly’s formula even though he didn’t play for the Irish. Hartman threw for 3,701 yards, 38 touchdowns and 12 interceptions last season.
Notre Dame returns 100 percent of its running back rushing yards. Audric Estime (920), Logan Diggs (821), Chris Tyree (444) and Gi’Bran Payne (2) accounted for all of them in 2022, and all four are back. Running backs, though, get the least weight in returning production.
Tight end Michael Mayer (team-high 809 receiving yards) declared for the NFL Draft. Receiver Braden Lenzy (309 yards, fourth) declined a sixth year and retired from football. Those are the only two departed receivers or tight ends who caught a pass last year. Notre Dame added Virginia Tech grad transfer receiver Kaleb Smith, who led the Hokies with 673 yards in 2022.
Notre Dame loses two of its five offensive line starters, left guard Jarrett Patterson and right guard Josh Lugg. Those two started 12 and 13 games last season, respectively. Everyone else who played a snap is back. Still, two departed starters on the unit that gets the most weight will drag down the overall returning production number.
